Featured
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Article
| Open AccessClimate teleconnections modulate global burned area
Here the authors find that climate teleconnections modulate ~53 % of the global burned area with both synchronous and lagged signals, and marked regional patterns, with the Tropical North Atlantic mode being the most relevant.
- Adrián Cardil
- , Marcos Rodrigues
- & Sergio de-Miguel
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Article
| Open AccessInteraction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework
This study quantifies the scope, time scale, and physical mechanisms underlying the cascade effects of drying on heating and vice versa across the various ecosystems of the world.
- Sourav Mukherjee
- , Ashok Kumar Mishra
- & Dara Entekhabi
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| Open AccessGlobal droughts connected by linkages between drought hubs
This study shows prominent synchronous co-evolution of drought events in drought hubs in sub-tropical regions, influenced by sea surface temperature patterns and teleconnections. Such simultaneous occurrence of droughts may have detrimental impacts.
- Somnath Mondal
- , Ashok K. Mishra
- & Benjamin Cook
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| Open AccessQuantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes
Heat extremes have been growing at staggering rates with global warming. This study shows that temperature variability is key to explaining the highly heterogeneous trajectories of future extremes and their rapid intensification in many regions.
- Claudia Simolo
- & Susanna Corti
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| Open AccessA large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis
Here, the authors use an advanced data-mining method to show how “extreme modes” of large-scale climate variability, such as El Niño, can lead to devastating marine heatwaves.
- Christopher C. Chapman
- , Didier P. Monselesan
- & Bernadette M. Sloyan
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Article
| Open AccessSeismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery
This study presents the first rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system integrating advanced causal inference and remote sensing techniques, which jointly estimates regional-scale and high-resolution maps of seismic multi-hazards and building damage from InSAR imageries.
- Susu Xu
- , Joshua Dimasaka
- & Hae Young Noh
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| Open AccessMagma recharge and mush rejuvenation drive paroxysmal activity at Stromboli volcano
Petrological studies along with volcano monitoring data relate the unusual 2019 explosive activity at Stromboli volcano (Italy) to deep magma recharges up to a few days prior the eruption and a direct link between deep and shallow magma reservoirs.
- Chiara Maria Petrone
- , Silvio Mollo
- & Mark Reagan
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Article
| Open AccessA dimensionless framework for predicting submarine fan morphology
Submarine fans play an important role in routing sediment in continental and deep water settings. Here the authors develop a framework is to explain the shape of submarine fans using a numerical model framework which can either predict seafloor topography from turbidity current flow properties or infer these flow properties from seafloor topography.
- Abdul Wahab
- , David C. Hoyal
- & Kyle M. Straub
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Article
| Open AccessTriggering and recovery of earthquake accelerated landslides in Central Italy revealed by satellite radar observations
This study uses satellite radar observations to investigate the triggering and recovery mechanisms of landslides that are accelerated by earthquakes without immediate failures but showing a prolonged response.
- Chuang Song
- , Chen Yu
- & Jianbing Peng
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Article
| Open AccessIncrease in tropical cyclone rain rate with translation speed
Using satellite observations, the authors show that the average tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate increases significantly with translation speed. On average, the rain rate of a fast-moving TC is about 24% higher than that of a slow one.
- Shifei Tu
- , Johnny C. L. Chan
- & Yu Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessForest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand
Rising forest flammability could become a major public health issue and amplify climate change via feedbacks on the carbon cycle. Here the authors identify daily fuel moisture thresholds associated with increased fire risk in earth’s forests.
- Hamish Clarke
- , Rachael H. Nolan
- & Matthias M. Boer
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Article
| Open AccessSurface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions
The mechanisms responsible for clustering of surface fault earthquakes are often unclear. Here the authors find that differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions which can produce changes in strain-rate and slip-rate changes leading to earthquake clustering.
- Zoë K. Mildon
- , Gerald P. Roberts
- & Eutizio Vittori
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Article
| Open AccessDrivers of recent decline in dust activity over East Asia
Changes in climatic factors mainly drive the decline of East Asian dust activity in the past two decades. The weakening of surface winds plays a dominant role, and the increasing of vegetation cover and soil moisture also has key contribution
- Chenglai Wu
- , Zhaohui Lin
- & Ying Li
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Article
| Open AccessSea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates
Results forecast that cliff retreat rates will increase by up to an order of magnitude by 2100 according to current predictions of sea-level rise, and reveal that even historically stable rock coasts are highly sensitive to sea-level rise.
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Klaus M. Wilcken
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Comment
| Open AccessThe harmful legacy of colonialism in natural hazard risk
The colonial practices of geoscience have created long term vulnerabilities to natural hazards. In this comment the ongoing consequence are explored of colonialism as well as the actions that are needed to be taken to reduce natural hazard risk.
- Jazmin P. Scarlett
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Article
| Open AccessCreep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering
Laboratory earthquake experiments reproduce delayed earthquake triggering, similar to aftershocks, as a result of propagating slow slip fronts. The speed of the fronts can be highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes.
- Sara Beth L. Cebry
- , Chun-Yu Ke
- & Gregory C. McLaskey
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| Open AccessA potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification
This study shows intensification rates of tropical cyclones around the world have significantly increased, and environmental conditions around storms are becoming more favorable. Human-caused climate change is contributing to both trends.
- Kieran Bhatia
- , Alexander Baker
- & Carolyn Whitlock
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Article
| Open AccessSeismic events miss important kinematically governed grain scale mechanisms during shear failure of porous rock
Sound and Vision: In-situ synchrotron x-ray imaging with simultaneous acoustic monitoring captures grain scale damage mechanisms and unlocks the relationship between seismic and aseismic processes during catastrophic failure of porous rock.
- Alexis Cartwright-Taylor
- , Maria-Daphne Mangriotis
- & Oxana V. Magdysyuk
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| Open AccessIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models
Various synthetic tropical cyclone datasets exist for risk assessment purposes. Here, the authors conduct a global dataset comparison to assess their suitability and applicability in answering different impact-related questions.
- Simona Meiler
- , Thomas Vogt
- & David N. Bresch
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Article
| Open AccessHidden pressurized fluids prior to the 2014 phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake
Phreatic volcanic eruptions can be unexpected and devastating. Here the authors, using seismic-based methodologies, find that pressurized fluids accumulated 5 months before the deadly phreatic eruption at Mt Ontake; a period previously considered as completely quiescent.
- Corentin Caudron
- , Yosuke Aoki
- & Toshiko Terakawa
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Article
| Open AccessInversions of landslide strength as a proxy for subsurface weathering
Bedrock weathering is associated with landslides, and also manifests as a change in the strength of subsurface materials. This study analyzes inventoried landslides to explore relationships between strength and landslide depth as a potential reflection of subsurface weathering at large scales.
- Stefano Alberti
- , Ben Leshchinsky
- & Michael J. Olsen
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Article
| Open AccessMachine learning-based tsunami inundation prediction derived from offshore observations
One of the main challenges in the tsunami inundation prediction is related to the real-time computational efforts done under restrictive time constraints. Here the authors show that using machine learning-based model, we can achieve comparable accuracy to the physics-based model with ~99% computational cost reduction.
- Iyan E. Mulia
- , Naonori Ueda
- & Kenji Satake
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| Open AccessClimate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle
Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle. A new study shows that the terrestrial water cycle in Brazil has been mostly drying or accelerating, aligned with changes in rainfall, water use, and forest cover.
- Vinícius B. P. Chagas
- , Pedro L. B. Chaffe
- & Günter Blöschl
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| Open AccessRevealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence
The authors introduce a new perspective to study the spatiotemporal behavior of the magnitude–frequency distribution: spatially isolating seismogenic zones to provide an appropriate scale to resolve the b-value. Among those zones, the b-value behaved remarkably throughout the 2016 central Italy sequence.
- Marcus Herrmann
- , Ester Piegari
- & Warner Marzocchi
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Article
| Open AccessCompound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes
Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes.
- Friedrich A. Burger
- , Jens Terhaar
- & Thomas L. Frölicher
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Article
| Open AccessEarlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans
There is a significant trend in recent decades towards an earlier start to North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Both the first named storm and first U.S. landfall of the year are occurring earlier. This shift is physically linked to warmer western North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in spring.
- Ryan E. Truchelut
- , Philip J. Klotzbach
- & Eric S. Blake
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence for a developing plate boundary in the western Mediterranean
Conventional models propose multiple fault systems across a diffuse deformation zone absorbing plate convergence in the western Mediterranean. Here the authors show new data supporting the active development of a single plate boundary fault system, representing an underappreciated seismic and tsunami hazard.
- Laura Gómez de la Peña
- , César R. Ranero
- & Abdelkarim Yelles-Chaouche
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Article
| Open AccessIn-conduit capture of sub-micron volcanic ash particles via turbophoresis and sintering
Here the authors document evidence of ultrafine ash captured within ash-venting nozzles at Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile). This decouples eruptive processes from the emitted products, as explained by a new model of in-vent ash migration and sticking.
- Jamie I. Farquharson
- , Hugh Tuffen
- & C. Ian Schipper
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate
The study found that long-duration heatwaves are much more likely to follow power-damaging tropical cyclones in the future RCP8.5 climate, with the impact of longer-than-5-day tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard increasing by a factor of 23 over the 21st century.
- Kairui Feng
- , Min Ouyang
- & Ning Lin
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessFire activity as measured by burned area reveals weak effects of ENSO in China
- Víctor Resco de Dios
- , Yinan Yao
- & Matthias M. Boer
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Fire activity as measured by burned area reveals weak effects of ENSO in China
- Qichao Yao
- , Keyan Fang
- & Valerie Trouet
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Article
| Open AccessPorts’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains
A new study presents a new global modeling framework to explore the links between ports, maritime transport and global supply-chains, and identifies critical links and dependencies between 1300 ports and the economies that depend on them.
- J. Verschuur
- , E. E. Koks
- & J. W. Hall
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Article
| Open AccessLongest sediment flows yet measured show how major rivers connect efficiently to deep sea
This paper analyses the longest sediment flows measured in action on Earth. These seabed flows were caused by floods and spring tides, and flushed prodigious sediment and carbon volumes into the deep sea, as they accelerated for a thousand kilometres.
- Peter J. Talling
- , Megan L. Baker
- & Robert J. Hilton
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| Open AccessResponding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent
The 2020 – 2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano transitioned from an effusive to explosive eruption style. Here the authors show that input from multiple monitoring datasets and an evolving conceptual model were key to anticipating and responding to the eruptive transition at the La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent, in a resource-constrained setting.
- E. P. Joseph
- , M. Camejo-Harry
- & R. S. J. Sparks
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Article
| Open AccessDiverse mantle components with invariant oxygen isotopes in the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland
The 2021 eruption in the Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland was the first in 800 years and was supplied by melts from diverse mantle source domains with near-identical oxygen isotope ratios, providing a unique insight into the Icelandic mantle plume.
- I. N. Bindeman
- , F. M. Deegan
- & T. R. Walter
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Comment
| Open AccessGlobal exposure to flood risk and poverty
Flooding is a pervasive natural hazard, with new research demonstrating that more than one in five people around the world live in areas directly exposed to 1-in-100 year flood risk. Exposure to such flood risk is particularly concentrated amongst lower income households worldwide.
- Thomas K. J. McDermott
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Article
| Open AccessThe timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation.
- Yusuke Satoh
- , Kei Yoshimura
- & Taikan Oki
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| Open AccessFlood exposure and poverty in 188 countries
Floods are most devastating for those who can least afford to be hit. Globally, 1.8 billion people face high flood risks; 89% of them live in developing countries; 170 million of them live in extreme poverty making them most vulnerable.
- Jun Rentschler
- , Melda Salhab
- & Bramka Arga Jafino
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Article
| Open AccessTargeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals
Without targeted climate adaptation, impacts of climate change threaten achievement of all 169 SDG targets. Fuldauer et al. provide an actionable framework to assess these impacts and help systematically align national adaptation plans with the SDGs.
- Lena I. Fuldauer
- , Scott Thacker
- & Jim W. Hall
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| Open AccessChallenging the highstand-dormant paradigm for land-detached submarine canyons
Powerful avalanches were recorded for the first time in an underwater canyon that lies 100 s of km from land. This challenges a long-held view and indicates > 1000 similar canyons worldwide actively pump sediment and pollutants into the deep-sea.
- M. S. Heijnen
- , F. Mienis
- & M. A. Clare
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| Open AccessThe cryptic seismic potential of the Pichilemu blind fault in Chile revealed by off-fault geomorphology
Cryptic faults concern earthquake scientists, since they pose a hidden seismic potential which is hard to identify. To address this, the authors here study off-fault deformed geomorphic markers such as marine terraces using high-resolution LiDAR topography, optical dating of sediments and space geodetic observations.
- J. Jara-Muñoz
- , D. Melnick
- & M. R. Strecker
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Article
| Open AccessExploring disaster impacts on adaptation actions in 549 cities worldwide
Here the authors explore the effects of disasters on adaptation actions in 549 cities, finding that the effects of disaster frequency and severity are modest and depend on action type, population size, and adaptive capacity.
- Daniel Nohrstedt
- , Jacob Hileman
- & Charles F. Parker
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Article
| Open AccessAseismic slip and recent ruptures of persistent asperities along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone
Physically plausible interseismic asperity models determined from GPS velocities suggest that the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquakes ruptured distinct persistent asperities on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone
- Bin Zhao
- , Roland Bürgmann
- & Qi Li
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Article
| Open AccessAmplification of downstream flood stage due to damming of fine-grained rivers
Dams constructed on fine-grained rivers cause an increase in flow resistance downstream, thereby amplifying, rather than reducing, flood stage.
- Hongbo Ma
- , Jeffrey A. Nittrouer
- & Baosheng Wu
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Article
| Open AccessRisk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy
The integration of risk analysis and spatial CGE modeling frameworks allowed for measuring the direct and indirect consequences of extreme events via novel probabilistic risk indicators which incorporate elements of uncertainty and systemic effects
- J. A. León
- , M. Ordaz
- & I. F. Araújo
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Article
| Open AccessInflated pyroclasts in proximal fallout deposits reveal abrupt transitions in eruption behaviour
Jones et al. identify a new type of volcanic deposit, inflated pyroclasts, that form by continued gas expansion post-deposition. They show how these deposits can be indicative of abrupt transitions in eruptive behaviour at mafic volcanoes.
- Thomas J. Jones
- , Yannick Le Moigne
- & Donald B. Dingwell
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| Open Access22 years of satellite imagery reveal a major destabilization structure at Piton de la Fournaise
At Piton de la Fournaise volcano, satellite deformation allows to constrain the geometry of 57 magmatic intrusions. Versatile modeling reveals that a major spoon-shaped destabilization structure accommodates intrusions and seaward flank displacement.
- Quentin Dumont
- , Valérie Cayol
- & Aline Peltier
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Comment
| Open AccessCrowd-sourcing observations of volcanic eruptions during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall and Cumbre Vieja events
This study explores the scientific potential of crowdsourced observations during volcanic eruptions, using the 2021 Fagradalsfjall (Iceland) and Cumbre Vieja (Canary Islands) events as case studies.
- Fabian B. Wadsworth
- , Edward W. Llewellin
- & Alejandro Polo Santabárbara
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Article
| Open AccessNew seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires
Growing emissions from Pacific Northwest wildfires have increased atmospheric carbon monoxide in August, raising questions about potential health impacts as the seasonal pattern of air quality changes for large regions of North America.
- Rebecca R. Buchholz
- , Mijeong Park
- & Sheryl Magzamen