Featured
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Editorial
| Open AccessPromoting the science of One Health
One Health refers to the interconnectedness of the health of humans, animals, and the environment. It recognises that coordination across sectors is needed for effective prevention, detection, and management of infectious disease threats. Although the concept of One Health is not new, it has gained increased prominence following the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting national and international institutions to adopt One Health policies aimed at preventing disease spillover
1 –4 . At Nature Communications, we have launched a Collection and call for papers in recognition of the need for better scientific evidence to support One Health policy ambitions. -
Article
| Open AccessPreventing antimalarial drug resistance with triple artemisinin-based combination therapies
Triple artemisinin-based combination therapies have shown high efficacy for treatment of malaria in preliminary studies. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to assess whether these therapies could also delay the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance when compared against frontline therapies.
- Tran Dang Nguyen
- , Bo Gao
- & Ricardo Aguas
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Article
| Open AccessA small area model to assess temporal trends and sub-national disparities in healthcare quality
Here, authors present an approach to assess subnational healthcare quality, leveraging health facility survey data. The method jointly estimates indicators over space and time, and may provide insights to decision-makers and health service program managers.
- Adrien Allorant
- , Nancy Fullman
- & Robert C. Reiner Jr
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Article
| Open AccessWastewater-based epidemiology predicts COVID-19-induced weekly new hospital admissions in over 150 USA counties
Wastewater-based epidemiology is increasingly used to predict disease occurrence. Here, the authors use SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater in machine learning models to predict COVID-19 related hospitalisation in the United States.
- Xuan Li
- , Huan Liu
- & Qilin Wang
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Article
| Open AccessEstimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach
Evaluation of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines is increasingly challenging due to high levels of exposure to infection and vaccination. Here, the authors use a model-based approach incorporating these factors and estimate that using a variant-matched rather than ancestral booster could prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over one year.
- Alexandra B. Hogan
- , Patrick Doohan
- & Azra C. Ghani
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Article
| Open AccessHerpes zoster vaccine safety in the Aotearoa New Zealand population: a self-controlled case series study
The herpes zoster vaccine live was approved in New Zealand in 2018 for use in older adults. This self-controlled case-series study uses whole-country electronic health record data to assess the risk of serious adverse events associated with the vaccine, with results supporting its safety.
- James F. Mbinta
- , Alex X. Wang
- & Colin R. Simpson
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Article
| Open AccessPrevalence of diabetic retinopathy and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy in adults with diabetes in China
Current data on the national distribution of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is lacking. Here, the authors show the national distribution, associated multi-level factors, and visual impairment of DR and vision-threatening DR in Chinese adults with diabetes.
- Xuhong Hou
- , Limin Wang
- & Weiping Jia
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Article
| Open AccessEpidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by periods of dominance of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In this mathematical modelling study, the authors investigate the epidemiological properties of successive variants in England until early 2022 and quantify the impacts of control measures.
- Pablo N. Perez-Guzman
- , Edward Knock
- & Marc Baguelin
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom
An outbreak of Mpox in the UK began in May 2022 and peaked in July. In this modelling study, the authors show that the decline in cases was likely due to behavioural changes among high-risk populations, whilst vaccination could prevent a rebound.
- Samuel P. C. Brand
- , Massimo Cavallaro
- & Matt J. Keeling
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Article
| Open AccessReal-time environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 aerosols
Rapid detection of respiratory pathogens circulating in indoor environments could facilitate improved infection prevention responses. In this proof-of-concept study, the authors develop a pathogen air quality monitor for real-time direct detection of SARS-CoV-2 aerosols and demonstrate its application in rooms of people with SARS-CoV-2 infections.
- Joseph V. Puthussery
- , Dishit P. Ghumra
- & Rajan K. Chakrabarty
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Article
| Open AccessDetecting temporal and spatial malaria patterns from first antenatal care visits
Pregnant people visiting antenatal clinics may represent a useful sentinel surveillance population for monitoring infections such as malaria. Here, the authors investigate the potential of this approach by comparing malaria prevalence in pregnant people and children living in the same area of southern Mozambique.
- Arnau Pujol
- , Nanna Brokhattingen
- & Alfredo Mayor
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Article
| Open AccessLongitudinal body mass index and cancer risk: a cohort study of 2.6 million Catalan adults
Here, the authors show that longer duration and greater degree of overweight and obesity during early adulthood as well as younger age of onset of a high body mass index are associated with a higher risk of 18 cancer types.
- Martina Recalde
- , Andrea Pistillo
- & Talita Duarte-Salles
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Article
| Open AccessGenomic epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae during a mass vaccination campaign of displaced communities in Bangladesh
The Cox’s Bazar area of Bangladesh has received a large number of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals. Cholera outbreaks have been detected in the area, and here, the authors perform genomic surveillance of cholera in the refugee and non-refugee population to infer the risk of epidemic spread.
- Alyce Taylor-Brown
- , Mokibul Hassan Afrad
- & Firdausi Qadri
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Article
| Open AccessPractical intelligent diagnostic algorithm for wearable 12-lead ECG via self-supervised learning on large-scale dataset
Intelligent diagnostic algorithms for ECG are becoming increasingly important to reduce the workload of cardiologists, enable telemedicine and real-time monitoring. Here, the authors show a model based on self-supervised learning that can classify 60 diagnostic terms for ECG.
- Jiewei Lai
- , Huixin Tan
- & Wei Yang
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Article
| Open AccessMultiplexed ddPCR-amplicon sequencing reveals isolated Plasmodium falciparum populations amenable to local elimination in Zanzibar, Tanzania
Sequencing malaria parasites from low density infections in small amounts of dried blood is important for large-scale genomic surveillance. Here, the authors develop and validate a highly multiplexed droplet digital PCR-based amplicon deep sequencing assay and apply it to data from Zanzibar, Tanzania.
- Aurel Holzschuh
- , Anita Lerch
- & Cristian Koepfli
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Article
| Open AccessNatural history of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study
The long-term natural history of long-COVID is not well understood. In this population-based cohort study from Scotland, the authors describe symptom prevalence and health-related quality of life up to 18 months after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and compare with matched test-negative controls.
- Claire E. Hastie
- , David J. Lowe
- & Jill P. Pell
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Article
| Open AccessPredicting the antigenic evolution of SARS-COV-2 with deep learning
SARS-CoV-2’s rapid evolution threatens public health. Here, authors present a deep learning approach to forecast high-risk mutations that may appear in the future, aiding vaccine development and enhancing preparedness against future variants.
- Wenkai Han
- , Ningning Chen
- & Xin Gao
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Article
| Open AccessAugmented temperature fluctuation aggravates muscular atrophy through the gut microbiota
Higher diurnal temperature range in humans correlates with the prevalence of sarcopenia. Here, the authors show that fluctuated temperature exposure accelerates muscle atrophy and dampens exercise performance via altering microbiota composition in aged mice.
- Ya Liu
- , Yifan Guo
- & Yan Huang
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Article
| Open AccessNo evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data
Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic malaria parasite that can infect humans, but whether human-mosquito-human transmission occurs is not known. Here, the authors use data from Malaysia and show, through mathematical modelling, that sustained non-zoonotic transmission is unlikely to be occurring in this setting.
- Kimberly M. Fornace
- , Hillary M. Topazian
- & Chris Drakeley
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Article
| Open AccessNewborn metabolomic signatures of maternal per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance exposure and reduced length of gestation
Mechanisms of the impact of PFAS (also known as forever chemicals) on adverse birth outcomes remain largely unknown. Here, authors identified tissue neogenesis, neuroendocrine function, and redox homeostasis as imprints of prenatal PFAS exposures and reduced gestational age in the newborn metabolome.
- Kaitlin R. Taibl
- , Anne L. Dunlop
- & Donghai Liang
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence-driven spatiotemporal COVID-19 hospitalization prediction with Ising dynamics
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, accurate hospitalization predictions are vital. Here, the authors show that a deep learning model based on statistical mechanics is able to forecast hospitalizations, supporting targeted vaccination efforts.
- Junyi Gao
- , Joerg Heintz
- & Jimeng Sun
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Article
| Open AccessComparative mRNA booster effectiveness against death or hospitalization with COVID-19 pneumonia across at-risk US Veteran populations
mRNA boosters have been shown to be effective against severe COVID-19 illness. In this work, the authors show that in high-risk populations, three doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine instead of BNT162b2 vaccine conferred a small benefit against death or hospitalization with COVID-19 pneumonia.
- J. Daniel Kelly
- , Samuel Leonard
- & Salomeh Keyhani
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Article
| Open AccessLong COVID risk and pre-COVID vaccination in an EHR-based cohort study from the RECOVER program
The extent to which COVID-19 vaccination protects against long COVID is not well understood. Here, the authors use electronic health record data from the United States and find that, for people who received their vaccination prior to infection, vaccination was associated with lower incidence of long COVID.
- M. Daniel Brannock
- , Robert F. Chew
- & Stuart Katz
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Article
| Open AccessImpaired humoral immunity to BQ.1.1 in convalescent and vaccinated patients
Dewald et al. show a high Spike-IgG seroprevalence (95%) in a multicenter study with 1,411 participants. They determined a substantially reduced serum neutralization against the SARS-CoV-2 VOCs BA.4/5 and BQ.1.1. and explored predictive factors of neutralizing activity.
- Felix Dewald
- , Martin Pirkl
- & Florian Klein
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning to estimate lung disease mortality from chest radiographs
Risk assessment of lung disease mortality is currently limited. Here, authors show that deep learning can estimate lung disease mortality from a chest x-ray beyond risk factors, which may help to identify individuals at risk in screening and cancer populations.
- Jakob Weiss
- , Vineet K. Raghu
- & Hugo J.W.L. Aerts
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Article
| Open AccessModelling the impact of interventions on imported, introduced and indigenous malaria infections in Zanzibar, Tanzania
Malaria elimination is defined by WHO as the absence of recent indigenous cases in an area. In this study, the authors develop a metapopulation model that identifies indigenous cases and use it to investigate the likelihood of malaria elimination in Zanzibar under different intervention scenarios.
- Aatreyee M. Das
- , Manuel W. Hetzel
- & Nakul Chitnis
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Article
| Open AccessThe impact of introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria
Nigeria has the highest incidence of pneumococcal disease in Africa and introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine for infants between 2014 and 2016. Here, the authors conduct repeated cross-sectional surveys to analyse the impact of the vaccination campaign on pneumococcal carriage and serotype distribution.
- Aishatu L. Adamu
- , J. Ojal
- & Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa
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Article
| Open AccessVirus diversity, wildlife-domestic animal circulation and potential zoonotic viruses of small mammals, pangolins and zoo animals
Monitoring the diversity of viruses infecting animals is important for assessing zoonotic risk. Here, the authors use metatranscriptomics to characterise the viromes of small mammals, pangolins, and zoo animals in China to identify potentially zoonotic viruses.
- Xinyuan Cui
- , Kewei Fan
- & Yongyi Shen
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Article
| Open AccessResurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong
Hong Kong experienced a large wave of COVID-19 in early 2022 driven by Omicron BA.2. Here, the authors describe the epidemiological dynamics of this wave and show discordant inferences based on genomic and epidemiological data that underscore the need to improve near real-time epidemic growth estimates.
- Ruopeng Xie
- , Kimberly M. Edwards
- & Vijaykrishna Dhanasekaran
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Article
| Open AccessMachine learning prediction of the degree of food processing
Evidence suggests that increased consumption of ultra-processed food has adverse health implications, however, it remains difficult to classify processed food. Here, the authors introduce FPro, a machine learning-based score predicting the degree of food processing.
- Giulia Menichetti
- , Babak Ravandi
- & Albert-László Barabási
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Article
| Open AccessHealth disparities among older adults following tropical cyclone exposure in Florida
Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to human health. Here, authors show associations between tropical cyclones and risk of cause-specific hospitalizations, with elevated risks according to neighborhood-level poverty, homeownership and urbanicity.
- K. Burrows
- , G. B. Anderson
- & M. L. Bell
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Article
| Open AccessAccounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S.
SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys aim to estimate the proportion of the population that has been infected, but their accuracy depends on the characteristics of the test assay used. Here, the authors use statistical models to assess the impact of the use of different assays on estimates of seroprevalence in the United States.
- Bernardo García-Carreras
- , Matt D. T. Hitchings
- & Derek A. T. Cummings
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Article
| Open AccessDrivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England
SARS-CoV-2 testing rates have varied during the pandemic but the drivers of changes in testing behaviour are unclear. Here, the authors link national testing data from England to indicators of epidemic trends to describe how testing varies according to level of virus transmission, disease susceptibility/severity, public health measures, and risk perception.
- Younjung Kim
- , Christl A. Donnelly
- & Pierre Nouvellet
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Article
| Open AccessComparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas
The Amazonas region has been the most heavily affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. In this study, the authors conduct phylodynamic analyses to assess SARS-CoV-2 lineage replacement dynamics in the region and infer the impact of population immunity on the spread and severity of the Delta and Omicron variants.
- Ighor Arantes
- , Gonzalo Bello
- & Felipe Gomes Naveca
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Article
| Open AccessEffectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines among older adults in Shanghai: retrospective cohort study
Inactivated COVID-19 vaccines have been widely used in China, but there is limited real-world evidence for their effectiveness in this setting. Here, the authors estimate effectiveness of inactivated vaccines for people aged 60 or older in Shanghai during a period when Omicron was the dominant circulating variant.
- Zhuoying Huang
- , Shuangfei Xu
- & Weibing Wang
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Article
| Open AccessThe evolution and international spread of extensively drug resistant Shigella sonnei
An increase in shigellosis cases among men who have sex with men in the United Kingdom has been linked to an extensively drug-resistant strain of Shigella sonnei. In this genomic epidemiology study, the authors investigate the genetic basis, evolutionary history, and international dissemination of the outbreak strain.
- Lewis C. E. Mason
- , David R. Greig
- & Kate S. Baker
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Article
| Open AccessData-driven analysis to understand long COVID using electronic health records from the RECOVER initiative
In this study, the authors characterise post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) in two large cohorts based on electronic health records from the USA. They identify a broad range of PASC-related conditions which were only partially replicated across the two cohorts, indicating possible heterogeneity between populations.
- Chengxi Zang
- , Yongkang Zhang
- & Rainu Kaushal
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Article
| Open AccessLong-term measles antibody profiles following different vaccine schedules in China, a longitudinal study
The timing of measles vaccination in infants affects the risk of infection in young children and the duration of protection provided. Here, the authors investigate optimal vaccination timing by characterising antibody kinetics following different vaccine schedules in two cohorts of children in southern China.
- Qianli Wang
- , Wei Wang
- & Hongjie Yu
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Article
| Open AccessRisk of death following COVID-19 vaccination or positive SARS-CoV-2 test in young people in England
Rare but serious cardiac disease side effects have been linked to COVID-19 vaccinations, especially in young people. Here, the authors find very little evidence of an association between vaccination and mortality, except for in females after a non mRNA vaccine, but show an increased risk of death following COVID-19 infection
- Vahé Nafilyan
- , Charlotte R. Bermingham
- & James C. Doidge
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Article
| Open AccessThe genomic epidemiology of Escherichia albertii infecting humans and birds in Great Britain
Escherichia albertii is an emerging gastrointestinal pathogen that causes disease in humans and animals, notably birds. In this genomic epidemiology study, the authors investigate characteristics of isolates sampled from humans and birds in Great Britain and find that they tend to cluster separately.
- Rebecca J. Bengtsson
- , Kate S. Baker
- & Becki Lawson
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Article
| Open AccessTransmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics
Accurately estimating the burden of tuberculosis is challenging due to incomplete registration systems and the relationship with HIV. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian modelling strategy accounting for these factors that estimates age- and country-specific annual risks of infection and the proportion resulting from recent infection.
- Peter J. Dodd
- , Debebe Shaweno
- & Helen Ayles
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Article
| Open AccessPredicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis
In this study, the authors perform a meta-analysis of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness studies and compare observed protection against severe disease with model-based estimates of neutralising antibody titres. Their results show that SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres are predictive of protection against severe COVID-19 disease.
- Deborah Cromer
- , Megan Steain
- & Miles P. Davenport
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Article
| Open AccessSpatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs
Efficient spatial targeting of interventions could reduce the spread of infections in transportation hubs. Here, the authors assess the optimal locations to target in Heathrow airport using disease transmission models informed by a contact network based on anonymised location data from 200,000 individuals.
- Mattia Mazzoli
- , Riccardo Gallotti
- & José J. Ramasco
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Article
| Open AccessNon-falciparum malaria infection and IgG seroprevalence among children under 15 years in Nigeria, 2018
Nigeria has a high burden of malaria which mostly results from Plasmodium falciparum infection, but other species are also endemic. Here, the authors estimate the prevalence of active infection and previous exposure to P malariae, P ovale, and P vivax in children in Nigeria in 2018 and determine risk factors.
- Camelia Herman
- , Colleen M. Leonard
- & Eric Rogier
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Article
| Open AccessIndoor air surveillance and factors associated with respiratory pathogen detection in community settings in Belgium
Surveillance of respiratory pathogens in air may improve understanding of indoor transmission risks but impacts of context-specific factors on pathogen abundance are not well understood. Here, the authors investigate factors associated with 29 respiratory pathogens through surveillance of 21 community settings in Belgium.
- Joren Raymenants
- , Caspar Geenen
- & Emmanuel André
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Article
| Open AccessEffectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine booster doses against Omicron severe outcomes
This study investigates the protection provided by mRNA COVID-19 vaccine booster doses against Omicron-associated severe disease in adults aged 50 and older. The authors use data from Ontario, Canada, and find that booster doses provide strong protection but that it declined during the period of BA.4/BA.5 predominance.
- Ramandip Grewal
- , Lena Nguyen
- & Jeffrey C. Kwong
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Article
| Open AccessMaternal SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infant protection against SARS-CoV-2 during the first six months of life
This study investigates the impact of maternal COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy on infant infection during the first six months of life. Using data from California, USA, the authors find that protection against infection during the period of Delta dominance was high, but that it declined during the Omicron period.
- Ousseny Zerbo
- , G. Thomas Ray
- & Nicola P. Klein
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Article
| Open AccessNational surveillance data analysis of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in England by women of reproductive age
Women of reproductive age may have specific concerns relating to perceived impacts on fertility and menstrual cycles that make them hesitant to receive COVID-19 vaccination. In this study, the authors explore COVID-19 vaccine uptake rates in women of reproductive age using linked data for ~13 million women in England.
- Laura A. Magee
- , Erika Molteni
- & Sara White
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Article
| Open AccessAssociations of timing of physical activity with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort study
There is a growing interest in the role of timing of physical activity (PA) in improving health. Here, using a large-scale cohort study, the authors show that moderate-to-vigorous PA at the optimal time of day robustly predicts lower mortality risk and may maximize the beneficial effect of PA.
- Hongliang Feng
- , Lulu Yang
- & Jihui Zhang