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Article
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Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming
This study shows that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole robustly weakens due to long-term warming. The findings provide compelling evidence for an anthropogenic influence on the Indian Ocean Dipole intensity.
- Soong-Ki Kim
- , Hyo-Jin Park
- & Jong-Seong Kug
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Article
| Open Access
The role of mountains in shaping the global meridional overturning circulation
This paper presents quantitative evaluation of the role of different continental mountains in shaping the global meridional overturning circulation. The Tibetan Plateau is likely to have been crucial in molding the global thermohaline circulation.
- Haijun Yang
- , Rui Jiang
- & Jiangping Huang
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Article
| Open Access
Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes
Earth system modeling is used to project future changes in North American wetlands. Climate change will reduce inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes, with substantial summer drying and shrinkage in cold regions.
- Donghui Xu
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming
The authors combine climate simulations with observations to estimate carbon budgets which are better constrained and find they are more than 10% larger than the mean value from CMIP6 models.
- Peter M. Cox
- , Mark S. Williamson
- & Rebecca M. Varney
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Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming
The tropical Pacific has exhibited a complex warming pattern since the 1950s. The authors here identify the critical role of the wind-driven ocean circulation in this warming pattern, and especially for the enhanced warming of the eastern Pacific.
- Shuo Fu
- , Shineng Hu
- & Yiqun Tian
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Article
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Mapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory
Due to fundamental anatomical and biochemical differences, C3 and C4 plant species tend to differ in their biogeography and response to climate change. Here, the authors use global observations and optimality theory to map patterns and temporal trends in C4 species distribution and the contribution of C4 plants to global photosynthesis.
- Xiangzhong Luo
- , Haoran Zhou
- & Christopher J. Still
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Article
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Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
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Article
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Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability
The authors present two independent reconstructions and a model simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity over the last millennium and show that it is mainly driven by internal climate variability instead of external forcings.
- Wenchang Yang
- , Elizabeth Wallace
- & Tyler S. Winkler
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Acceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses
The authors used a state-of-the-science ensemble ocean reconstruction to analyze ocean heat content evolution over the last 62 years, focusing on the analysis of warming acceleration and the main sources of its uncertainty.
- Andrea Storto
- & Chunxue Yang
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Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
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Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
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Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
Here, the solar-cycle forcing and response are used to constrain climate sensitivity. Solar forcing does not involve aerosols and thus provides an independent and tighter constraint, reducing current uncertainty range by 2/3.
- King-Fai Li
- & Ka-Kit Tung
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Article
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Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability.
- Brice Noël
- , J. Melchior van Wessem
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
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Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
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Article
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Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends
Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- , Julien Cattiaux
- & Pascal Yiou
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Dynamic redox and nutrient cycling response to climate forcing in the Mesoproterozoic ocean
Regional ocean redox variability and associated nutrient cycling in the Mesoproterozoic can be explained by climate forcing at individual locations, rather than specific events or step-changes in global oceanic redox conditions.
- Yafang Song
- , Fred T. Bowyer
- & Simon W. Poulton
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Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
- Pavan Harika Raavi
- , Jung-Eun Chu
- & Kevin J. E. Walsh
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Warming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes
This paper shows that the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions is constant due to complex interactions of physical and biogeochemical processes, and not because heat and carbon are mixed into the ocean by similar processes.
- Nathan P. Gillett
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Global organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing
The effective hygroscopicity of organic matter and inorganic ions in atmospheric aerosols can be efficiently and accurately parameterized by global average values to constrain a critically important aspect in climate and Earth system models
- Mira L. Pöhlker
- , Christopher Pöhlker
- & Ulrich Pöschl
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East Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are found to be synchronized at the subseasonal timescale via a Rossby wave triggered by the Indian summer monsoon heating. The impact on East Asian precipitation varies with the subtropical jet structure.
- Shixue Li
- , Tomonori Sato
- & Wenkai Guo
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Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models
The degree of warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted in the low equilibrium climate sensitivity models can be underestimated due to their deficiencies in depicting seasonal low-cloud variations over the extra-tropics.
- Xianan Jiang
- , Hui Su
- & Gregory Elsaesser
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North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
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Accounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature
Efforts to retain or increase land carbon pools are hampered by the risk of loss to natural or human disturbances. The proposed approach to tonne-year accounting could effectively quantify and track the climate value of both temporary and permanent carbon storage.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Kirsten Zickfeld
- & Amy Luers
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Perspective
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Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
Climate model ensemble boosting can yield physically coherent storylines for record-shattering climate extremes such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Combining information from storyline approaches with process understanding can inform planning for future extremes of unprecedented intensity.
- E. M. Fischer
- , U. Beyerle
- & R. Knutti
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Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling induces non-linear warming via the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which exerts an accelerating effect on global warming and on extremely high temperatures.
- Liang Qiao
- , Zhiyan Zuo
- & Kaiwen Zhang
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Holocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations
Southern Oman speleothem oxygen isotope and multi-proxy data reveal diverse changes in the Afro-Indian summer monsoon circulations and local hydroclimate conditions during the Holocene, confirming climate model simulations.
- Ye Tian
- , Dominik Fleitmann
- & Hai Cheng
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Decadal changes in Atlantic overturning due to the excessive 1990s Labrador Sea convection
Using high-resolution model experiments, the authors identify the rapid spreading of mid-depth density anomalies from the Labrador to the Irminger Sea as a prime mechanism in the generation of decadal changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.
- C. W. Böning
- , P. Wagner
- & A. Biastoch
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Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation
Increased global land precipitation, due to the atmospheric feedbacks of large-scale bioenergy cultivation, may partially compensate the water consumption by such rainfed bioenergy crops at the global scale.
- Zhao Li
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Wei Li
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QBO deepens MJO convection
This paper shows that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within Madden-Julian oscillation envelopes is facilitated by mean state changes in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere during easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation winters.
- Daeho Jin
- , Daehyun Kim
- & Lazaros Oreopoulos
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Article
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Global environmental implications of atmospheric methane removal through chlorine-mediated chemistry-climate interactions
Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has comparable anthropogenic and natural sources, complicating emission control. Increasing reactive chlorine has been proposed for mitigation. This study assesses the global environmental impacts of such proposal.
- Qinyi Li
- , Daphne Meidan
- & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
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Unraveling the optical shape of snow
Micrometre scale simulation of the trajectory of sunlight as it reaches the snowpack shows what snow looks like from the photon’s perspective, providing a more universal representation of snow in optical models.
- Alvaro Robledano
- , Ghislain Picard
- & Quentin Libois
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Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation
This study shows that climate change will alter the sea surface temperature - precipitation relationships and our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100.
- Phong V. V. Le
- , James T. Randerson
- & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
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Adaptive bias correction for improved subseasonal forecasting
This paper proposes a low-cost machine learning correction for physics-based dynamical models that improves subseasonal forecasting of temperature and precipitation two to six weeks ahead.
- Soukayna Mouatadid
- , Paulo Orenstein
- & Lester Mackey
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Matters Arising
| Open Access
Response to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
- Judah Cohen
- , Laurie Agel
- & Ian White
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Article
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Role of the Maritime Continent in the remote influence of Atlantic Niño on the Pacific
Equatorial Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies force an eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave, enabling the Atlantic to impact the Pacific, with the interaction of the Kelvin wave and the Maritime Continent critical in this teleconnection.
- Siying Liu
- , Ping Chang
- & Ingo Richter
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Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
A dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.
- Yeon-Hee Kim
- , Seung-Ki Min
- & Elizaveta Malinina
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Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea
Seasonal stratification on the northwest European Shelf is found to be triggered by rainfall from passing storms. Further links are made between the onset of stratification to large-scale pressure changes in the North Atlantic.
- J. E. Jardine
- , M. Palmer
- & J. Wihsgott
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What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean’s twilight zone
Combining geological evidence and modelling, Crichton and others find life in the ocean Twilight Zone (200 m to 1000 m depth) is vulnerable to warming due to lower food supply. High emissions may lead to severe depletion and extinction in this habitat
- Katherine A. Crichton
- , Jamie D. Wilson
- & Paul N. Pearson
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Dynamic and thermodynamic influences on precipitation in Northeast Mexico on orbital to millennial timescales
A stalagmite hydroclimate record (Tamaulipas, Mexico) from 62.5 to 5.1 ka showed (1) Atlantic and Pacific temperatures impacted precipitation changes and (2) there were dry conditions during Heinrich Stadials, possibly because moisture shifted south.
- Kevin T. Wright
- , Kathleen R. Johnson
- & Laura Beramendi-Orosco
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Global patterns and edaphic-climatic controls of soil carbon decomposition kinetics predicted from incubation experiments
The predictive power of earth system models may be improved by better representation of decomposition processes. Here, the authors use incubation data and machine learning to estimate soil organic matter decomposition kinetic parameters as a reference for global modelling.
- Daifeng Xiang
- , Gangsheng Wang
- & Wanyu Li
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Article
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Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation
In contrast to the North Atlantic, the projected overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas increases throughout most of the 21st century in global climate model simulations. The Nordic Seas could therefore be a stabilizing factor in the future AMOC.
- Marius Årthun
- , Helene Asbjørnsen
- & Kjetil Våge
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Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers
Extreme ice sheet melt events in northeast Greenland occur after intense water vapor transport into northwest Greenland by atmospheric rivers. Through the foehn effect, the air becomes warmer and drier as it descends the ice sheet slope.
- Kyle S. Mattingly
- , Jenny V. Turton
- & Thomas L. Mote
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Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint
An optimal salinity fingerprint is proposed to detect the long-term Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) response to anthropogenic forcing. A real-word application suggests a likely accelerated weakening of the AMOC in recent decades.
- Chenyu Zhu
- , Zhengyu Liu
- & Lixin Wu
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Recent decrease of the impact of tropical temperature on the carbon cycle linked to increased precipitation
The authors show a recent decoupling of the tropical temperature variations and the carbon cycle that is driven by wetter conditions in the tropics.
- Wenmin Zhang
- , Guy Schurgers
- & Martin Brandt
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Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
Most global sea level projections ignore the active role of ice-sheet-climate coupling. Including this effect, a new modeling system simulates irreversible Antarctic ice-sheet loss and accelerating sea level rise for global mean temperatures >1.8oC.
- Jun-Young Park
- , Fabian Schloesser
- & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
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Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates
The climate crisis will increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Harrison et al. show that while global waterlogging-induced yield losses increase from 3–11% historically to 10–20% by 2080, adapting sowing periods and adopting waterlogging-tolerant genotypes can negate such yield losses.
- Ke Liu
- , Matthew Tom Harrison
- & Meixue Zhou
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Article
| Open Access
Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980
This study finds that the abnormally high frequency of extreme El Niño and central Pacific El Niño events over the past four decades can be attributed to the synchronized effects of greenhouse warming and internal variability.
- Ruyu Gan
- , Qi Liu
- & Xichen Li
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Article
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Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening
Impacts of Tibetan Plateau darkening remain unclear. Here authors show that darkening under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase South Asian monsoon precipitation and the “South Flood-North Drought” pattern over East Asia, while lead to local glacier loss.
- Shuchang Tang
- , Anouk Vlug
- & Tandong Yao
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Article
| Open Access
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
Winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Here the authors examine the competing factors controlling sea ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas, and develop a simple model that explains the rise and subsequent fall of ice production under climate change.
- S. B. Cornish
- , H. L. Johnson
- & A. E. Richards
Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios