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| Open AccessEffects of infection history on dengue virus infection and pathogenicity
Lack of knowledge of individual infection history hinders understanding of immunological interactions among DENV serotypes. Here, the authors introduce a framework to infer the relationship between unobserved infection history and subsequent infection and disease risk, and find complex dependencies.
- Tim K. Tsang
- , Samson L. Ghebremariam
- & Yang Yang
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| Open AccessInter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China
In 2014 Guangzhou, China experienced its worse dengue epidemic on record. To determine the reasons for this the authors model historical data under combinations of four time-varying factors and find that past epidemics were limited by one or more unfavourable conditions, but the 2014 epidemic faced none of these restraints.
- Rachel J. Oidtman
- , Shengjie Lai
- & Hongjie Yu
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| Open AccessMulti-cohort study identifies social determinants of systemic inflammation over the life course
Here, the authors explore the relationship between socioeconomic position (SEP) across the life course and inflammation in a multi-cohort study and show that educational attainment is most strongly related to inflammation, suggesting that socioeconomic disadvantage in young adulthood is independently associated with later life inflammation.
- Eloïse Berger
- , Raphaële Castagné
- & Michelle Kelly-Irving
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Article
| Open AccessSuicide among cancer patients
Cancer patients are at an increased risk of suicide: elderly, white, unmarried males with localized disease are at highest risk vs other cancer patients. Among those diagnosed at < 50 years of age, the plurality of suicides is from hematologic and testicular tumors; if > 50, from prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer patients.
- Nicholas G. Zaorsky
- , Ying Zhang
- & Vernon M. Chinchilli
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| Open AccessImproved state-level influenza nowcasting in the United States leveraging Internet-based data and network approaches
Real-time disease surveillance can aid mitigation of outbreaks. Here, Lu et al. combine an approach using Google search and EHR data with an approach leveraging spatiotemporal synchronicities of influenza activity across states to improve state-level influenza activity estimates in the US.
- Fred S. Lu
- , Mohammad W. Hattab
- & Mauricio Santillana
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| Open AccessLongevity defined as top 10% survivors and beyond is transmitted as a quantitative genetic trait
While human lifespan is only moderately heritable, “getting old” runs in families. Here, van den Berg et al. study mortality data from three-generation cohorts to define a threshold for longevity and find that individuals have an increasing survival advantage with each additional relative in the top 10% survivors of their birth cohort.
- Niels van den Berg
- , Mar Rodríguez-Girondo
- & P. Eline Slagboom
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| Open AccessThe utility of serology for elimination surveillance of trachoma
Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, Pinsent et al. analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low transmission and post-elimination settings.
- Amy Pinsent
- , Anthony W. Solomon
- & Michael. T. White
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| Open AccessPaternal grandfather’s access to food predicts all-cause and cancer mortality in grandsons
Nutritional experience can have phenotypic consequences in subsequent generations, as is evident from studies in animals and plants. Here, Vågerö et al. find in a large three-generation cohort that access to food in the paternal grandfather associates with all-cause and cancer mortality in male grandchildren.
- Denny Vågerö
- , Pia R. Pinger
- & Gerard J. van den Berg
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| Open AccessSystematic review of indoor residual spray efficacy and effectiveness against Plasmodium falciparum in Africa
Indoor residual spraying is a commonly used method for mosquito, and malaria, control and there are a number of available insecticides that are available for this. Here, the authors evaluate the efficacy of widely-used and novel insecticides against pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes.
- Ellie Sherrard-Smith
- , Jamie T. Griffin
- & Thomas S. Churcher
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| Open AccessNational and sub-national variation in patterns of febrile case management in sub-Saharan Africa
Treatment-seeking for fever is widely used to estimate treatment of childhood infections, but cross-country comparisons are problematic. Here, the authors estimate the probability of seeking treatment for fever at public facilities across 29 countries by quantifying person-level latent variables.
- Victor A. Alegana
- , Joseph Maina
- & Andrew J. Tatem
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| Open AccessSubstantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys
The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.
- Edwin Michael
- , Morgan E. Smith
- & Frank O. Richards
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Article
| Open AccessPhylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak
During the last Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, a large amount of viral genomic data was obtained. Here, Dellicour et al. use phylodynamic approaches to assess effect of intervention strategies such as border closures.
- Simon Dellicour
- , Guy Baele
- & Philippe Lemey
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| Open AccessHorizontal antimicrobial resistance transfer drives epidemics of multiple Shigella species
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Shigella species is a public health concern. Here, Baker et al. show how horizontal transfer of an AMR plasmid among Shigella species contributes to epidemics in men who have sex with men in England.
- Kate S. Baker
- , Timothy J. Dallman
- & Nicholas Thomson
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| Open AccessRole of monkeys in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in Senegal
The authors examine the role of monkey populations in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in the Kédougou region, Senegal. The authors show that monkeys are amplification hosts, as opposed to reservoir hosts for infection. These findings expand our knowledge of the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus in this region of Senegal.
- Benjamin M. Althouse
- , Mathilde Guerbois
- & Kathryn A. Hanley
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| Open AccessGene-by-environment interactions in urban populations modulate risk phenotypes
Individuals with different genotypes may respond differently to environmental variation. Here, Favé et al. find substantial impacts of different environment exposures on the transcriptome and clinical endophenotypes when controlling for genetic ancestry by analyzing data from ∼1000 individuals from a founder population in Quebec.
- Marie-Julie Favé
- , Fabien C. Lamaze
- & Philip Awadalla
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| Open AccessCharacterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics
Understanding global epidemics spread is crucial for preparedness and response. Here the authors introduce an analytical framework to study epidemic spread on air transport networks, and demonstrate its power to estimate key epidemic parameters by application to the recent influenza pandemic and Ebola outbreak.
- Lin Wang
- & Joseph T. Wu
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| Open AccessDiffusion of treatment in social networks and mass drug administration
Mass drug administration depends on the distributors’ contact with community members. Using data of deworming treatment distribution from Ugandan villages, the authors show that community medicine distributors with tightly-knit friendship connections achieve the greatest reach and speed of coverage.
- Goylette F. Chami
- , Andreas A. Kontoleon
- & David W. Dunne
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| Open AccessRegional variation in health is predominantly driven by lifestyle rather than genetics
Health-related traits are known to vary geographically. Here, Amador and colleagues show that regional variation of obesity-related traits in a Scottish population is influenced more by lifestyle differences than it is by genetic differences.
- Carmen Amador
- , Charley Xia
- & Chris S. Haley
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| Open AccessTrade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China
International and domestic interprovincial trade of China are entangled, but their health impacts have been treated separately in earlier studies. Here Wang. quantify the complex impacts of trade on public health across China within an integrative framework.
- Haikun Wang
- , Yanxu Zhang
- & Michael B. McElroy
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| Open AccessCommon variants in ZMIZ1 and near NGF confer risk for primary dysmenorrhoea
Primary dysmenorrhoea, the most common gynaecologic complaint, remains genetically and pathophysiologically elusive. Here, Li and colleagues identify common variants inZMIZ1 and near NGFconferring risk for primary dysmenorrhoea using genome-wide association study in a Chinese population.
- Zhiqiang Li
- , Jianhua Chen
- & Yongyong Shi
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| Open AccessExercise contagion in a global social network
Some argue that health-related behaviours, such as obesity, are contagious, but empirical evidence of health contagion remains inconclusive. Here, using a large scale quasi-experiment in a global network of runners, Aral and Nicolaides show that this type of contagion exists in fitness behaviours.
- Sinan Aral
- & Christos Nicolaides
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| Open AccessIntestinal microbiome is related to lifetime antibiotic use in Finnish pre-school children
The impact of antibiotics on the microbiome and health of children is poorly understood. Here, Korpela et al. study the gut microbiome of 142 children and show that the use of macrolides, but not penicillins, is associated with long-lasting shifts in microbiota composition and increased risk of asthma and overweight.
- Katri Korpela
- , Anne Salonen
- & Willem M. de Vos
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| Open AccessExome-wide association analysis reveals novel coding sequence variants associated with lipid traits in Chinese
An important risk factor for coronary artery disease is the level of blood lipids. Here the authors conduct an exome-wide association study in Chinese cohorts and identify three novel loci associated with lipid levels as well as three Asian-specific variants in known loci.
- Clara S. Tang
- , He Zhang
- & Wei Gao
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| Open AccessGenome-wide association study identifies new susceptibility loci for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis in Chinese girls
The authors perform a genome-wide association study of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients of Han Chinese descent, and identify 3 new loci for disease susceptibility.
- Zezhang Zhu
- , Nelson Leung-Sang Tang
- & Jack Chun-Yiu Cheng
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| Open AccessGenome-wide association of polycystic ovary syndrome implicates alterations in gonadotropin secretion in European ancestry populations
Polycystic Ovary Sydrome is a highly heritable, complex reproductive disorder with unknown underlying genetic factors. Here Hayes and Urbanek et al. identify three loci in European women strongly associated with neuroendocrine changes and disease susceptibility.
- M. Geoffrey Hayes
- , Margrit Urbanek
- & Andrea Dunaif
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Identification of myopia-associated WNT7B polymorphisms provides insights into the mechanism underlying the development of myopia
Myopia is a significant and increasing public health concern. Here Miyake et al. conduct a genome-wide association study and identify WNT7Bas a susceptibility gene across different ethnic groups, suggesting a possible role in the development of myopia.
- Masahiro Miyake
- , Kenji Yamashiro
- & Nagahisa Yoshimura
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Genome-wide association study identifies a new susceptibility locus for cleft lip with or without a cleft palate
Cleft lip is one of the most common congenital birth defects with substantial impairments to quality of life. Here, Sun et al. identify a new locus associated with cleft lip in diverse Chinese populations.
- Yimin Sun
- , Yongqing Huang
- & Yinxue Yang
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Evidence for zoonotic potential of ovine scrapie prions
Scrapie, a form of prion disease that affects sheep and goats, is believed not to be transmissible to humans. Using transgenic mice expressing human prion protein as a model of cross-species prion transmission, the authors show that ovine scrapie may possess potential to be passed on to humans.
- Hervé Cassard
- , Juan-Maria Torres
- & Olivier Andréoletti
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A chemo-centric view of human health and disease
Forecasting unwanted interactions between drugs and chemicals in human body is an important but yet unmet need. Here the authors build networks that can predict comorbidities and drug side effects, by analysing the existing database that compiles effects of drugs and chemicals on human conditions.
- Miquel Duran-Frigola
- , David Rossell
- & Patrick Aloy
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Respiratory transmission of an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from a harbour seal
Avian influenza viruses constantly threaten human health as evidenced by the outbreaks of human H7N9 infections. Here, Karlsson et al. show that an avian H3N8 virus isolated from harbour seals has the potential to infect, cause disease and transmit in mammalian models of influenza virus infection.
- Erik A. Karlsson
- , Hon S. Ip
- & Stacey Schultz-Cherry
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African origin of the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax
Plasmodium vivax, the leading cause of human malaria in Asia and Latin America, is thought to have an Asian origin. Here, the authors show that wild chimpanzees and gorillas in Africa are infected with parasites that are closely related to P. vivax, indicating an African origin for this species.
- Weimin Liu
- , Yingying Li
- & Paul M. Sharp
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Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012–2013 season
Our ability to accurately predict the spread of infectious diseases is still in its infancy. Here, Shamanet al.develop a model framework that produces accurate real-time forecasts of influenza peak timing for over a hundred cities in the USA.
- Jeffrey Shaman
- , Alicia Karspeck
- & Marc Lipsitch
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| Open AccessHuman gut microbiota community structures in urban and rural populations in Russia
The structure of the human gut microbiota has been shown to vary between populations. Tyakht et al.analyse the gut microbiota assembly from Russian individuals living in urban and rural areas, and compare these with previously studied populations.
- Alexander V. Tyakht
- , Elena S. Kostryukova
- & Vadim M. Govorun
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| Open AccessFactors determining the occurrence of submicroscopic malaria infections and their relevance for control
Malaria can persist at levels that escape detection by standard microscopy, but can be detected by PCR. Okell et al.now show that rates of submicroscopic infection can be predicted using more widely available microscopy data, and are most epidemiologically significant in areas with low malaria transmission.
- Lucy C. Okell
- , Teun Bousema
- & Chris J. Drakeley
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| Open AccessEstimating the potential public health impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in African children
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention can lower the incidence of malaria in areas where transmission is highly periodical. Combining data on rainfall, population and malaria endemicity, Cairnset al. identify geographical areas in sub-Saharan Africa where this intervention is likely to be effective and cost-effective.
- Matthew Cairns
- , Arantxa Roca-Feltrer
- & Brian M. Greenwood
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Isoniazid resistance without a loss of fitness in Mycobacterium tuberculosis
The treatment ofMycobacterium tuberculosis with drugs such as isoniazid often results in drug resistance, but the mechanisms leading to the resistance are not fully known. In this study, an M. tuberculosisstrain lacking the sigma factor I is shown to be resistant to isoniazid.
- Jong-Hee Lee
- , Nicole C. Ammerman
- & William R. Bishai
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Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China
Population demographics affect influenza transmission at large spatial scales. Here, influenza immunity is shown to vary spatially in a way unexplained by differences in demographics, suggesting that there are aspects of locations that drive influenza transmission other than individual and household risk factors.
- Justin Lessler
- , Derek A.T. Cummings
- & Steven Riley
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Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe
The sensitivity of human populations to rising global temperatures is not yet fully understood. The authors describe the link between temperature and daily mortality in over 200 European regions and calculate projections of mortality from climate models under greenhouse gas scenario simulations.
- Joan Ballester
- , Jean-Marie Robine
- & Xavier Rodó
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| Open AccessA quantitative analysis of transmission efficiency versus intensity for malaria
Recent work has shown that the transmission of malaria from mosquito to human is inefficient. In this study, an analysis of published literature is used to understand this inefficiency, which is likely due to heterogeneous biting, where 20% of people receive 80% of the bites.
- David L. Smith
- , Chris J. Drakeley
- & Simon I. Hay