Projection and prediction articles within Nature

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of projected sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation show an income reduction of 19% of the world economy within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices.

    • Maximilian Kotz
    • , Anders Levermann
    •  & Leonie Wenz

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Simulations using two state-of-the-art ice-sheet models show that abrupt melting of the Greenland ice sheet following overshooting of the global mean temperature critical threshold can be mitigated by subsequent cooling to below 1.5 °C.

    • Nils Bochow
    • , Anna Poltronieri
    •  & Niklas Boers

  • Article |

    Dipolar precipitation change in High Mountain Asia during summer is primarily driven by weakened westerly jet and decadal variations in the South Asian monsoon, and the dipolar pattern is projected to shift to a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s.

    • Jie Jiang
    • , Tianjun Zhou
    •  & Ziming Chen

  • Article |

    Quantification of climate warming in California using machine learning shows increased daily wildfire growth risk by 25%, with an expected increase of 59% and 172% in 2100, for low- and very-high-emissions scenarios, respectively.

    • Patrick T. Brown
    • , Holt Hanley
    •  & Craig B. Clements

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Deep learning using a convolutional neural network trained with daily precipitation fields and annual global mean surface air temperature data demonstrates that anthropogenically induced climate change has a detectable effect on daily hydrological fluctuations.

    • Yoo-Geun Ham
    • , Jeong-Hwan Kim
    •  & Malte F. Stuecker

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Analysis of climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings shows that the frequency of consecutive La Niña events will increase, driven by ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that slow the heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific.

    • Tao Geng
    • , Fan Jia
    •  & Michael J. McPhaden

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Weakening blocking effect of the High Mountain Asia on the westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation from the southeast North Atlantic is demonstrated, leading to persistent northward expansion of terrestrial water storage deficit in the Tibet Plateau.

    • Qiang Zhang
    • , Zexi Shen
    •  & Gang Wang

  • Article |

    Simulations of historical and future periods of climate change showed that delayed mitigation to limit global warming might reduce the capacity of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and threaten climate stability and food security.

    • Siqing Xu
    • , Rong Wang
    •  & Renhe Zhang

  • Article |

    Sustainable mariculture could increase seafood production under almost all climate-change scenarios analysed, but this would require substantial fisheries reforms, continued advances in feed technology and the establishment of effective mariculture governance and best practices.

    • Christopher M. Free
    • , Reniel B. Cabral
    •  & Steven D. Gaines

  • Article |

    Model simulations show that the historical relationship between global temperature and precipitation under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario lowers the projected high end of future precipitation change.

    • Hideo Shiogama
    • , Masahiro Watanabe
    •  & Nagio Hirota

  • Article |

    Modelling suggests that the Montreal Protocol may be mitigating climate change by protecting the land carbon sink, as well as by protecting the ozone layer and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    • Paul J. Young
    • , Anna B. Harper
    •  & Rolando R. Garcia

  • Review Article |

    Ongoing global warming is likely to cause tipping point thresholds to be passed, but an abrupt system change can still be avoided if the warming is reversed quickly relative to the timescale of the tipping element.

    • Paul D. L. Ritchie
    • , Joseph J. Clarke
    •  & Chris Huntingford

  • Article |

    Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.

    • Julius Garbe
    • , Torsten Albrecht
    •  & Ricarda Winkelmann

  • Article |

    Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.

    • D. M. Smith
    • , A. A. Scaife
    •  & L. Zhang

  • Article |

    Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.

    • Jens Terhaar
    • , Lester Kwiatkowski
    •  & Laurent Bopp

  • Letter |

    Observations and regional climate models show that the increasing coverage of ice slabs on the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a global sea-level rise of up to 74 millimetres by 2100.

    • M. MacFerrin
    • , H. Machguth
    •  & W. Abdalati

  • Article |

    Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as at the beginning of the twentieth century.

    • Kate Marvel
    • , Benjamin I. Cook
    •  & A. Park Williams

  • Article |

    Accounting for meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet in simulations of global climate leads to substantial changes in future climate projections and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.

    • Ben Bronselaer
    • , Michael Winton
    •  & Joellen L. Russell

  • Article |

    Climate model simulations reveal that recent destructive tropical cyclones would have been equally intense in terms of wind speed but would have produced less rainfall if these events had occurred in pre-industrial climates, and in future climates they would have greater wind speeds and rainfall.

    • Christina M. Patricola
    •  & Michael F. Wehner

  • Brief Communications Arising |

    • Peter M. Cox
    • , Mark S. Williamson
    •  & Chris Huntingford

  • Letter |

    Satellite observations and Earth system model simulations reveal that marine heatwaves have increased in recent decades and will increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent.

    • Thomas L. Frölicher
    • , Erich M. Fischer
    •  & Nicolas Gruber

  • Analysis |

    Analysis of 2002–2016 GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage reveals substantial changes in freshwater resources globally, which are driven by natural and anthropogenic climate variability and human activities.

    • M. Rodell
    • , J. S. Famiglietti
    •  & M.-H. Lo

  • Letter |

    Models show that even if global temperature rise can be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, only about 65 per cent of glacier mass will remain in the high mountains of Asia by the end of this century, and if temperatures rise by more than this the effects will be much more extreme.

    • P. D. A. Kraaijenbrink
    • , M. F. P. Bierkens
    •  & W. W. Immerzeel

  • Article |

    Permanently ice-free areas, home to almost all of Antarctica’s biodiversity, are projected, in the worst case, to expand by over 17,000 km2 as a result of climate change by the end of this century, with potentially deleterious consequences for the continent’s biodiversity.

    • Jasmine R. Lee
    • , Ben Raymond
    •  & Aleks Terauds

  • Analysis |

    Apparently contradictory conclusions regarding the ‘global warming hiatus’ are reconciled, strengthening the current scientific understanding that long-term global warming is extremely likely to be of anthropogenic origin.

    • Iselin Medhaug
    • , Martin B. Stolpe
    •  & Reto Knutti

  • Letter |

    Satellite records show that the global pattern of cloud changes between the 1980s and the 2000s are similar to the patterns predicted by models of climate with recent external radiative forcing, and that the primary drivers of the cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling.

    • Joel R. Norris
    • , Robert J. Allen
    •  & Stephen A. Klein

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