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Emergence of decadal linkage between Western Australian coast and Western–central tropical Pacific
This study identifies a decadal link between sea surface temperatures off Western Australia and the western-central tropical Pacific that has emerged since 1985. Driven by external forcings and the rapid changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, it may impact future climate.
- Yuewen Ding
- , Pengfei Lin
- & Weiqing Han
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Article
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Human-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature
The authors reveal a 3.9% intensification in the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle over the past four decades, with hotspot regions experiencing intensification of up to 10%. This intensification extends throughout the mixed layer, amplifying the seasonal cycle of upper-ocean oxygenation.
- Fukai Liu
- , Fengfei Song
- & Yiyong Luo
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Article
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Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections
Atmospheric wave trains, triggered by increased rainfall over the Mediterranean and decreased rainfall over the North Atlantic, can induce a high-pressure anomaly over the Northeast Pacific, which is crucial for warm blob development in the cold season.
- Jian Shi
- , Hao Huang
- & Xiaopei Lin
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Article
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Aerosol forcing regulating recent decadal change of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau
Inhomogeneous aerosol forcing in Eurasia dominates the recent decadal increase of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau by decreasing the water vapor export from its eastern boundary.
- Zhili Wang
- , Yadong Lei
- & Xiaoye Zhang
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Article
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The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been increasing faster over the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector in recent decades. The observed phase shift of interdecadal climate oscillations is key to explaining this disparity in Arctic AR trends.
- Weiming Ma
- , Hailong Wang
- & Wieslaw Maslowski
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Article
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Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
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Article
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Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
West Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
- Diana Erazo
- , Luke Grant
- & Simon Dellicour
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Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
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Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
In recent decades, land warming over the Middle East and a northward shift of the low-level jet in the atmosphere have led to unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall increase over Pakistan and northwestern India, areas that used to be arid to semi-arid.
- Baosheng Li
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
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Article
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Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
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Article
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Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales
This paper shows that weather and fuel precursors show complementary predictability of wildfires extending across different timescales, which may be leveraged for seasonal or interannual wildfire prediction.
- Yuquan Qu
- , Diego G. Miralles
- & Carsten Montzka
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Article
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Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications
Dixit et al. trace emissions from the extraction and transport of oil. They quantify emissions variability among crude blends and suggest how this variability could be used to further reduce emissions under scenarios for reduced future oil demand.
- Yash Dixit
- , Hassan El-Houjeiri
- & Steven R. H. Barrett
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations
- John Liggio
- & Shao-Meng Li
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Article
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Adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties increases agricultural production, consumption, and smallholder commercialization in West Africa
The adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties has the potential to build farmers’ climate resilience. Here, the authors show that adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties in West Africa benefits all households, with the biggest gains accruing to small-scale farmers.
- Martin Paul Jr Tabe-Ojong
- , Jourdain C. Lokossou
- & Hippolyte D. Affognon
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National quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
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Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover
A shift in summer atmospheric circulation has accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt. The authors show that diminished North American snow cover supports these conditions by inducing a stationary Rossby wave that favors high pressure over Greenland.
- Jonathon R. Preece
- , Thomas L. Mote
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
Sea level rise along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast has accelerated since 2010 due to changes in steric expansion and the ocean’s circulation. The acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and natural climate variability.
- Sönke Dangendorf
- , Noah Hendricks
- & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
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Article
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Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980
This study finds that the abnormally high frequency of extreme El Niño and central Pacific El Niño events over the past four decades can be attributed to the synchronized effects of greenhouse warming and internal variability.
- Ruyu Gan
- , Qi Liu
- & Xichen Li
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Understanding variability in petroleum jet fuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to inform aviation decarbonization
This study presents a global well-to-wake assessment of jet fuel greenhouse gas emissions with a range of 81.1-94.8 gCO2e MJ−1. Understanding this variability can improve decision-making amid the transition to decarbonizing aviation.
- Liang Jing
- , Hassan M. El-Houjeiri
- & Joule A. Bergerson
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Article
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An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability
Increases in high-impact marine heatwaves over the past few decades are found to be due to recent acceleration in long-term ocean surface warming, stressing the need of careful attribution of climate change impact on extreme events.
- Tongtong Xu
- , Matthew Newman
- & Michael A. Alexander
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Article
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Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity
Historical latitudinal and seasonal trends in global soil moisture aridity are attributable to greenhouse gas emissions.
- Yaoping Wang
- , Jiafu Mao
- & Yongjiu Dai
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A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification
This study shows intensification rates of tropical cyclones around the world have significantly increased, and environmental conditions around storms are becoming more favorable. Human-caused climate change is contributing to both trends.
- Kieran Bhatia
- , Alexander Baker
- & Carolyn Whitlock
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Circum-Arctic release of terrestrial carbon varies between regions and sources
This synthesis of carbon isotope data in circum-Arctic shelf sediments provides a holistic, receptor-based perspective of how carbon release and transport vary between Arctic soils, peat and permafrost deposits amongst the different Arctic regions.
- Jannik Martens
- , Birgit Wild
- & Örjan Gustafsson
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Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections
Many lakes on Earth are covered by seasonal ice, and as lake ice loss has been increasing, it is ever more important to quantify this. Here the authors present a fully coupled lake ice model projection as a part of the new CESM2 large ensemble modelling project and show that unprecedented lake ice loss is emerging globally as a result of anthropogenic-induced warming.
- Lei Huang
- , Axel Timmermann
- & Eui-Seok Chung
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Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle
Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle. A new study shows that the terrestrial water cycle in Brazil has been mostly drying or accelerating, aligned with changes in rainfall, water use, and forest cover.
- Vinícius B. P. Chagas
- , Pedro L. B. Chaffe
- & Günter Blöschl
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Article
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Large contribution of fossil-derived components to aqueous secondary organic aerosols in China
Isotope fingerprinting is used to track precursor sources and formation pathways of aqueous SOA, such as oxalic acid, finding that fossil fuel precursors contributions have largely been underestimated.
- Buqing Xu
- , Gan Zhang
- & Guoying Sheng
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Article
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Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey
New study shows that up to 50% of properties flooded after hurricane Harvey flooded because of climate change, with low-income and Latina/x/o neighborhoods experiencing higher climate change-attributed impacts.
- Kevin T. Smiley
- , Ilan Noy
- & Oliver E. J. Wing
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Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events
With an ice-free Arctic, strong El Niño frequency increases 1/3 + . Almost half the increase by 2100 links to Arctic ice loss, not other greenhouse forcing. The Arctic’s influence on ENSO may represent a novel driver of changing climate extremes globally.
- Jiping Liu
- , Mirong Song
- & Shang-Ping Xie
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Article
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Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink
The global net land sink is relatively well constrained. However, the responsible drivers and above/below-ground partitioning are highly uncertain. Model issues regarding turnover of individual plant and soil components are responsible.
- Michael O’Sullivan
- , Pierre Friedlingstein
- & Sönke Zaehle
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Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
Climate model simulations show that for 1970-2017 externally-forced sea surface temperature increases in the Gulf Stream explain up to 56% of the sea-ice decline in the Barents-Kara Sea during winter via poleward oceanic heat transport.
- Yoko Yamagami
- , Masahiro Watanabe
- & Jun Ono
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Matters Arising
| Open Access
Uncertainty in near-term temperature evolution must not obscure assessments of climate mitigation benefits
- Alexandrine Lanson
- , Peter Pfleiderer
- & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
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Article
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Central tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
Landfalling atmospheric rivers on the Antarctic Peninsula, which lead to strong surface melting that can cause ice shelf collapse, have been linked to localized deep convection in the central tropical Pacific northeast of Fiji.
- Kyle R. Clem
- , Deniz Bozkurt
- & John Turner
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Impact of interannual and multidecadal trends on methane-climate feedbacks and sensitivity
Record-breaking rates of increasing atmospheric methane concentrations in 2020 and 2021 are alarming, but puzzling, in view of declining methane emissions from fossil fuel in 2020. The authors show that interannual variation of both positive and negative feedbacks contribute positively to the rising methane concentration.
- Chin-Hsien Cheng
- & Simon A. T. Redfern
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No general stability conditions for marine ice-sheet grounding lines in the presence of feedbacks
Using theoretical, numerical and data analyses, this study finds that there are no general stability conditions for marine ice sheets if feedbacks caused by interactions of ice sheets with atmosphere, ocean and lithosphere are taken into account.
- Olga V. Sergienko
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Article
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Sea ice–air interactions amplify multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic region
Sea ice–air interactions greatly amplify multidecadal variability in Arctic air temperatures and sea ice cover, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through changes in surface fluxes.
- Jiechun Deng
- & Aiguo Dai
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Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century
The El Niño - Southern Oscillation can have global impacts, therefore assessing its future occurrence is needed. Here, the authors project that El Niño will grow at a faster rate, persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and have stronger and distinct remote impacts in the 21st Century
- Hosmay Lopez
- , Sang-Ki Lee
- & Sang-Wook Yeh
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Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions
This study presents evidence that a major feature of the northern hemisphere summertime circulation, the Eurasian subtropical westerly jet (ESWJ), weakened significantly in recent decades, and that this weakening was caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols.
- Buwen Dong
- , Rowan T. Sutton
- & Ben Harvey
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Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century
Climate change does not only increase mean temperatures, but also the magnitude of year-to-year temperature variability. Here, the authors use large model ensembles to show that these changes can be statistically distinguished from the baseline variability in most regions of the world during the 21st century.
- Dirk Olonscheck
- , Andrew P. Schurer
- & Gabriele C. Hegerl
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Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years
If the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones have changed over the last century, it is not well known, given the lack of reliable data before the mid-20th century. Here, the author uses a statistical-dynamical model to show an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic since the 19th century.
- Kerry Emanuel
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A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections
How the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) changes under climate change is not well understood. Here, the authors show that the strengthening of the PWC since 1979 is related to internal variability of the Pacific and use this as a constraint to show that it is likely to weaken in the next decades.
- Mingna Wu
- , Tianjun Zhou
- & Lixia Zhang
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Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance
Satellite observations reveal a significant positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Here, the authors show that it is exceptionally unlikely that this trend can be explained by internal variability; instead, anthropogenic forcing and feedbacks cause the trend.
- Shiv Priyam Raghuraman
- , David Paynter
- & V. Ramaswamy
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Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
How tropical cyclones have varied in intensity and frequency in the past is not well known as longer records are rare. Here, the authors show that changes in observing practices explain the recorded century scale increase in Atlantic major hurricane frequency, and recent increases are not part of a century-scale trend.
- Gabriel A. Vecchi
- , Christopher Landsea
- & Thomas Knutson
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Article
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Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets
Climate models project an intensification of extreme precipitation under climate change, but this effect is difficult to detect in the observational record. Here, the authors show that a physically interpretable anthropogenic impact on extreme precipitation is detectable in global observational data sets.
- Gavin D. Madakumbura
- , Chad W. Thackeray
- & Alex Hall
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Article
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Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change
Sea level rise amplifies coastal storm impacts, but the role of anthropogenic climate change is poorly resolved. Here the authors reassess Hurricane Sandy, using a dynamic flood model to show that anthropogenic sea level rise added a central estimate of $8 billion in damages.
- Benjamin H. Strauss
- , Philip M. Orton
- & Sergey Vinogradov
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Article
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Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
Most studies have examined the impacts of human-driven climate change on mean or extreme climate variables and have neglected to explore interrelated drought features. Here, the authors show that the presence of human activity has increased the number and maximum length and intensity of drought events across the globe.
- Felicia Chiang
- , Omid Mazdiyasni
- & Amir AghaKouchak
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Article
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Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon
Deforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded.
- Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho
- , Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho
- & Jan Börner
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Article
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Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation
This study introduces an empirical modeling approach allowing to separate climate and socio-economic drivers of damages by fluvial floods. It shows that climate signals are clearly detectable in Asia and Latin America.
- Inga J. Sauer
- , Ronja Reese
- & Katja Frieler
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Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast
Sea-level rise is an important part of climate change, but most sea-level budgets are global and cannot capture important regional changes. Here the authors estimate sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast, finding a faster rate of rise during the 20th century than any time in the past 2000 years.
- Jennifer S. Walker
- , Robert E. Kopp
- & Benjamin P. Horton
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Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather
Human emissions are thought to have caused an increase in wildfire risk, but how different emission sources contribute is less well known. Here, the authors show that the increase due to greenhouse gas emissions was balanced by aerosol-driven cooling, an effect that is projected to disappear during the 21st century.
- Danielle Touma
- , Samantha Stevenson
- & Sloan Coats
Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts