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| Open AccessWide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world
This study reveals a widening range of projected North Atlantic climate states in the mid-twenty-first century. The distinct trajectories seen in sea surface temperatures are activated by global warming and may enable skillful long-lead decadal predictions.
- Qinxue Gu
- , Melissa Gervais
- & Shang-Ping Xie
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Article
| Open AccessSystematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing
Carbon pricing policies are adopted in many countries around the world to mitigate climate change. This systematic review shows that significant emission reductions of between 5 and 21% are achieved by at least 17 out of 21 reviewed policy schemes.
- Niklas Döbbeling-Hildebrandt
- , Klaas Miersch
- & Jan C. Minx
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| Open AccessCarbon storage through China’s planted forest expansion
The dynamics of planted forests in China over the past three decades have contributed ~1198tg of above-ground carbon storage.
- Kai Cheng
- , Haitao Yang
- & Qinghua Guo
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| Open AccessGlobal projections of heat exposure of older adults
By 2050 > 23% of the global population aged 69 + will live in climates with acute heat exposure– the 95th percentile of the distribution of maximum daily temperatures–greater than the critical threshold of 37.5C, compared with 14% in 2020, an increase of 177–246 million older adults exposed to dangerous acute heat.
- Giacomo Falchetta
- , Enrica De Cian
- & Deborah Carr
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| Open AccessFinancial markets value skillful forecasts of seasonal climate
Traders of financial options bet that firms’ stock prices will be affected by forecasts of seasonal climate produced by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Firms are exposed throughout the economy, and traders spend more to hedge the news from more skillful forecasts
- Derek Lemoine
- & Sarah Kapnick
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| Open AccessAutomatic detection of methane emissions in multispectral satellite imagery using a vision transformer
Accurate monitoring of methane emissions is essential to understand its contribution to global warming. The authors here employ multi-spectral satellite data to create a methane detection tool with global coverage and high temporal and spatial resolution.
- Bertrand Rouet-Leduc
- & Claudia Hulbert
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| Open AccessAnthropogenic forcings reverse a simulated multi-century naturally-forced Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell intensification
The authors find an unprecedented human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation in recent and coming decades, contrasting with the naturally-forced simulated strengthening over the preindustrial last millennium.
- Or Hess
- & Rei Chemke
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| Open AccessHuman-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature
The authors reveal a 3.9% intensification in the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle over the past four decades, with hotspot regions experiencing intensification of up to 10%. This intensification extends throughout the mixed layer, amplifying the seasonal cycle of upper-ocean oxygenation.
- Fukai Liu
- , Fengfei Song
- & Yiyong Luo
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| Open AccessHigh-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding
A hindcast experiment of the 2021 summer flood in West Germany unveils a 17-hour lead time for preparedness and advisable action, holding promise for impact-based forecasting of inundated roads, railways and building footprint in real-time.
- Husain Najafi
- , Pallav Kumar Shrestha
- & Luis Samaniego
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Article
| Open AccessSpeed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios
Hueholt et al. find that considering how the rate of temperature change contributes to ecosystem risk helps inform future hypothetical design of climate intervention scenarios
- Daniel M. Hueholt
- , Elizabeth A. Barnes
- & Ariel L. Morrison
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| Open AccessWeakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate
The authors show that the influence of the western Indian Ocean on Antarctic sea ice variability in austral spring has been weakening under greenhouse global warming.
- Li Zhang
- , Xuya Ren
- & Lixin Wu
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| Open AccessEnhanced atmospheric oxidation toward carbon neutrality reduces methane’s climate forcing
Atmospheric chemistry-climate model projections reveal an increase in global hydroxyl radical concentrations on the path toward carbon neutrality in the 21st century. This consequently benefits methane mitigation.
- Mingxu Liu
- , Yu Song
- & Tong Zhu
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| Open AccessGlobal energy use and carbon emissions from irrigated agriculture
The global energy and carbon footprint of irrigation remain uncertain. Here, the authors show that energy consumption and carbon emissions from irrigation are primarily driven by groundwater pumping and are significant in major agricultural nations.”
- Jingxiu Qin
- , Weili Duan
- & Lorenzo Rosa
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| Open AccessMeta-analysis indicates better climate adaptation and mitigation performance of hybrid engineering-natural coastal defence measures
This meta-analysis compares the performance of hard, hybrid, soft and natural coastal defence measures. Results show that all measures have a positive economic return over 20 years yet hybrid measures perform best for climate adaptation and mitigation.
- Lam Thi Mai Huynh
- , Jie Su
- & Alexandros Gasparatos
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| Open AccessNortheast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections
Atmospheric wave trains, triggered by increased rainfall over the Mediterranean and decreased rainfall over the North Atlantic, can induce a high-pressure anomaly over the Northeast Pacific, which is crucial for warm blob development in the cold season.
- Jian Shi
- , Hao Huang
- & Xiaopei Lin
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| Open AccessDecreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming
This study shows that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole robustly weakens due to long-term warming. The findings provide compelling evidence for an anthropogenic influence on the Indian Ocean Dipole intensity.
- Soong-Ki Kim
- , Hyo-Jin Park
- & Jong-Seong Kug
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Article
| Open AccessIntermediate soil acidification induces highest nitrous oxide emissions
Intermediate soil acidification alters the denitrifier community composition and induces high nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, which contributes to the observed acceleration of N2O emissions from global soils
- Yunpeng Qiu
- , Yi Zhang
- & Shuijin Hu
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| Open AccessAccounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration
Restoring tree cover is a prominent climate solution but can cause global warming due to changes in albedo. This paper maps albedo and carbon changes from restoring tree cover to highlight where the greatest net climate benefits can be achieved.
- Natalia Hasler
- , Christopher A. Williams
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
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| Open AccessThe role of mountains in shaping the global meridional overturning circulation
This paper presents quantitative evaluation of the role of different continental mountains in shaping the global meridional overturning circulation. The Tibetan Plateau is likely to have been crucial in molding the global thermohaline circulation.
- Haijun Yang
- , Rui Jiang
- & Jiangping Huang
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| Open AccessClimate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes
Earth system modeling is used to project future changes in North American wetlands. Climate change will reduce inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes, with substantial summer drying and shrinkage in cold regions.
- Donghui Xu
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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| Open AccessThe potential of urban irrigation for counteracting carbon-climate feedback
This study shows that urban irrigation is capable of achieving the environmental co-benefit of heat mitigation and carbon neutrality and has the potential to counteract the climate–carbon feedback loop in the U.S. urban environment.
- Peiyuan Li
- , Zhi-Hua Wang
- & Chenghao Wang
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| Open AccessPitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
The authors show that a regularly used temperature extreme metric leads to a systematic underestimation of the expected extreme frequency of up to − 75% and propagates to other derived metrics. A simple bias correction is presented to eliminate this error.
- Lukas Brunner
- & Aiko Voigt
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Coastal shoreline change assessments at global scales
- Rafael Almar
- , Julien Boucharel
- & Erwin W. J. Bergsma
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| Open AccessThe atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies
The global atlas of unburnable oil shows that the most socio-environmentally sensitive areas, such as protected areas or biodiversity hotspots, need to be kept entirely off-limits to oil extraction in order to keep global warming under 1.5 °C.
- Lorenzo Pellegrini
- , Murat Arsel
- & Martí Orta-Martínez
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| Open AccessMarine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux
This work leverages a new diet database and six long term monitoring efforts of 361 taxa to build comparable pre- and post-heatwave ecosystem models. The study provides empirical demonstration of changes in ecosystem-wide patterns of energy flux and biomass in response to marine heatwaves.
- Dylan G. E. Gomes
- , James J. Ruzicka
- & Joshua D. Stewart
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| Open AccessAerosol forcing regulating recent decadal change of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau
Inhomogeneous aerosol forcing in Eurasia dominates the recent decadal increase of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau by decreasing the water vapor export from its eastern boundary.
- Zhili Wang
- , Yadong Lei
- & Xiaoye Zhang
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| Open AccessPolicy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast
Subsidies for coastal management and tax advantages for high-income property owners dampen the negative effects of climate risks on coastal property values. Without subsidies or tax advantages market prices better reflect climate risks, but coastal gentrification could accelerate.
- Dylan E. McNamara
- , Martin D. Smith
- & Craig E. Landry
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Article
| Open AccessSystematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change
Global warming targets are considered inadequate to protect coral reefs, but this prognosis is based on models with similar approaches. This systematic review of studies that project coral responses to climate change found that divergent modelling methodologies had discrepancies in coral reef outcomes, and that those used for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other methods.
- Shannon G. Klein
- , Cassandra Roch
- & Carlos M. Duarte
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| Open AccessThe role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been increasing faster over the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector in recent decades. The observed phase shift of interdecadal climate oscillations is key to explaining this disparity in Arctic AR trends.
- Weiming Ma
- , Hailong Wang
- & Wieslaw Maslowski
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Comment
| Open AccessPlastic pollution amplified by a warming climate
Climate change and plastic pollution are interconnected global challenges. Rising temperatures and moisture alter plastic characteristics, contributing to waste, microplastic generation, and release of hazardous substances. Urgent attention is essential to comprehend and address these climate-driven effects and their consequences.
- Xin-Feng Wei
- , Wei Yang
- & Mikael S. Hedenqvist
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| Open AccessPublic perceptions and support of climate intervention technologies across the Global North and Global South
This article establishes a global baseline of public perceptions of climate-intervention technologies. Publics across the global South are more favorable and supportive but concerned about impacts on mitigation and unequal burdens of risks on poor countries.
- Chad M. Baum
- , Livia Fritz
- & Benjamin K. Sovacool
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| Open AccessSustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations
Atmospheric measurements show that China’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride, grew rapidly between 2011 and 2021. This rise could offset some of China’s progress towards its greenhouse gas emission reduction goal.
- Minde An
- , Ronald G. Prinn
- & Matthew Rigby
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| Open AccessThe inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program
A new study shows that deforestation of Amazon mangroves releases up to four times more carbon dioxide when compared to emissions arising from terrestrial biomes. This study set a foundation for the use of mangroves in Brazil’s international policy agreements.
- Angelo F. Bernardino
- , Ana Carolina A. Mazzuco
- & J. Boone Kauffman
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| Open AccessExploring the variances of climate change opinions in Germany at a fine-grained local scale
Mewes and colleagues show substantial and systematic differences in public climate change opinions across Germany that manifest between urban vs. rural and prospering vs. declining areas. Besides these geographic features, more complex historical and cultural differences between places play an important role.
- Lars Mewes
- , Leonie Tuitjer
- & Peter Dirksmeier
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| Open AccessEmergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming
The authors combine climate simulations with observations to estimate carbon budgets which are better constrained and find they are more than 10% larger than the mean value from CMIP6 models.
- Peter M. Cox
- , Mark S. Williamson
- & Rebecca M. Varney
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessField experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming
- Chao Yue
- , Jinshi Jian
- & Ben Bond-Lamberty
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Article
| Open AccessCCl4 emissions in eastern China during 2021–2022 and exploration of potential new sources
The Montreal Protocol globally phased out ozone-layer depleting CCl4 by 2010. However, atmospheric measurements show eastern China emitted ~7.6 gigagrams/year in 2021–2022. Further, industrial sources of ongoing CCL4 emissions are identified.
- Bowei Li
- , Jiahuan Huang
- & Xuekun Fang
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| Open AccessModern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years
Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years.
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- , Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- & Valdir Felipe Novello
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| Open AccessAnthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
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| Open AccessHistorical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming
The tropical Pacific has exhibited a complex warming pattern since the 1950s. The authors here identify the critical role of the wind-driven ocean circulation in this warming pattern, and especially for the enhanced warming of the eastern Pacific.
- Shuo Fu
- , Shineng Hu
- & Yiqun Tian
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Article
| Open AccessTransition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
It is unclear how indirect CO2 effect – via associated climate change – on vegetation carbon uptake changes globally. Here, the authors show that such initial positive effect has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.
- Zefeng Chen
- , Weiguang Wang
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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| Open AccessReal-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change
Over 13 years, coastal Louisiana’s wetlands have been endangered by a sea-level rise rate comparable to what is expected later this century. While the rate may not persist over the next few decades, this natural experiment indicates a 75% drowning of these wetlands by 2070 under current carbon emissions.
- Guandong Li
- , Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
- & Sönke Dangendorf
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| Open AccessSediment discharge from Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers is linked with surface melt
As Greenland’s huge calving glaciers melt, they pump sediment deep into biologically rich fjords. In this study, the quantity and path of this sediment is tracked and an empirical relationship is found between sediment and the amount of surface melt on the glacier.
- Camilla S. Andresen
- , Nanna B. Karlsson
- & Ida E. Gundel
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Article
| Open AccessPolar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period
Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Here, the authors follow 20 different polar bears on land over 3 years and measure daily energy expenditure finding that despite behavioural and diet plasticity the bears are at risk of starvation.
- Anthony M. Pagano
- , Karyn D. Rode
- & Charles T. Robbins
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| Open AccessMapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory
Due to fundamental anatomical and biochemical differences, C3 and C4 plant species tend to differ in their biogeography and response to climate change. Here, the authors use global observations and optimality theory to map patterns and temporal trends in C4 species distribution and the contribution of C4 plants to global photosynthesis.
- Xiangzhong Luo
- , Haoran Zhou
- & Christopher J. Still
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Article
| Open AccessDansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the penultimate and last glacial period recorded in stalagmites from Türkiye
Abrupt millennial-scale climate variability, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, characterized the last glacial. Stalagmite data from northern Türkiye show D-O events for the penultimate glacial period, though they were less frequent.
- F. Held
- , H. Cheng
- & D. Fleitmann
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| Open AccessContribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
West Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
- Diana Erazo
- , Luke Grant
- & Simon Dellicour
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Article
| Open AccessProcess-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
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Comment
| Open AccessOpening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts
Combining ocean predictions with physiological understanding yields the ability to forecast habitat multiple years into the future for a wide variety of marine organisms. However, several challenges remain before we see the regular production and use of marine habitat forecasts.
- Mark R. Payne