Article
|
Open Access
Featured
-
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessField experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming
- Chao Yue
- , Jinshi Jian
- & Ben Bond-Lamberty
-
Article
| Open AccessCCl4 emissions in eastern China during 2021–2022 and exploration of potential new sources
The Montreal Protocol globally phased out ozone-layer depleting CCl4 by 2010. However, atmospheric measurements show eastern China emitted ~7.6 gigagrams/year in 2021–2022. Further, industrial sources of ongoing CCL4 emissions are identified.
- Bowei Li
- , Jiahuan Huang
- & Xuekun Fang
-
Article
| Open AccessModern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years
Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years.
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- , Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- & Valdir Felipe Novello
-
Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
-
Article
| Open AccessHistorical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming
The tropical Pacific has exhibited a complex warming pattern since the 1950s. The authors here identify the critical role of the wind-driven ocean circulation in this warming pattern, and especially for the enhanced warming of the eastern Pacific.
- Shuo Fu
- , Shineng Hu
- & Yiqun Tian
-
Article
| Open AccessTransition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
It is unclear how indirect CO2 effect – via associated climate change – on vegetation carbon uptake changes globally. Here, the authors show that such initial positive effect has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.
- Zefeng Chen
- , Weiguang Wang
- & Alessandro Cescatti
-
Article
| Open AccessReal-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change
Over 13 years, coastal Louisiana’s wetlands have been endangered by a sea-level rise rate comparable to what is expected later this century. While the rate may not persist over the next few decades, this natural experiment indicates a 75% drowning of these wetlands by 2070 under current carbon emissions.
- Guandong Li
- , Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
- & Sönke Dangendorf
-
Article
| Open AccessSediment discharge from Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers is linked with surface melt
As Greenland’s huge calving glaciers melt, they pump sediment deep into biologically rich fjords. In this study, the quantity and path of this sediment is tracked and an empirical relationship is found between sediment and the amount of surface melt on the glacier.
- Camilla S. Andresen
- , Nanna B. Karlsson
- & Ida E. Gundel
-
Article
| Open AccessPolar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period
Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Here, the authors follow 20 different polar bears on land over 3 years and measure daily energy expenditure finding that despite behavioural and diet plasticity the bears are at risk of starvation.
- Anthony M. Pagano
- , Karyn D. Rode
- & Charles T. Robbins
-
Article
| Open AccessMapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory
Due to fundamental anatomical and biochemical differences, C3 and C4 plant species tend to differ in their biogeography and response to climate change. Here, the authors use global observations and optimality theory to map patterns and temporal trends in C4 species distribution and the contribution of C4 plants to global photosynthesis.
- Xiangzhong Luo
- , Haoran Zhou
- & Christopher J. Still
-
Article
| Open AccessDansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the penultimate and last glacial period recorded in stalagmites from Türkiye
Abrupt millennial-scale climate variability, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, characterized the last glacial. Stalagmite data from northern Türkiye show D-O events for the penultimate glacial period, though they were less frequent.
- F. Held
- , H. Cheng
- & D. Fleitmann
-
Article
| Open AccessContribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
West Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
- Diana Erazo
- , Luke Grant
- & Simon Dellicour
-
Article
| Open AccessProcess-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
-
Comment
| Open AccessOpening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts
Combining ocean predictions with physiological understanding yields the ability to forecast habitat multiple years into the future for a wide variety of marine organisms. However, several challenges remain before we see the regular production and use of marine habitat forecasts.
- Mark R. Payne
-
Article
| Open AccessRising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin
Increasing rainfall intensity produces opposite hydrological effects across a large river basin in South China (drying in the uplands vs. wetting in the lowlands) due to spatially contrasting interactions between rainfall intensification and topography.
- Yiping Wu
- , Xiaowei Yin
- & Decheng Zhou
-
Article
| Open AccessLast millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability
The authors present two independent reconstructions and a model simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity over the last millennium and show that it is mainly driven by internal climate variability instead of external forcings.
- Wenchang Yang
- , Elizabeth Wallace
- & Tyler S. Winkler
-
Perspective
| Open AccessThe principles of natural climate solutions
Natural climate solutions can mitigate climate change but misunderstandings about what constitutes a natural climate solution generate unnecessary confusion and controversy. This Perspective distills five foundational principles of natural climate solutions and fifteen operational principles for practical implementation.
- Peter Woods Ellis
- , Aaron Marr Page
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
-
Article
| Open AccessGreenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy
This study demonstrates the energy use of US pump irrigation produced 12.6 million tonnes CO2e in 2018, with spatial variability modulated by water source and fuel choice. These county-level estimates can inform strategic irrigation expansion and emissions reduction efforts.
- Avery W. Driscoll
- , Richard T. Conant
- & Nathaniel D. Mueller
-
Article
| Open AccessPersistent warm-eddy transport to Antarctic ice shelves driven by enhanced summer westerlies
The offshore heat supplied to the Antarctic continental shelves by warm eddies has a potential impact on the melting of ice shelves. Here, how warm eddies form and intrude onto the continental shelf and play an important role in ice shelf melting is shown.
- Libao Gao
- , Xiaojun Yuan
- & Guy D. Williams
-
Article
| Open AccessDrought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions
Drought is shown to enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil inorganic carbon dissolution but to weaken that of soil organic carbon decomposition, indicating that drought may exacerbate dryland soil carbon loss from inorganic carbon under warming.
- Jinquan Li
- , Junmin Pei
- & Ming Nie
-
Article
| Open AccessAcceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses
The authors used a state-of-the-science ensemble ocean reconstruction to analyze ocean heat content evolution over the last 62 years, focusing on the analysis of warming acceleration and the main sources of its uncertainty.
- Andrea Storto
- & Chunxue Yang
-
Article
| Open AccessSignificantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population
The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
- Ralph Trancoso
- , Jozef Syktus
- & Robin Chadwick
-
Article
| Open AccessKnowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems
Existing models to estimate agroecosystem C cycle have large uncertainties. Here, the authors propose a knowledge-guided machine learning framework that improves C cycle quantification in agroecosystems by integrating process-based and machine learning models, and multi-source high-resolution data.
- Licheng Liu
- , Wang Zhou
- & Zhenong Jin
-
Perspective
| Open AccessRemotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales
Climate change could drive critical parts of the Earth system past tipping points, causing large-scale, abrupt and/or irreversible changes that harm societies. Here, the authors suggest that satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in helping manage these profound risks, by providing improved early warning of tipping points across scales.
- Timothy M. Lenton
- , Jesse F. Abrams
- & Niklas Boers
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
-
Article
| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
-
Article
| Open AccessHigher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios.
- Hanbeen Kim
- & Gabriele Villarini
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
-
Article
| Open AccessRobust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Martin D. Hurst
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessSea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- M. E. Dickson
- , H. Matsumoto
- & A. P. Young
-
Article
| Open AccessThe potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts
Zuiderveen and colleagues find that emerging bio-based products have on average 45% lower greenhouse gas life cycle emissions compared to their fossil counterparts, yet, there is a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching netzero emissions.
- Emma A. R. Zuiderveen
- , Koen J. J. Kuipers
- & Mark A. J. Huijbregts
-
Article
| Open AccessSolar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
Here, the solar-cycle forcing and response are used to constrain climate sensitivity. Solar forcing does not involve aerosols and thus provides an independent and tighter constraint, reducing current uncertainty range by 2/3.
- King-Fai Li
- & Ka-Kit Tung
-
Article
| Open AccessIntegrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections
Using historical data across the U.S., the authors find that population declines are associated with flood exposure. Projecting this relationship to 2053, the authors find that flood risk may result in 7% lower growth than otherwise expected.
- Evelyn G. Shu
- , Jeremy R. Porter
- & Edward Kearns
-
Article
| Open AccessUncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Ben-Yami et al. present methods to quantify uncertainties and address biases in indicators for detecting stability changes in key Earth system components. Data gap filling introduces biases, but the stability decline in the North Atlantic remains significant.
- Maya Ben-Yami
- , Vanessa Skiba
- & Niklas Boers
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity
By building transcontinental power pools, Yang and colleagues find global electricity demand can be 100% met by renewables, at an affordable cost.
- Haozhe Yang
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Sangwon Suh
-
Article
| Open AccessHigher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability.
- Brice Noël
- , J. Melchior van Wessem
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
-
Article
| Open AccessDemographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States
Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted.
- Kelsea Best
- , Qian He
- & Tom Logan
-
Article
| Open AccessWarming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands
Growing vapor pressure deficit inhibits vegetation growth. Here, Chen et al. combine satellite and eddy covariance data with field experiments showing that plant growth in northern peatlands is not constrained by water even in the presence of a warming-induced water pressure deficit.
- Ning Chen
- , Yifei Zhang
- & Xianwei Wang
-
Article
| Open AccessA physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Research examining the ability to survive or safely live under extreme heat often oversimplifies human exposure and responses. Here, the authors apply a physiology-based approach for young and older adults to improve survivability estimates and introduce liveability in current and future climates.
- Jennifer Vanos
- , Gisel Guzman-Echavarria
- & Ollie Jay
-
Article
| Open AccessOcean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
This paper shows the inherent coupling of winter cold extremes over land and marine heatwaves in the past decade. These events are projected to recur with increased frequency, especially when ocean fronts undergo anomalous decadal warming.
- Mi-Kyung Sung
- , Soon-Il An
- & Minhee Chang
-
Article
| Open AccessThe social costs of tropical cyclones
The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures.
- Hazem Krichene
- , Thomas Vogt
- & Christian Otto
-
Article
| Open AccessMiddle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
In recent decades, land warming over the Middle East and a northward shift of the low-level jet in the atmosphere have led to unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall increase over Pakistan and northwestern India, areas that used to be arid to semi-arid.
- Baosheng Li
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
-
Article
| Open AccessRisk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions
While accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
- Yue Wang
- , Imke J. M. de Boer
- & Corina E. van Middelaar
-
Article
| Open AccessPotential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes
The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- , Annika Seppälä
- & Craig J. Rodger
-
Article
| Open AccessClimate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability
No inherently stable peat soil carbon. Researchers found that all molecular components of peatland soil organic carbon responded to warming and eCO2, including the components presumed to be slow cycling and stable.
- Nicholas O. E. Ofiti
- , Michael W. I. Schmidt
- & Avni Malhotra
-
Article
| Open AccessAerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
-
Article
| Open AccessReversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades
The authors find a significant increase in daily maximum temperature warming rates, while daily minimum temperatures remain stable over land in recent decades. This may be due to reduced cloud cover, leading to increased incoming solar radiation.
- Ziqian Zhong
- , Bin He
- & Xiang Zhao
-
Article
| Open AccessThe asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets
Here the authors explore the connectedness of the carbon, energy, and metals markets. They find asymmetric effects of climate risk with higher physical risk impacts on upward risk spillovers, and greater transition risk effects on the downside risk of kurtosis connectedness.
- Yuqin Zhou
- , Shan Wu
- & Lavinia Rognone