Research articles

A temperate grassland experiment shows that CO₂ fertilization increases above-ground biomass most strongly under local average environmental conditions, but the effect is reduced or disappears under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences tropical cyclone variability. Under climate change, cyclones around Pacific island nations are projected to increase in frequency during El Niño events and decrease during La Niña events.

Increasing dry season length in central Panama reduced population growth rates and viability in nearly one-third of the 20 tropical bird species investigated. Such changes are projected to alter tropical bird community structure in protected areas.

Five equitable approaches to mitigation are investigated: the authors find that most developing countries are more ambitious than the average, whilst if developed nations and China adopted the average of the approaches the gap between INDCs and a 2 °C pathway would narrow.

Households’ carbon footprints often differ with wealth and level of consumption. This study shows the urban rich disproportionally contribute to the Chinese carbon footprint, whilst overall household footprints are growing with increased consumerism.

Surface melt has been tied to the collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. This study illustrates that warmer temperatures associated with katabatic winds drive similar processes in an East Antarctic ice shelf, highlighting vulnerability to disintegration.

Climate change is causing increases in extreme rainfall across the United States. This study uses observations and high-resolution modelling to show that rainfall changes related to rising temperatures depend on the available atmospheric moisture.

How ocean acidification will impact coastal biogenic habitats is unclear. This study predicts that indirect effects on habitat-forming organisms, combined with direct effects on biodiversity, will cause changes in structural complexity and extent of these habitats.

Global high-resolution crop-specific estimates of greenhouse gas emissions intensity (in 2000) reveal that certain cropping practices contribute disproportionately to emissions, making them suitable targets for climate mitigation policies.

Projected decreases in subtropical rainfall have previously been attributed to enhanced moisture transport or atmospheric circulation changes. New research shows that neither is the key mechanism, and instead greater land–sea temperature contrast in response to direct radiative forcing dominates.

A coupled agriculture and health modelling framework shows that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could be a health-promoting climate policy in high-, mid-, and low-income economies.

Climate impact projections for plant taxa using models calibrated with palaeo-data for the past 21,000 years increase, on average, the conservation threat status of European and North American plants.

Data from 4,038 households in India show wireless sensors could make clean energy solutions affordable for those at the bottom of the energy pyramid.

The Arctic winter polar vortex has weakened in recent years: this study shows that there has also been a shift in the location of the vortex towards Eurasia. This is related to cryospheric changes, with implications for mid-latitude weather.

Photoperiod is only an important leaf-out regulator for woody plants in areas with short winters and in lineages that derive from lower latitudes. Consequently, photoperiod constraint on range expansion should be limited to these areas and species.

Analysis of the US’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) shows additional policies are likely to be needed for it to meet its promised emissions reduction target, and highlights where deeper cuts could be made.

Aquifer characteristics and water use data for 43 widely distributed small island states indicate that 44% are in a state of water stress. While recharge is projected to increase on 12 islands it is projected to decrease by up to 58% on the other 31.

The use of natural high-CO₂ sites to assess the impact of ocean acidification on coral reef zooplankton shows a threefold reduction in biomass compared with ambient-CO₂ sites. However, zooplankton species distribution is unchanged. The reduction may be partly due to a change in coral species.

Climate change is expected to lead to significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and endemism at a continental scale in Australia, threatening the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypt trees that dominate much of the continent.

Assessment of the emergence of novel climatic combinations, rapid displacement of climatic isoclines, and divergence between temperature and precipitation trends provides an indication of where and why novel communities are likely to emerge.