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| Open AccessNonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change
Here the authors find economic damage from El Niño far greater than benefits from La Niña on the global economy, leading to an increased economic loss as ENSO variability intensifies under greenhouse warming.
- Yi Liu
- , Wenju Cai
- & Ying Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessAir quality related equity implications of U.S. decarbonization policy
U.S. federal climate policies can reduce air pollutant emissions and associated health impacts from fine particulate matter. However, near-term CO2 reductions alone are insufficient to address racial/ethnic disparities in pollution exposure.
- Paul Picciano
- , Minghao Qiu
- & Noelle E. Selin
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Article
| Open AccessDrought as a possible contributor to the Visigothic Kingdom crisis and Islamic expansion in the Iberian Peninsula
Here, the authors compile pollen records from across Iberia and Morocco, comparing them with other paleohydrological and archaeological data, as well as historical sources. Using these data, they suggest that a series of strong droughts could have contributed to the decline of the Visigothic Kingdom and subsequent Islamic expansion.
- Jon Camuera
- , Francisco J. Jiménez-Espejo
- & Manuel Castro-Priego
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Article
| Open AccessPropagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures
The study reveals distinct extreme rainfall propagation modes driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Indo-Pacific region. These are influenced by Pacific sea surface temperatures and offer the potential for early warnings.
- Felix M. Strnad
- , Jakob Schlör
- & Bedartha Goswami
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Article
| Open AccessDeciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution
Distinguishing local hydrological, cave internal, and regional monsoon signals in speleothem records resolves disagreements among proxy reconstructions and illuminates the Holocene evolution of summer and winter monsoon in Southeast Asia.
- Annabel Wolf
- , Vasile Ersek
- & Anh Duc Trinh
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Comment
| Open AccessDrainage network response to Arctic warming
Rapid Arctic warming may increase erosion and stream channel formation, which alters the flux of sediments, carbon, and nutrients in these sensitive ecosystems. Yet, understanding landscape change is hampered by a lack of predictive tools applicable to permafrost settings.
- Joel C. Rowland
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Article
| Open AccessHigh Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground
Accelerating global warming is driving profound Arctic environmental change. The authors show that the structure and evolution of new stream networks are influenced by the evolving character of geometric ground patterns related to the response of permafrost to recent climate change.
- Shawn M. Chartrand
- , A. Mark Jellinek
- & Shannon Hibbard
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Article
| Open AccessMuted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models
The degree of warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted in the low equilibrium climate sensitivity models can be underestimated due to their deficiencies in depicting seasonal low-cloud variations over the extra-tropics.
- Xianan Jiang
- , Hui Su
- & Gregory Elsaesser
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Article
| Open AccessNorth African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
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Article
| Open AccessAccounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature
Efforts to retain or increase land carbon pools are hampered by the risk of loss to natural or human disturbances. The proposed approach to tonne-year accounting could effectively quantify and track the climate value of both temporary and permanent carbon storage.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Kirsten Zickfeld
- & Amy Luers
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Article
| Open AccessBlack carbon scavenging by low-level Arctic clouds
Black carbon in the Arctic has pronounced climatic effects, whilst residing in the atmosphere or after being deposited. Here long-term observations of black carbon inside Arctic clouds are used to study their seasonality, sources and links to other meteorological parameters.
- Paul Zieger
- , Dominic Heslin-Rees
- & Radovan Krejci
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Uncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations
- John Liggio
- & Shao-Meng Li
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessUncertainty and bias in Liggio et al. (2019) on CO2 emissions from oil sands operations
- Long Fu
- & Allan H. Legge
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Article
| Open AccessAntarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP
Antarctic ice core records provide insights into past environmental conditions. Here, an abrupt, synchronous increase in dust from ice cores in Antarctica is identified that suggests a sudden equatorward shift of westerly winds and coincides with a reduction in atmospheric CO2.
- Abhijith U. Venugopal
- , Nancy A. N. Bertler
- & Marcus J. Vandergoes
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable
This study examines the effect of four marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predators, revealing a wide-array of predator responses both among and within heatwaves. Predator responses were highly predictable, demonstrating capacity for early warning systems of heatwave impacts, similar to weather forecasts.
- Heather Welch
- , Matthew S. Savoca
- & Elliott L. Hazen
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Article
| Open AccessIberian Margin surface ocean cooling led freshening during Marine Isotope Stage 6 abrupt cooling events
Based on reconstructions of sea surface temperature and salinity, the authors find that surface freshening did not always trigger cooling during a millennial climate event on the Iberian Margin.
- Hongrui Zhang
- , Yongsong Huang
- & Heather Stoll
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Article
| Open AccessDecadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates
Top down atmospheric measurements reveal a large difference between observed methane emissions and those reported from bottom up estimates of natural gas leakage for California.
- Zhao-Cheng Zeng
- , Thomas Pongetti
- & Stanley P. Sander
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Article
| Open AccessReversal of trends in global fine particulate matter air pollution
Global fine particulate matter air pollution recently pivots from increase to decrease as inferred from satellite observations, driven by unprecedented exposure reduction in China and slowed exposure growth in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
- Chi Li
- , Aaron van Donkelaar
- & Randall V. Martin
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Article
| Open AccessHeterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands
The high-resolution global model of soil temperature and snow cover change in mountain ecosystems developed here shows that areas nearby glaciers are warming faster than other mountain regions, and these effects are particularly rapid in tropical mountains.
- Silvio Marta
- , Anaïs Zimmer
- & Gentile Francesco Ficetola
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Article
| Open AccessPacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean
The north Indian Ocean is a hotbed for Low Latitude Cyclones (LLCs; originating between 5°N and 11°N). This study finds a remarkable decline in the frequency of LLCs in recent decades modulated by the remote influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
- Shinto Roose
- , R. S. Ajayamohan
- & M. Rajeevan
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Article
| Open AccessThe challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China
Estimating health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of significance for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.9. Here, the authors show that population aging is expected to be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 in China by 2035, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare.
- Fangjin Xu
- , Qingxu Huang
- & Brett A. Bryan
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Article
| Open AccessWeakened AMOC related to cooling and atmospheric circulation shifts in the last interglacial Eastern Mediterranean
The warm last interglacial serves as a period to investigate climate change associated with a weakened AMOC. Here the authors report evidence of Eastern Mediterranean cooling and accompanied atmospheric circulation shifts affecting rainfall.
- Elan J. Levy
- , Hubert B. Vonhof
- & Gerald H. Haug
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Article
| Open AccessEffects of paleogeographic changes and CO2 variability on northern mid-latitudinal temperature gradients in the Cretaceous
Simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model show that paleogeography-driven reduction in the intensity of surface ocean circulation explains much of the increase in the mid-latitudinal sea surface temperature gradient during the Cretaceous.
- Kaushal Gianchandani
- , Sagi Maor
- & Nathan Paldor
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Article
| Open AccessRapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
The risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
- Samuel Lüthi
- , Christopher Fairless
- & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
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Article
| Open AccessRecent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been occurring closer to land since 1980 due to climate change. This shift can degenerate the forecast skill and increase the danger that tropical cyclones pose to coastal regions.
- Yi Li
- , Youmin Tang
- & Qiang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessAdoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties increases agricultural production, consumption, and smallholder commercialization in West Africa
The adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties has the potential to build farmers’ climate resilience. Here, the authors show that adoption of climate-resilient groundnut varieties in West Africa benefits all households, with the biggest gains accruing to small-scale farmers.
- Martin Paul Jr Tabe-Ojong
- , Jourdain C. Lokossou
- & Hippolyte D. Affognon
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Article
| Open AccessAdjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Emerging limitations on climate and low-carbon technology would require adjusting our 15.C climate change mitigation pathways. However, this could increase average annual emissions reductions to around 3GtCO2/year using a broad portfolio of mitigation measures.
- Ajay Gambhir
- , Shivika Mittal
- & Jason A. Lowe
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Perspective
| Open AccessStorylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
Climate model ensemble boosting can yield physically coherent storylines for record-shattering climate extremes such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Combining information from storyline approaches with process understanding can inform planning for future extremes of unprecedented intensity.
- E. M. Fischer
- , U. Beyerle
- & R. Knutti
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Article
| Open AccessEmergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
- Liam Lachs
- , Simon D. Donner
- & James R. Guest
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Article
| Open AccessAtlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast
AMOC-induced heat advection controls ocean temperature in the subtropical North Atlantic, drives year-to-year changes of basin-wide and coastal sea level, and accounts for 30-50% of flood days along the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2015-2020.
- Denis L. Volkov
- , Kate Zhang
- & Dimitris Menemenlis
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Article
| Open AccessEffects of drought and recovery on soil volatile organic compound fluxes in an experimental rainforest
Pugliese et al., show that severe drought and rewetting have a major impact on the capacity of rainforest soil to consume and emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs), affecting the atmospheric VOC budget and thereby atmospheric chemistry and climate.
- Giovanni Pugliese
- , Johannes Ingrisch
- & Jonathan Williams
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Article
| Open AccessSphagnum increases soil’s sequestration capacity of mineral-associated organic carbon via activating metal oxides
By employing large-scale comparisons across major terrestrial ecosystems and soil survey along Sphagnum gradients in distinct wetlands, Sphagnum is shown to act as an efficient rust engineer boosting the rusty carbon sink in wetlands
- Yunpeng Zhao
- , Chengzhu Liu
- & Xiaojuan Feng
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Article
| Open AccessExperimental impacts of grazing on grassland biodiversity and function are explained by aridity
Experimental evidence on the long-term impacts of livestock grazing on biodiversity and function is limited. Here, the authors show that grazing impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions are aggravated with aridity using experimental sites across an aridity gradient.
- Minna Zhang
- , Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo
- & Ling Wang
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Article
| Open AccessOn-shelf circulation of warm water toward the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica
The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is grounded below sea level and vulnerable to ocean forcing. Observations and simulations demonstrate warm water access from offshore to the glacier, facilitated by deep topography off the Sabrina Coast.
- Daisuke Hirano
- , Takeshi Tamura
- & Shigeru Aoki
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Article
| Open AccessMolecular rearrangement of bicyclic peroxy radicals is a key route to aerosol from aromatics
The oxidation of aromatics contributes significantly to the formation of atmospheric aerosol. Using toluene as an example the authors demonstrate a molecular rearrangement channel in the oxidation mechanism and show that the bicyclic peroxy radicals are much less stable than previously thought and can lead to aerosol-forming low-volatility products with up to 9 oxygen atoms on sub-second timescales
- Siddharth Iyer
- , Avinash Kumar
- & Matti Rissanen
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Article
| Open AccessNational quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
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Article
| Open AccessSoil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling induces non-linear warming via the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which exerts an accelerating effect on global warming and on extremely high temperatures.
- Liang Qiao
- , Zhiyan Zuo
- & Kaiwen Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessHeterogeneous effects of battery storage deployment strategies on decarbonization of provincial power systems in China
Heterogeneous battery strategy, with each province flexibly choosing different battery strategies, achieves the lowest power system costs. However, this non-uniform strategy only achieves the lowest CO2 emissions at extremely high carbon prices.
- Liqun Peng
- , Denise L. Mauzerall
- & Gang He
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Article
| Open AccessIndian Ocean glacial deoxygenation and respired carbon accumulation during mid-late Quaternary ice ages
Ocean oxygenation regulates respired carbon storage and atmospheric CO2. This study applied a novel analysis using magnetic nanoparticle fossils and found glacial Indian Ocean oxygen decline and carbon accumulation to explain recent climate cycles.
- Liao Chang
- , Babette A. A. Hoogakker
- & Richard J. Harrison
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Article
| Open AccessHow climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states
In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord.
- Parrish Bergquist
- & Christopher Warshaw
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Article
| Open AccessMulti-proxy evidence for sea level fall at the onset of the Eocene-Oligocene transition
Sea level fall with the growth of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 34 million years ago, and the shift in nutrients and carbon from continental margins to the ocean, initially provided a negative feedback that slowed global cooling and ice sheet expansion.
- Marcelo A. De Lira Mota
- , Tom Dunkley Jones
- & James Bendle
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Article
| Open AccessHolocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations
Southern Oman speleothem oxygen isotope and multi-proxy data reveal diverse changes in the Afro-Indian summer monsoon circulations and local hydroclimate conditions during the Holocene, confirming climate model simulations.
- Ye Tian
- , Dominik Fleitmann
- & Hai Cheng
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Article
| Open AccessA contracting Intertropical Convergence Zone during the Early Heinrich Stadial 1
New and existing paleoclimatic records show the rain-belt range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Indo-Asian-Australian monsoon region contracted to the northern low latitudes during the early Heinrich Stadial 1
- Yiping Yang
- , Lanlan Zhang
- & Rong Xiang
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Article
| Open AccessDecadal changes in Atlantic overturning due to the excessive 1990s Labrador Sea convection
Using high-resolution model experiments, the authors identify the rapid spreading of mid-depth density anomalies from the Labrador to the Irminger Sea as a prime mechanism in the generation of decadal changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.
- C. W. Böning
- , P. Wagner
- & A. Biastoch
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Article
| Open AccessWarning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
- Peter Ditlevsen
- & Susanne Ditlevsen
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Article
| Open AccessFuture increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- , Matthew D. K. Priestley
- & Jennifer L. Catto
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessOcean afforestation is a potentially effective way to remove carbon dioxide
- Wei-Lei Wang
- , Mar Fernández-Méndez
- & Minhan Dai
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Ocean afforestation is a potentially effective way to remove carbon dioxide
- Lennart T. Bach
- , Veronica Tamsitt
- & Philip W. Boyd
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Article
| Open AccessOptimal reactive nitrogen control pathways identified for cost-effective PM2.5 mitigation in Europe
Reactive nitrogen (Nr) contributes strongly to PM2.5 air pollution in Europe. Here, authors identify diverse Nr control pathways for Europe depending on emission and pollution formation and a priority of NH3 control when costs are considered.
- Zehui Liu
- , Harald E. Rieder
- & Lin Zhang