Featured
-
-
Article
| Open AccessPatterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations
Inundation and erosion could make many atoll islands uninhabitable over the next century. Here the authors present an analysis of change in the atoll nation of Tuvalu that shows a 2.9% increase in land area over the past four decades, with 74% of islands increasing in size, despite rising sea levels.
- Paul S. Kench
- , Murray R. Ford
- & Susan D. Owen
-
Article
| Open AccessSeabird colonies as important global drivers in the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles
The global impact of seabird populations on nutrient cycles is poorly understood. Here, the authors use a bioenergetic model and a global seabird population inventory to estimate the amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus excreted by seabirds and estimate them to be 591 Gg N y−1 and 99 Gg P y−1 respectively.
- Xosé Luis Otero
- , Saul De La Peña-Lastra
- & Miguel Angel Huerta-Diaz
-
Article
| Open AccessImpact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation
The climate impacts of deforestation due to changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, which act as short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), are poorly understood. Here the authors show that including the impact SLCFs increases the projected warming associated with idealised deforestation scenarios.
- C. E. Scott
- , S. A. Monks
- & C. Wilson
-
Article
| Open AccessAn assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion
Human activity and related land use change are the primary cause of soil erosion. Here, the authors show the impacts of 21st century global land use change on soil erosion based on an unprecedentedly high resolution global model that provides insights into the mitigating effects of conservation agriculture.
- Pasquale Borrelli
- , David A. Robinson
- & Panos Panagos
-
Article
| Open AccessThe role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency
The reason for the decline in frequency of Atlantic major hurricanes since 2005 is still debated. Here the authors combine observations with model simulations to show that this decline is largely due to changes in the Atlantic ocean meridional overturning circulation.
- Xiaoqin Yan
- , Rong Zhang
- & Thomas R. Knutson
-
Article
| Open AccessStrategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture
Organic agriculture requires fewer inputs but produces lower yields than conventional farming. Here, via a modeling approach, Muller et al. predict that if food waste and meat consumption are reduced, organic agriculture could feed the world without requiring cropland expansion.
- Adrian Muller
- , Christian Schader
- & Urs Niggli
-
Article
| Open AccessPolymorphic regenerated silk fibers assembled through bioinspired spinning
Natural silk fibers are produced using a simple and green approach compared to alternative synthetic methods. Here, the authors show a bioinspired approach to spin regenerated silk fibers using anisotropic liquid crystals and dry spinning, resulting in remarkably robust fibers.
- Shengjie Ling
- , Zhao Qin
- & Markus J. Buehler
-
Article
| Open AccessTiming anthropogenic stressors to mitigate their impact on marine ecosystem resilience
Stressors such as sediment dredging can harm marine organisms, but this impact could be minimised if targeted within ‘ecological windows’. Here, Wu and colleagues develop a modelling framework to identify ecological windows that maximise seagrass resilience under varying dredging schedules.
- Paul Pao-Yen Wu
- , Kerrie Mengersen
- & M. Julian Caley
-
Article
| Open AccessContribution of livestock H2S to total sulfur emissions in a region with intensive animal production
Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from agricultural sources is generally omitted from sulfur emission estimates despite its abundance in livestock emissions. Here, the authors show that agriculture is the most important source of sulfur in Denmark using proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry measurements of H2S.
- Anders Feilberg
- , Michael Jørgen Hansen
- & Tavs Nyord
-
Article
| Open AccessThe impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes
Land use and land cover change has led to more frequent hot, dry summers in parts of the mid-latitudes. Here the authors use an Earth system model to show that regions converted to crops and pastures experience hot, dry summers 2 to 4 times more frequently than they would if native forests had remained.
- Kirsten L. Findell
- , Alexis Berg
- & Elena Shevliakova
-
Article
| Open AccessOrganic coating on biochar explains its nutrient retention and stimulation of soil fertility
Biochar promotes plant growth via a slow release of nutrients; however, a mechanistic understanding of nutrient storage in biochar is lacking. Here, using high-resolution spectromicroscopy and mass spectrometry, the authors identify an organic coating on co-composted particles that enhances nutrient retention.
- Nikolas Hagemann
- , Stephen Joseph
- & Andreas Kappler
-
Article
| Open AccessMining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Industrial mining contributes to deforestation in the Amazon, and the extent of effect could occur beyond areas of land explicitly permitted for mining. Here, Sonter et al. show that deforestation in 70-km buffer zones around mines has led to an estimated 9% of Brazilian Amazon deforestation since 2005.
- Laura J. Sonter
- , Diego Herrera
- & Britaldo S. Soares-Filho
-
Article
| Open AccessUpstream watershed condition predicts rural children’s health across 35 developing countries
Globally diarrheal disease through contaminated water sources is a major cause of child mortality. Here, the authors compile a database of 293,362 children in 35 countries and find that upstream tree cover is linked to a lower probability of diarrheal disease and that increasing tree cover may lower mortality.
- Diego Herrera
- , Alicia Ellis
- & Taylor H. Ricketts
-
Article
| Open AccessTrade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China
International and domestic interprovincial trade of China are entangled, but their health impacts have been treated separately in earlier studies. Here Wang. quantify the complex impacts of trade on public health across China within an integrative framework.
- Haikun Wang
- , Yanxu Zhang
- & Michael B. McElroy
-
Article
| Open AccessStatistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100
Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.
- Juha Aalto
- , Stephan Harrison
- & Miska Luoto
-
Article
| Open AccessAgricultural pesticide use and adverse birth outcomes in the San Joaquin Valley of California
The health consequences of exposure to pesticides are uncertain and subject to much debate. Here, the effect of exposure during pregnancy is investigated in an agriculturally dominated residential area, showing that an increase in adverse birth outcomes is observed with very high levels of pesticide exposure.
- Ashley E. Larsen
- , Steven D. Gaines
- & Olivier Deschênes
-
Article
| Open AccessDiscovery and ramifications of incidental Magnéli phase generation and release from industrial coal-burning
Solid-state emissions from coal burning remain an environmental concern. Here, the authors have found that TiO2 minerals present in coal are converted into titanium suboxides during burning, and initial biotoxicity screening suggests that further testing is needed to look into human lung consequences.
- Yi Yang
- , Bo Chen
- & Michael F. Hochella Jr.
-
Article
| Open AccessReduced ultrafine particle levels in São Paulo’s atmosphere during shifts from gasoline to ethanol use
The biofuel ethanol has been introduced into urban transportation in many countries. Here, by measuring aerosols in São Paulo, the authors find that high ethanol prices coincided with an increase in harmful nanoparticles by a third, as drivers switched from ethanol to cheaper gasoline, showing a benefit of ethanol.
- Alberto Salvo
- , Joel Brito
- & Franz M. Geiger
-
Article
| Open AccessRegulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change
Global warming and hydropower regulations are major threats to future fresh-water availability and biodiversity. Here, the authors show that their impact on flow regime over a large landmass result in similar changes, but hydropower is more critical locally and may have potential for climate adaptation in floodplains.
- B. Arheimer
- , C. Donnelly
- & G. Lindström
-
Article
| Open AccessIron-mediated soil carbon response to water-table decline in an alpine wetland
The response of soil organic carbon in wetlands to water-table decline remains uncertain. Here, the authors examine the role of iron in mediating soil enzyme activity and lignin stabilization and find that iron protecting lignin phenols in soils exposed to air acts as an iron gate against the enzyme latch.
- Yiyun Wang
- , Hao Wang
- & Xiaojuan Feng
-
Article
| Open AccessCurrent rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
The rate of subsea permafrost degradation is a key factor controlling marine methane emissions in the Arctic. Here, using re-drilled boreholes, the authors show that the ice-bonded permafrost table in the near-shore East Siberian Arctic Shelf has deepened by ∼14 cm per year over the past 31–32 years.
- Natalia Shakhova
- , Igor Semiletov
- & Denis Chernykh
-
Article
| Open AccessWater scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century
Water scarcity threatens a growing number of global catchments. Here, the authors examine how human interventions (HI) affected water scarcity between 1971 and 2010 and find that HI caused increases in the average duration and occurrence of water scarcity for 32% and 34% of the global population, respectively.
- T.I.E. Veldkamp
- , Y. Wada
- & P. J. Ward
-
Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior
The impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes’ ecosystems compared to historical records are unclear. Here, using paleolimnological evidence, the authors show that Lake Superior experienced a slow increase in productivity throughout the Holocene, but that this rate has increased in the last century.
- M. D. O’Beirne
- , J. P. Werne
- & E. D. Reavie
-
Article
| Open AccessSeepage from an arctic shallow marine gas hydrate reservoir is insensitive to momentary ocean warming
The degree to which warming bottom waters will destabilize shallow gas hydrate reservoirs in the Arctic remains unclear. Here, Honget al. observe and model porewater profiles from a gas-hydrate-bearing system south of Spitsbergen, and conclude episodic emissions are not warming induced.
- Wei-Li Hong
- , Marta E. Torres
- & Pavel Serov
-
Article
| Open AccessRiver plastic emissions to the world’s oceans
Rivers provide a major pathway for ocean plastic waste, but effective mitigation is dependent on a quantification of active sources. Here, the authors present a global model of riverine plastic inputs, and estimate annual plastic waste of almost 2.5 million tonnes, with 86% sourced from Asia.
- Laurent C. M. Lebreton
- , Joost van der Zwet
- & Julia Reisser
-
Article
| Open AccessAmazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact
Deforestation and edge effects around cleared areas impact forest stability. Here, the authors examine human impacts on Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and show that tree cover bimodality is enhanced in regions close to human activities and is nearly absent in regions unaffected by human activities.
- Bert Wuyts
- , Alan R. Champneys
- & Joanna I. House
-
Article
| Open AccessGlobal perturbation of organic carbon cycling by river damming
The damming of rivers has large impacts on the balance of riverine carbon (C) processes and fluxes to the oceans. Here, the authors use decadal riverine organic C loads and model C transformations to quantify in-reservoir organic C burial, mineralization and assess decreases in riverine exports to the oceans.
- Taylor Maavara
- , Ronny Lauerwald
- & Philippe Van Cappellen
-
Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic iron oxide aerosols enhance atmospheric heating
Iron oxide nanoparticles contribute to shortwave absorption in the form of desert dust. Motekiet al. show that iron oxide particles of anthropogenic origin, potentially from motor vehicles and blast furnaces, also contribute to atmospheric heating over East Asia.
- Nobuhiro Moteki
- , Kouji Adachi
- & Yutaka Kondo
-
Article
| Open AccessActively evolving subglacial conduits and eskers initiate ice shelf channels at an Antarctic grounding line
The formation mechanisms of ice-shelf channels remain poorly understood. Here, using ice-penetrating radar data, the authors propose that ice-shelf channel morphology in the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, is seeded by esker ridges, indenting the ice from below.
- R. Drews
- , F. Pattyn
- & N. Neckel
-
Article
| Open AccessLife cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services
Life cycle assessments are used by corporations to determine the sustainability of raw source materials. Here, Chaplin-Krameret al. develop an improved life cycle assessment approach incorporating spatial variation in land-use change, and apply this framework to a bioplastic case study.
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- , Sarah Sim
- & Gretchen Daily
-
Article
| Open AccessPathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks
COP21 led to a global commitment to decarbonization before 2100 to combat climate change, but leaves the timing and scale of mitigation efforts to individual countries. Here, the authors show that global carbon emissions need to peak within a decade to maintain realistic pathways for achieving the Paris Agreement.
- Brian Walsh
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Michael Obersteiner
-
Article
| Open AccessPast penguin colony responses to explosive volcanism on the Antarctic Peninsula
Changes in penguin populations on the Antarctic Peninsula in recent decades have been linked to environmental factors such as sea ice. Here, the authors show that penguin colony change on Ardley Island, NW Antarctic Peninsula during the last 8,500 years was primarily driven by volcanic activity.
- Stephen J. Roberts
- , Patrick Monien
- & Dominic A. Hodgson
-
Article
| Open AccessLong-term trends in the intensity and relative toxicity of herbicide use
Quantifying the toxicity of herbicides applied in the field is difficult. Here, the author applies a quotient to evaluate changes in relative toxicity over the past 25 years and finds that increased herbicide use does not necessarily constitute increased toxicity.
- Andrew R. Kniss
-
Article
| Open AccessVulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise
Coastal Louisiana wetlands face some of the world’s highest rates of relative sea-level rise and loss. Here, the authors show that there is a strong regional component to coastal Louisiana wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise as well as contributing to the understanding of subsidence in the region.
- Krista L. Jankowski
- , Torbjörn E Törnqvist
- & Anjali M Fernandes
-
Article
| Open AccessMismatch between marine plankton range movements and the velocity of climate change
Marine plankton are the basis of the oceanic food chain. Here, Chivers and colleagues use ocean-basin wide plankton population data over six decades to show huge differences in the response of different plankton groups to climate change with major implications for the marine ecosystem and fisheries.
- William J. Chivers
- , Anthony W. Walne
- & Graeme C. Hays
-
Article
| Open AccessProton pumping accompanies calcification in foraminifera
Despite their role in oceanic CaCO3production, the physiological processes responsible for calcification in foraminifera are poorly understood Here, the authors show that calcification is driven by rapid transformation of bicarbonate to carbonate inside the cytoplasm, achieved by active outward proton pumping.
- Takashi Toyofuku
- , Miki Y. Matsuo
- & Hiroshi Kitazato
-
Article
| Open AccessObservational evidence for cloud cover enhancement over western European forests
Forests impact continental-scale moisture recycling, but their impact on regional-scale cloud cover is little known. Here, using satellite observations, Teulinget al. illustrate enhanced cloud cover over regional forested areas in western Europe due to the establishment of a forest-breeze circulation.
- Adriaan J. Teuling
- , Christopher M. Taylor
- & Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano
-
Article
| Open AccessSecondary migration and leakage of methane from a major tight-gas system
As shale and tight gas basins are increasingly used to extract natural gas, understanding how gas migrates is important. Wood and Sanei find that secondary migration in a tight-gas basin leads to up-dip transmission of enriched methane into surficial strata which may leak into groundwater and the atmosphere.
- James M. Wood
- & Hamed Sanei
-
Article
| Open AccessA pulse of mid-Pleistocene rift volcanism in Ethiopia at the dawn of modern humans
Past volcanic eruptions along the densely populated Ethiopian Rift valley remain poorly constrained despite the present day hazard. Hutchison et al. show that a large volcanic flare up along a 200 km section of the rift occurred between 320–170 ka dramatically affecting the landscape and hominin population.
- William Hutchison
- , Raffaella Fusillo
- & Andrew T. Calvert
-
Article
| Open AccessMassive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects
Invasive insects impose many economic costs, for example by consuming crops and spreading disease. Here, Bradshaw et al. compile a database of the costs of invasive insects and conservatively estimate that the yearly global cost (in 2014-equivalent US dollars) is at least $70 billion for goods and services and $6.9 billion for human health.
- Corey J. A. Bradshaw
- , Boris Leroy
- & Franck Courchamp
-
Article
| Open AccessMegacity pumping and preferential flow threaten groundwater quality
Megacities rely on groundwater from aquifers that may be over-exploited and be at risk of contamination. Khan et al. evaluate the complex aquifers supplying Dhaka, Bangladesh and show that extensive groundwater pumping could lead to unpredictable future arsenic contamination in deep aquifers outside the city.
- Mahfuzur R. Khan
- , Mohammad Koneshloo
- & Holly A. Michael
-
Article
| Open AccessClimate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change
Simulations of the impact of future climate change on crop yield vary considerably. Here, the authors use a climate analogue approach to estimate the response of maximum attainable yield to climate change and predict that large shifts in land use and crop choice would be required to meet demand.
- T.A.M. Pugh
- , C. Müller
- & A. Arneth
-
Article
| Open AccessThe sources of atmospheric black carbon at a European gateway to the Arctic
Black carbon (BC) contributes positively to the radiation budget, yet models are unable to correctly capture its seasonal variability in the Arctic. Here, the authors demonstrate improved model skill in simulating BC concentration and sources when including estimates of BC emissions from fires.
- P Winiger
- , A Andersson
- & Ö. Gustafsson
-
Article
| Open AccessWildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size
Protected areas are intended to safeguard wildlife, but their effectiveness has at times been questioned. Barnes, Craigie, and colleagues show that protected areas do offer refuge—maintaining their bird and mammal abundances—but with greater success for larger-bodied species and in more developed nations.
- Megan D. Barnes
- , Ian D. Craigie
- & Stephen Woodley
-
Article
| Open AccessIntertidal resource use over millennia enhances forest productivity
Human settlements are often associated with degraded landscapes. Trant and colleagues now show that near-shore settlements in British Columbia have locally enhanced forest productivity over millennia by enriching soils with calcium and phosphorous derived from shellfish remnants.
- Andrew J. Trant
- , Wiebe Nijland
- & Brian M. Starzomski
-
Article
| Open AccessSixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation
Habitat loss and urbanization are primary components of human impact on the environment. Here, Venter et al.use global data on infrastructure, agriculture, and urbanization to show that the human footprint is growing slower than the human population, but footprints are increasing in biodiverse regions.
- Oscar Venter
- , Eric W. Sanderson
- & James E. M. Watson