Article
|
Open Access
Featured
-
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreasing ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wavefield since the late 20th century
Ocean waves induce geographically extensive seafloor forces that excite a continuous and globally detectable seismic wavefield. This study infers global near-coastal average wave energy intensification at a rate of 0.27% per year since the late 1980’s, and 0.35% per year since January 2000.
- Richard C. Aster
- , Adam T. Ringler
- & Thomas A. Lee
-
Article
| Open AccessRecent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
By analyzing historical and Argo observations, the authors find that the warming of mode and intermediate water layers drives most of the global upper 2000 m ocean warming, highlighting the outsized heat uptake by regional water masses in both hemispheres.
- Zhi Li
- , Matthew H. England
- & Sjoerd Groeskamp
-
Article
| Open AccessUrban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century
Considering changes in urban land extent, population, and climate over the 21st century, the authors find spatial urban land patterns can reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, at regional scales.
- Jing Gao
- & Melissa S. Bukovsky
-
Article
| Open AccessHeat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends
Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- , Julien Cattiaux
- & Pascal Yiou
-
Article
| Open AccessWildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales
This paper shows that weather and fuel precursors show complementary predictability of wildfires extending across different timescales, which may be leveraged for seasonal or interannual wildfire prediction.
- Yuquan Qu
- , Diego G. Miralles
- & Carsten Montzka
-
Article
| Open AccessClimate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale
Global-scale structural connectivity is modeled by tectonic and climate processes. Modeling suggests that as the climate warms, it could lead to increased erosion in source areas, while decreased rainfall may hinder sediment flow downstream.
- Alexander T. Michalek
- , Gabriele Villarini
- & Admin Husic
-
Article
| Open AccessDynamic redox and nutrient cycling response to climate forcing in the Mesoproterozoic ocean
Regional ocean redox variability and associated nutrient cycling in the Mesoproterozoic can be explained by climate forcing at individual locations, rather than specific events or step-changes in global oceanic redox conditions.
- Yafang Song
- , Fred T. Bowyer
- & Simon W. Poulton
-
Article
| Open AccessArctic weather variability and connectivity
The authors use a complexity-based approach to analyze Arctic weather variability. They identify a pronounced link between the Arctic’s shrinking sea ice and global weather patterns, underscoring the critical role of the Arctic in shaping global climate.
- Jun Meng
- , Jingfang Fan
- & Jürgen Kurths
-
Article
| Open AccessImpacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
This study quantifies mid-21st century hourly building energy use in 277 urban areas in the USA, revealing spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes influenced by future climate, population dynamics, and electric power sector decarbonization.
- Chenghao Wang
- , Jiyun Song
- & Robert B. Jackson
-
Article
| Open AccessVertical structures of marine heatwaves
The authors identify four main types of vertical structures of marine heatwaves, with different impact depths and spatio-temporal distributions, that are influenced by multiscale ocean dynamical processes.
- Ying Zhang
- , Yan Du
- & Alistair J. Hobday
-
Article
| Open AccessWarming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes
This paper shows that the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions is constant due to complex interactions of physical and biogeochemical processes, and not because heat and carbon are mixed into the ocean by similar processes.
- Nathan P. Gillett
-
Article
| Open AccessMoisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
- Pavan Harika Raavi
- , Jung-Eun Chu
- & Kevin J. E. Walsh
-
Article
| Open AccessEnhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming
Using output from climate models, this study shows that a wetter mean state over the off-equatorial eastern Pacific is the single key driver of the enhanced impact of northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO under anthropogenic global warming.
- Hyun-Su Jo
- & Yoo-Geun Ham
-
Article
| Open AccessFuture precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect
A new emergent constraint on precipitation projection, based on a unified surface-energy-balance perspective that links hydrological and climate sensitivity to climatological cloud distribution, suggests a higher increase in global mean precipitation under climate change.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
-
Article
| Open AccessEnhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
The study identifies windows of opportunity for multi-year climate predictions, depending on the state of ENSO. Predictions started during El Niño and La Niña exhibit higher skill than predictions started during neutral ENSO conditions.
- Yiling Liu
- , Markus. G. Donat
- & Carlos Delgado-Torres
-
Article
| Open AccessClimate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures
The effects of climate change on the yield and aroma of beer hops remains unknown. Here the authors demonstrate a climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of traditional aroma hops across Europe and calls for urgent adaptation measures to stabilize international market chains.
- Martin Mozny
- , Miroslav Trnka
- & Ulf Büntgen
-
Article
| Open AccessA cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Will snow become cleaner or dirtier in the future? Using Earth System Model simulations, this study reveals a cleaner snow future and highlights its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt.
- Dalei Hao
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
-
Article
| Open AccessUnchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska
This study triples the number of previously known glacial lake outbursts in Alaska, documenting 1150 events over 35 years. The frequency of events did not change over time but total lake volume decreased, likely reducing the regional flood hazard.
- B. Rick
- , D. McGrath
- & W. H. Armstrong
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing
The effective hygroscopicity of organic matter and inorganic ions in atmospheric aerosols can be efficiently and accurately parameterized by global average values to constrain a critically important aspect in climate and Earth system models
- Mira L. Pöhlker
- , Christopher Pöhlker
- & Ulrich Pöschl
-
Article
| Open AccessSustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation
Sustainable development of blue carbon has increased globally over the past two decades. Global cooperation could enable countries to improve blue carbon sustainable development, increase carbon sequestration, and generate up to $136.34 million in 2030 in economic benefits.
- Cuicui Feng
- , Guanqiong Ye
- & Zhenci Xu
-
Article
| Open AccessCarbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications
Dixit et al. trace emissions from the extraction and transport of oil. They quantify emissions variability among crude blends and suggest how this variability could be used to further reduce emissions under scenarios for reduced future oil demand.
- Yash Dixit
- , Hassan El-Houjeiri
- & Steven R. H. Barrett
-
Article
| Open AccessEast Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are found to be synchronized at the subseasonal timescale via a Rossby wave triggered by the Indian summer monsoon heating. The impact on East Asian precipitation varies with the subtropical jet structure.
- Shixue Li
- , Tomonori Sato
- & Wenkai Guo
-
Article
| Open AccessNonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
Here the authors find economic damage from El Niño far greater than benefits from La Niña on the global economy, leading to an increased economic loss as ENSO variability intensifies under greenhouse warming.
- Yi Liu
- , Wenju Cai
- & Ying Zhang
-
Article
| Open AccessAir quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy
U.S. federal climate policies can reduce air pollutant emissions and associated health impacts from fine particulate matter. However, near-term CO2 reductions alone are insufficient to address racial/ethnic disparities in pollution exposure.
- Paul Picciano
- , Minghao Qiu
- & Noelle E. Selin
-
Article
| Open AccessDrought as a possible contributor to the Visigothic Kingdom crisis and Islamic expansion in the Iberian Peninsula
Here, the authors compile pollen records from across Iberia and Morocco, comparing them with other paleohydrological and archaeological data, as well as historical sources. Using these data, they suggest that a series of strong droughts could have contributed to the decline of the Visigothic Kingdom and subsequent Islamic expansion.
- Jon Camuera
- , Francisco J. Jiménez-Espejo
- & Manuel Castro-Priego
-
Article
| Open AccessMuted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models
The degree of warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted in the low equilibrium climate sensitivity models can be underestimated due to their deficiencies in depicting seasonal low-cloud variations over the extra-tropics.
- Xianan Jiang
- , Hui Su
- & Gregory Elsaesser
-
Article
| Open AccessNorth African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
-
Article
| Open AccessAccounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature
Efforts to retain or increase land carbon pools are hampered by the risk of loss to natural or human disturbances. The proposed approach to tonne-year accounting could effectively quantify and track the climate value of both temporary and permanent carbon storage.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Kirsten Zickfeld
- & Amy Luers
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations
- John Liggio
- & Shao-Meng Li
-
Article
| Open AccessImpacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable
This study examines the effect of four marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predators, revealing a wide-array of predator responses both among and within heatwaves. Predator responses were highly predictable, demonstrating capacity for early warning systems of heatwave impacts, similar to weather forecasts.
- Heather Welch
- , Matthew S. Savoca
- & Elliott L. Hazen
-
Article
| Open AccessHeterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands
The high-resolution global model of soil temperature and snow cover change in mountain ecosystems developed here shows that areas nearby glaciers are warming faster than other mountain regions, and these effects are particularly rapid in tropical mountains.
- Silvio Marta
- , Anaïs Zimmer
- & Gentile Francesco Ficetola
-
Article
| Open AccessThe challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China
Estimating health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of significance for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.9. Here, the authors show that population aging is expected to be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 in China by 2035, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare.
- Fangjin Xu
- , Qingxu Huang
- & Brett A. Bryan
-
Article
| Open AccessRapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
The risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
- Samuel Lüthi
- , Christopher Fairless
- & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
-
Article
| Open AccessAdoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties increases agricultural production, consumption, and smallholder commercialization in West Africa
The adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties has the potential to build farmers’ climate resilience. Here, the authors show that adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties in West Africa benefits all households, with the biggest gains accruing to small-scale farmers.
- Martin Paul Jr Tabe-Ojong
- , Jourdain C. Lokossou
- & Hippolyte D. Affognon
-
Article
| Open AccessRecent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been occurring closer to land since 1980 due to climate change. This shift can degenerate the forecast skill and increase the danger that tropical cyclones pose to coastal regions.
- Yi Li
- , Youmin Tang
- & Qiang Wang
-
Article
| Open AccessAdjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Emerging limitations on climate and low-carbon technology would require adjusting our 15.C climate change mitigation pathways. However, this could increase average annual emissions reductions to around 3GtCO2/year using a broad portfolio of mitigation measures.
- Ajay Gambhir
- , Shivika Mittal
- & Jason A. Lowe
-
Perspective
| Open AccessStorylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
Climate model ensemble boosting can yield physically coherent storylines for record-shattering climate extremes such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Combining information from storyline approaches with process understanding can inform planning for future extremes of unprecedented intensity.
- E. M. Fischer
- , U. Beyerle
- & R. Knutti
-
Article
| Open AccessEmergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
- Liam Lachs
- , Simon D. Donner
- & James R. Guest
-
Article
| Open AccessExperimental impacts of grazing on grassland biodiversity and function are explained by aridity
Experimental evidence on the long-term impacts of livestock grazing on biodiversity and function is limited. Here, the authors show that grazing impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions are aggravated with aridity using experimental sites across an aridity gradient.
- Minna Zhang
- , Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo
- & Ling Wang
-
Article
| Open AccessNational quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
-
Article
| Open AccessSoil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling induces non-linear warming via the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which exerts an accelerating effect on global warming and on extremely high temperatures.
- Liang Qiao
- , Zhiyan Zuo
- & Kaiwen Zhang
-
Article
| Open AccessTruck platooning reshapes greenhouse gas emissions of the integrated vehicle-road infrastructure system
Truck platooning allows for trucks to travel synchronously in close proximity to improve fuel efficiency. Here, authors evaluate the decarbonization effects of platooning on the vehicle-road system at a large-scale road network level revealing a trade-off between emission reduction and cost rise.
- Huailei Cheng
- , Yuhong Wang
- & Tian Jin
-
Article
| Open AccessHow climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states
In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord.
- Parrish Bergquist
- & Christopher Warshaw
-
Article
| Open AccessHolocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations
Southern Oman speleothem oxygen isotope and multi-proxy data reveal diverse changes in the Afro-Indian summer monsoon circulations and local hydroclimate conditions during the Holocene, confirming climate model simulations.
- Ye Tian
- , Dominik Fleitmann
- & Hai Cheng
-
Article
| Open AccessDecadal changes in Atlantic overturning due to the excessive 1990s Labrador Sea convection
Using high-resolution model experiments, the authors identify the rapid spreading of mid-depth density anomalies from the Labrador to the Irminger Sea as a prime mechanism in the generation of decadal changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.
- C. W. Böning
- , P. Wagner
- & A. Biastoch
-
Article
| Open AccessWarning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
- Peter Ditlevsen
- & Susanne Ditlevsen
-
Article
| Open AccessFuture increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- , Matthew D. K. Priestley
- & Jennifer L. Catto
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation
Increased global land precipitation, due to the atmospheric feedbacks of large-scale bioenergy cultivation, may partially compensate the water consumption by such rainfed bioenergy crops at the global scale.
- Zhao Li
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Wei Li
-
Article
| Open AccessQBO deepens MJO convection
This paper shows that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within Madden-Julian oscillation envelopes is facilitated by mean state changes in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere during easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation winters.
- Daeho Jin
- , Daehyun Kim
- & Lazaros Oreopoulos