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| Open AccessRisk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions
While accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
- Yue Wang
- , Imke J. M. de Boer
- & Corina E. van Middelaar
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| Open AccessPotential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes
The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- , Annika Seppälä
- & Craig J. Rodger
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| Open AccessWind-driven device for cooling permafrost
This work demonstrates a wind-powered device for cooling permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Composed of a windmill, mechanical clutch, and a heat exchanger with a phase change material, pilot experiments show soil temperature reduction with superior efficiency compared to traditional thermosyphons.
- Yinghong Qin
- , Tianyu Wang
- & Weixin Yuan
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| Open AccessClimate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability
No inherently stable peat soil carbon. Researchers found that all molecular components of peatland soil organic carbon responded to warming and eCO2, including the components presumed to be slow cycling and stable.
- Nicholas O. E. Ofiti
- , Michael W. I. Schmidt
- & Avni Malhotra
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| Open AccessEconomic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities
Urban heat islands have the greatest acute impacts on human mortality risk during extreme heat. However, protracted cold seasons result in greater annually integrated protective effects in most European cities under the current climate.
- Wan Ting Katty Huang
- , Pierre Masselot
- & Gabriele Manoli
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| Open AccessTracking lake drainage events and drained lake basin vegetation dynamics across the Arctic
The Arctic is dotted with lakes, including thermokarst lakes highly threatened by climate change. Here, the authors investigate 35 years of lake drainage events and related vegetation trends across the Arctic, finding differences between thermokarst and non-thermokarst lake drainage events.
- Yating Chen
- , Xiao Cheng
- & Chengxin Wang
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| Open AccessEnhanced subglacial discharge from Antarctica during meltwater pulse 1A
This study presents seawater uranium isotope records based on deep-sea corals from the Drake Passage to track subglacial discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, demonstrating a causal link between enhanced subglacial discharge, retreat of the ice sheet, and the rapid rise in sea levels.
- Tao Li
- , Laura F. Robinson
- & James W. B. Rae
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| Open AccessAerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
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| Open AccessReconciling Southern Ocean fronts equatorward migration with minor Antarctic ice volume change during Miocene cooling
Hou et al. propose, based on dinocysts, clumped isotopes and ice sheet modelling, that during Miocene cooling, the Antarctic ice sheet progressively lowered in height while expanding seawards, to maintain a relatively stable volume.
- Suning Hou
- , Lennert B. Stap
- & Peter K. Bijl
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| Open AccessReversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades
The authors find a significant increase in daily maximum temperature warming rates, while daily minimum temperatures remain stable over land in recent decades. This may be due to reduced cloud cover, leading to increased incoming solar radiation.
- Ziqian Zhong
- , Bin He
- & Xiang Zhao
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| Open AccessRapid disintegration and weakening of ice shelves in North Greenland
North Greenland ice shelves have lost more than a third of their masses, thinning dramatically from below due to increased ocean temperatures. In response, grounding lines have retreated and the amount of ice discharged into the ocean has increased.
- R. Millan
- , E. Jager
- & A. Bjørk
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Article
| Open AccessDecarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030
Electric vehicle sales goals alone will not achieve light duty vehicle emissions targets. Other actions including decarbonizing the electric grid, mode shifting, vehicle downsizing, reducing travel demand, and accelerating fleet turnover, are needed.
- Maxwell Woody
- , Gregory A. Keoleian
- & Parth Vaishnav
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Article
| Open AccessOrigin of outer tropical cyclone rainbands
Convectively active, hazardous rainbands within tropical cyclones are shown to originate primarily from outside the inner core of the cyclone. This outer-origin dominance is partly attributed to squall-line processes and deserves future attention.
- Cheng-Ku Yu
- , Che-Yu Lin
- & Chi-Hang Pun
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| Open AccessAtlantic-origin water extension into the Pacific Arctic induced an anomalous biogeochemical event
The authors show that the appearance of anomalously low oxygen and acidified water on the Chukchi Plateau, a high-seas fishable area of the western Arctic Ocean, is associated with a change in basin-scale ocean circulation related to the recent sea ice loss.
- Shigeto Nishino
- , Jinyoung Jung
- & Sung-Ho Kang
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| Open AccessIncreasing ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wavefield since the late 20th century
Ocean waves induce geographically extensive seafloor forces that excite a continuous and globally detectable seismic wavefield. This study infers global near-coastal average wave energy intensification at a rate of 0.27% per year since the late 1980’s, and 0.35% per year since January 2000.
- Richard C. Aster
- , Adam T. Ringler
- & Thomas A. Lee
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| Open AccessGlobal climate forcing on late Miocene establishment of the Pampean aeolian system in South America
Wind-blown dust accumulation in central South America began during a period of global cooling and has persisted for millions of years. This corresponds with the expansion of the Chinese Loess Plateau and is consistent with bihemispheric forcing.
- Blake Stubbins
- , Andrew L. Leier
- & Mary Kate Fidler
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| Open AccessRecent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters
By analyzing historical and Argo observations, the authors find that the warming of mode and intermediate water layers drives most of the global upper 2000 m ocean warming, highlighting the outsized heat uptake by regional water masses in both hemispheres.
- Zhi Li
- , Matthew H. England
- & Sjoerd Groeskamp
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| Open AccessUrban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century
Considering changes in urban land extent, population, and climate over the 21st century, the authors find spatial urban land patterns can reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, at regional scales.
- Jing Gao
- & Melissa S. Bukovsky
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| Open AccessHeat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends
Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- , Julien Cattiaux
- & Pascal Yiou
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| Open AccessWildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales
This paper shows that weather and fuel precursors show complementary predictability of wildfires extending across different timescales, which may be leveraged for seasonal or interannual wildfire prediction.
- Yuquan Qu
- , Diego G. Miralles
- & Carsten Montzka
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| Open AccessOveremphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events
This study shows the crucial role of subtropical ENSO dynamics linked to the North Pacific Meridional Mode in generating multi-year La Niña events, challenging the traditional views that emphasized the role of El Niño amplitude in the preceding year.
- Ji-Won Kim
- , Jin-Yi Yu
- & Baijun Tian
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| Open AccessClimate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale
Global-scale structural connectivity is modeled by tectonic and climate processes. Modeling suggests that as the climate warms, it could lead to increased erosion in source areas, while decreased rainfall may hinder sediment flow downstream.
- Alexander T. Michalek
- , Gabriele Villarini
- & Admin Husic
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| Open AccessDynamic redox and nutrient cycling response to climate forcing in the Mesoproterozoic ocean
Regional ocean redox variability and associated nutrient cycling in the Mesoproterozoic can be explained by climate forcing at individual locations, rather than specific events or step-changes in global oceanic redox conditions.
- Yafang Song
- , Fred T. Bowyer
- & Simon W. Poulton
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| Open AccessPatterns and drivers of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands
Wetlands can affect regional climate by altering surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper investigates drivers and patterns of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands, from the Amazon floodplains to the large Pantanal system.
- Ayan Santos Fleischmann
- , Leonardo Laipelt
- & Anderson Ruhoff
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| Open AccessArctic weather variability and connectivity
The authors use a complexity-based approach to analyze Arctic weather variability. They identify a pronounced link between the Arctic’s shrinking sea ice and global weather patterns, underscoring the critical role of the Arctic in shaping global climate.
- Jun Meng
- , Jingfang Fan
- & Jürgen Kurths
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
This study quantifies mid-21st century hourly building energy use in 277 urban areas in the USA, revealing spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes influenced by future climate, population dynamics, and electric power sector decarbonization.
- Chenghao Wang
- , Jiyun Song
- & Robert B. Jackson
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| Open AccessWindows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022
This paper highlights the potential for improved monitoring and physical understanding to identify windows of opportunity for more confident seasonal forecasts and early warnings of regional climate extremes, such as the Pakistan floods of 2022.
- Nick Dunstone
- , Doug M. Smith
- & Adam A. Scaife
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Article
| Open AccessMethylphosphonate-driven methane formation and its link to primary production in the oligotrophic North Atlantic
The origin of methane in oxic waters of the open ocean remains uncertain. This study documents methylphosphonate-driven methane formation in the tropical North Atlantic, providing insights into the ecological importance of phosphonates in the carbon cycle of the oligotrophic ocean.
- Jan N. von Arx
- , Abiel T. Kidane
- & Jana Milucka
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| Open AccessVertical structures of marine heatwaves
The authors identify four main types of vertical structures of marine heatwaves, with different impact depths and spatio-temporal distributions, that are influenced by multiscale ocean dynamical processes.
- Ying Zhang
- , Yan Du
- & Alistair J. Hobday
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| Open AccessWarming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes
This paper shows that the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions is constant due to complex interactions of physical and biogeochemical processes, and not because heat and carbon are mixed into the ocean by similar processes.
- Nathan P. Gillett
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| Open AccessMoisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
- Pavan Harika Raavi
- , Jung-Eun Chu
- & Kevin J. E. Walsh
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| Open AccessFuture precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect
A new emergent constraint on precipitation projection, based on a unified surface-energy-balance perspective that links hydrological and climate sensitivity to climatological cloud distribution, suggests a higher increase in global mean precipitation under climate change.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
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| Open AccessEnhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming
Using output from climate models, this study shows that a wetter mean state over the off-equatorial eastern Pacific is the single key driver of the enhanced impact of northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO under anthropogenic global warming.
- Hyun-Su Jo
- & Yoo-Geun Ham
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| Open AccessEnhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
The study identifies windows of opportunity for multi-year climate predictions, depending on the state of ENSO. Predictions started during El Niño and La Niña exhibit higher skill than predictions started during neutral ENSO conditions.
- Yiling Liu
- , Markus. G. Donat
- & Carlos Delgado-Torres
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Article
| Open AccessMeteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems
Sundar and colleagues characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive resource adequacy failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. They find that at 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all resource adequacy failures.
- Srihari Sundar
- , Michael T. Craig
- & Flavio Lehner
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| Open AccessClimate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures
The effects of climate change on the yield and aroma of beer hops remains unknown. Here the authors demonstrate a climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of traditional aroma hops across Europe and calls for urgent adaptation measures to stabilize international market chains.
- Martin Mozny
- , Miroslav Trnka
- & Ulf Büntgen
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| Open AccessImpact of global climate cooling on Ordovician marine biodiversity
The largest increase in marine biodiversity in Earth’s history took place nearly 500 million years ago during a geological period called the Ordovician. This event is well documented based on paleontological data, but its causes are debated. This study uses a numerical model to demonstrate that global climate cooling may have triggered biodiversification at that time.
- Daniel Eliahou Ontiveros
- , Gregory Beaugrand
- & Alexandre Pohl
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| Open AccessWarming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation
This study, based on a large set of climate simulations, suggests a delay and reduction of hurricane formation in a warmer climate, linked to the warming-induced contraction of tropical ascents that makes rainstorms more concentrated near the equator.
- Gan Zhang
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| Open AccessDrought and heat reduce forest carbon uptake
Climate extremes threaten the land carbon sink and it is important to understand their impact in a changing climate. A recent study provides new insights on reduced forest carbon uptake during the severe 2022 drought and heatwave across Europe.
- Sebastian Wolf
- & Eugénie Paul-Limoges
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| Open AccessRebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles
Autonomous electric vehicles reduce operational emissions but increase manufacturing emissions due to rebound effects. Recycling helps, but their full life cycle emits 8% more greenhouse gases. Embrace renewable energy, circular economy, cleaner manufacturing, and improved efficiency.
- Nuri C. Onat
- , Jafar Mandouri
- & Abdel Magid Hamouda
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| Open AccessTemperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe
Heat and moisture stress can reduce carbon uptake by forests. Here, the authors quantify this effect for the extreme 2022 European summer drought. The widespread reduction of photosynthesis exceeded the large local carbon release by intense fires.
- Auke M. van der Woude
- , Wouter Peters
- & Ingrid T. Luijkx
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| Open AccessDrivers of Antarctic sea ice advance
Processes controlling the onset of the Antarctic sea ice season remain unclear. Here, analyses of observations show that ocean solar energy storage and sea ice drift are key drivers, providing insights to understand variations in sea ice season duration.
- Kenza Himmich
- , Martin Vancoppenolle
- & Marion Lebrun
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Article
| Open AccessA cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming
Will snow become cleaner or dirtier in the future? Using Earth System Model simulations, this study reveals a cleaner snow future and highlights its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt.
- Dalei Hao
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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| Open AccessUnchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska
This study triples the number of previously known glacial lake outbursts in Alaska, documenting 1150 events over 35 years. The frequency of events did not change over time but total lake volume decreased, likely reducing the regional flood hazard.
- B. Rick
- , D. McGrath
- & W. H. Armstrong
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing
The effective hygroscopicity of organic matter and inorganic ions in atmospheric aerosols can be efficiently and accurately parameterized by global average values to constrain a critically important aspect in climate and Earth system models
- Mira L. Pöhlker
- , Christopher Pöhlker
- & Ulrich Pöschl
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| Open AccessSustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation
Sustainable development of blue carbon has increased globally over the past two decades. Global cooperation could enable countries to improve blue carbon sustainable development, increase carbon sequestration, and generate up to $136.34 million in 2030 in economic benefits.
- Cuicui Feng
- , Guanqiong Ye
- & Zhenci Xu
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Article
| Open AccessRegionally sourced bioaerosols drive high-temperature ice nucleating particles in the Arctic
Primary bioaerosols, important for clouds and climate, were measured at an Arctic mountain site and traced to regional sources. Their seasonality was observed to peak in summer, where they significantly contribute to high-temperature ice nucleating particles.
- Gabriel Pereira Freitas
- , Kouji Adachi
- & Paul Zieger
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| Open AccessCarbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications
Dixit et al. trace emissions from the extraction and transport of oil. They quantify emissions variability among crude blends and suggest how this variability could be used to further reduce emissions under scenarios for reduced future oil demand.
- Yash Dixit
- , Hassan El-Houjeiri
- & Steven R. H. Barrett
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| Open AccessEast Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are found to be synchronized at the subseasonal timescale via a Rossby wave triggered by the Indian summer monsoon heating. The impact on East Asian precipitation varies with the subtropical jet structure.
- Shixue Li
- , Tomonori Sato
- & Wenkai Guo