Featured
-
-
Article
| Open AccessSignificantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population
The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
- Ralph Trancoso
- , Jozef Syktus
- & Robin Chadwick
-
Article
| Open AccessA global analysis of how human infrastructure squeezes sandy coasts
In a first global analysis, researchers find that sandy shores are severely squeezed between human infrastructure and the rising sea, as on average, the first road or building is currently situated at just 390 meters distance from the shoreline.
- Eva M. Lansu
- , Valérie C. Reijers
- & Tjisse van der Heide
-
Article
| Open AccessKnowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems
Existing models to estimate agroecosystem C cycle have large uncertainties. Here, the authors propose a knowledge-guided machine learning framework that improves C cycle quantification in agroecosystems by integrating process-based and machine learning models, and multi-source high-resolution data.
- Licheng Liu
- , Wang Zhou
- & Zhenong Jin
-
Perspective
| Open AccessRemotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales
Climate change could drive critical parts of the Earth system past tipping points, causing large-scale, abrupt and/or irreversible changes that harm societies. Here, the authors suggest that satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in helping manage these profound risks, by providing improved early warning of tipping points across scales.
- Timothy M. Lenton
- , Jesse F. Abrams
- & Niklas Boers
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
-
Article
| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
-
Article
| Open AccessSevere 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas
Biodiversity in established or proposed Antarctic Marine Protected Areas is threatened by climate change. The authors show that projected ocean acidification is severe in Antarctic coastal waters due to strong vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon.
- Cara Nissen
- , Nicole S. Lovenduski
- & Judith Hauck
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves
Ocean waves caused by tropical cyclones show a significant global increase of energy and area over the last 44 years, leading to critical emerging wave hazard.
- Jian Shi
- , Xiangbo Feng
- & Jinhai Zheng
-
Article
| Open AccessHigher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios.
- Hanbeen Kim
- & Gabriele Villarini
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
-
Article
| Open AccessRobust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
-
Article
| Open AccessThe impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China
Heat extremes occur more frequently with global warming. Here the authors show that short-term heat extremes play a critical role in shaping long-term dynamics of lake surface temperature, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends in Chinese lakes.
- Weijia Wang
- , Kun Shi
- & R. Iestyn Woolway
-
Article
| Open AccessProjected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models
Large uncertainties remain in Earth system models in predicting soil carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, the authors constrained projected soil carbon changes in ESMs using observation-derived data, and found that global soil will become a carbon source under future warming.
- Shuai Ren
- , Tao Wang
- & Shilong Piao
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Martin D. Hurst
-
Matters Arising
| Open AccessSea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- M. E. Dickson
- , H. Matsumoto
- & A. P. Young
-
Article
| Open AccessThe potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts
Zuiderveen and colleagues find that emerging bio-based products have on average 45% lower greenhouse gas life cycle emissions compared to their fossil counterparts, yet, there is a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching netzero emissions.
- Emma A. R. Zuiderveen
- , Koen J. J. Kuipers
- & Mark A. J. Huijbregts
-
Article
| Open AccessSolar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response
Here, the solar-cycle forcing and response are used to constrain climate sensitivity. Solar forcing does not involve aerosols and thus provides an independent and tighter constraint, reducing current uncertainty range by 2/3.
- King-Fai Li
- & Ka-Kit Tung
-
Article
| Open AccessShoreface erosion counters blue carbon accumulation in transgressive barrier-island systems
Landward barrier migration facilitates erosion of shoreface-exposed marsh and lagoon carbon stocks at rates outpacing backbarrier carbon accumulation, thus demonstrating the ephemeral nature of blue carbon storage along transgressive coasts.
- Mary Bryan Barksdale
- , Christopher J. Hein
- & Matthew L. Kirwan
-
Article
| Open AccessUncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Ben-Yami et al. present methods to quantify uncertainties and address biases in indicators for detecting stability changes in key Earth system components. Data gap filling introduces biases, but the stability decline in the North Atlantic remains significant.
- Maya Ben-Yami
- , Vanessa Skiba
- & Niklas Boers
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity
By building transcontinental power pools, Yang and colleagues find global electricity demand can be 100% met by renewables, at an affordable cost.
- Haozhe Yang
- , Ranjit Deshmukh
- & Sangwon Suh
-
Article
| Open AccessDecadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
A decadal-scale oscillatory pattern is identified that is a dominant mode of Antarctic sea ice variability. This mode is primarily driven by tropical-polar connections, offering insights into the multi-year predictability of Antarctic sea ice.
- Yusen Liu
- , Cheng Sun
- & Xichen Li
-
Article
| Open AccessParticle-associated denitrification is the primary source of N2O in oxic coastal waters
Incomplete denitrification associated with the micro-niche of marine particles, instead of nitrification as previously assumed, is a major source of N2O in the turbid coastal waters, even though the water is well-oxygenated.
- Xianhui S. Wan
- , Hua-Xia Sheng
- & Shuh-Ji Kao
-
Article
| Open AccessCalifornia’s zero-emission vehicle adoption brings air quality benefits yet equity gaps persist
Zero-emission vehicle adoption brings near-roadway air quality benefits to all communities in California, yet equity gaps persist in disadvantaged communities, calling for targeted policies.
- Qiao Yu
- , Brian Yueshuai He
- & Yifang Zhu
-
Article
| Open AccessThe emergence of modern zoogeographic regions in Asia examined through climate–dental trait association patterns
The timing of the emergence of the modern Asian terrestrial biota is unclear. Here, the authors apply redescription mining to herbivore dental trait data, finding that different aspects of modern zoogeographic patterns originated in the Pliocene and Middle and Late Miocene.
- Liping Liu
- , Esther Galbrun
- & Indrė Žliobaitė
-
Article
| Open AccessCarbonate chemistry and carbon sequestration driven by inorganic carbon outwelling from mangroves and saltmarshes
Global observations from mangroves and saltmarshes unravel hidden carbon pathways. Inorganic carbon outwelling is revealed to dominate carbon budgets, impact coastal pH, and enhance the climate mitigation potential of blue carbon ecosystems.
- Gloria M. S. Reithmaier
- , Alex Cabral
- & Isaac R. Santos
-
Article
| Open AccessHigher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution
High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability.
- Brice Noël
- , J. Melchior van Wessem
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
-
Article
| Open AccessDemographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States
Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted.
- Kelsea Best
- , Qian He
- & Tom Logan
-
Article
| Open AccessWarming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands
Growing vapor pressure deficit inhibits vegetation growth. Here, Chen et al. combine satellite and eddy covariance data with field experiments showing that plant growth in northern peatlands is not constrained by water even in the presence of a warming-induced water pressure deficit.
- Ning Chen
- , Yifei Zhang
- & Xianwei Wang
-
Article
| Open AccessA physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Research examining the ability to survive or safely live under extreme heat often oversimplifies human exposure and responses. Here, the authors apply a physiology-based approach for young and older adults to improve survivability estimates and introduce liveability in current and future climates.
- Jennifer Vanos
- , Gisel Guzman-Echavarria
- & Ollie Jay
-
Article
| Open AccessOcean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula
Warm ocean waters and favourable bathymetry caused Cadman Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula to increase speed by 94% from 2018 to 2019. This led to increased ice discharge, glacier retreat of 8 kilometres, and glacier thinning by 20 meters per year.
- Benjamin J. Wallis
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Carlos Moffat
-
Article
| Open AccessCompensating transport trends in the Drake Passage frontal regions yield no acceleration in net transport
Time series of high spatial resolution ocean temperature, salinity and velocity across Drake Passage show that compensating trends across the frontal regions yield no acceleration in net transport over the last 15 years despite increased wind stress.
- Manuel O. Gutierrez-Villanueva
- , Teresa K. Chereskin
- & Janet Sprintall
-
Article
| Open AccessOcean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
This paper shows the inherent coupling of winter cold extremes over land and marine heatwaves in the past decade. These events are projected to recur with increased frequency, especially when ocean fronts undergo anomalous decadal warming.
- Mi-Kyung Sung
- , Soon-Il An
- & Minhee Chang
-
Article
| Open AccessThe social costs of tropical cyclones
The estimates of the societal costs of carbon currently used for policy evaluations may be too low due to an insufficient representation of tropical cyclone damage. Accounting for them substantially increases the estimated benefits of climate change mitigation measures.
- Hazem Krichene
- , Thomas Vogt
- & Christian Otto
-
Article
| Open AccessMiddle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
In recent decades, land warming over the Middle East and a northward shift of the low-level jet in the atmosphere have led to unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall increase over Pakistan and northwestern India, areas that used to be arid to semi-arid.
- Baosheng Li
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
-
Article
| Open AccessRisk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions
While accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
- Yue Wang
- , Imke J. M. de Boer
- & Corina E. van Middelaar
-
Article
| Open AccessPotential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes
The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- , Annika Seppälä
- & Craig J. Rodger
-
Article
| Open AccessWind-driven device for cooling permafrost
This work demonstrates a wind-powered device for cooling permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Composed of a windmill, mechanical clutch, and a heat exchanger with a phase change material, pilot experiments show soil temperature reduction with superior efficiency compared to traditional thermosyphons.
- Yinghong Qin
- , Tianyu Wang
- & Weixin Yuan
-
Article
| Open AccessClimate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability
No inherently stable peat soil carbon. Researchers found that all molecular components of peatland soil organic carbon responded to warming and eCO2, including the components presumed to be slow cycling and stable.
- Nicholas O. E. Ofiti
- , Michael W. I. Schmidt
- & Avni Malhotra
-
Article
| Open AccessEconomic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities
Urban heat islands have the greatest acute impacts on human mortality risk during extreme heat. However, protracted cold seasons result in greater annually integrated protective effects in most European cities under the current climate.
- Wan Ting Katty Huang
- , Pierre Masselot
- & Gabriele Manoli
-
Article
| Open AccessTracking lake drainage events and drained lake basin vegetation dynamics across the Arctic
The Arctic is dotted with lakes, including thermokarst lakes highly threatened by climate change. Here, the authors investigate 35 years of lake drainage events and related vegetation trends across the Arctic, finding differences between thermokarst and non-thermokarst lake drainage events.
- Yating Chen
- , Xiao Cheng
- & Chengxin Wang
-
Article
| Open AccessEnhanced subglacial discharge from Antarctica during meltwater pulse 1A
This study presents seawater uranium isotope records based on deep-sea corals from the Drake Passage to track subglacial discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, demonstrating a causal link between enhanced subglacial discharge, retreat of the ice sheet, and the rapid rise in sea levels.
- Tao Li
- , Laura F. Robinson
- & James W. B. Rae
-
Article
| Open AccessAerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
-
Article
| Open AccessReconciling Southern Ocean fronts equatorward migration with minor Antarctic ice volume change during Miocene cooling
Hou et al. propose, based on dinocysts, clumped isotopes and ice sheet modelling, that during Miocene cooling, the Antarctic ice sheet progressively lowered in height while expanding seawards, to maintain a relatively stable volume.
- Suning Hou
- , Lennert B. Stap
- & Peter K. Bijl
-
Article
| Open AccessReversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades
The authors find a significant increase in daily maximum temperature warming rates, while daily minimum temperatures remain stable over land in recent decades. This may be due to reduced cloud cover, leading to increased incoming solar radiation.
- Ziqian Zhong
- , Bin He
- & Xiang Zhao
-
Article
| Open AccessRapid disintegration and weakening of ice shelves in North Greenland
North Greenland ice shelves have lost more than a third of their masses, thinning dramatically from below due to increased ocean temperatures. In response, grounding lines have retreated and the amount of ice discharged into the ocean has increased.
- R. Millan
- , E. Jager
- & A. Bjørk
-
Article
| Open AccessDecarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030
Electric vehicle sales goals alone will not achieve light duty vehicle emissions targets. Other actions including decarbonizing the electric grid, mode shifting, vehicle downsizing, reducing travel demand, and accelerating fleet turnover, are needed.
- Maxwell Woody
- , Gregory A. Keoleian
- & Parth Vaishnav
-
Article
| Open AccessOrigin of outer tropical cyclone rainbands
Convectively active, hazardous rainbands within tropical cyclones are shown to originate primarily from outside the inner core of the cyclone. This outer-origin dominance is partly attributed to squall-line processes and deserves future attention.
- Cheng-Ku Yu
- , Che-Yu Lin
- & Chi-Hang Pun
-
Article
| Open AccessAtlantic-origin water extension into the Pacific Arctic induced an anomalous biogeochemical event
The authors show that the appearance of anomalously low oxygen and acidified water on the Chukchi Plateau, a high-seas fishable area of the western Arctic Ocean, is associated with a change in basin-scale ocean circulation related to the recent sea ice loss.
- Shigeto Nishino
- , Jinyoung Jung
- & Sung-Ho Kang
-
Article
| Open AccessIncreasing ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wavefield since the late 20th century
Ocean waves induce geographically extensive seafloor forces that excite a continuous and globally detectable seismic wavefield. This study infers global near-coastal average wave energy intensification at a rate of 0.27% per year since the late 1980’s, and 0.35% per year since January 2000.
- Richard C. Aster
- , Adam T. Ringler
- & Thomas A. Lee