Economics articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Thurner and colleagues explore how economic shocks spread risk through the globalized economy. They find that rich countries expose poor countries stronger to systemic risk than vice-versa. The risk is highly concentrated, however higher risk levels are not compensated with a risk premium in GDP levels, nor higher GDP growth. The findings put the often-praised benefits for developing countries from globalized production in a new light, by relating them to risks involved in the production processes

    • Abhijit Chakraborty
    • , Tobias Reisch
    •  & Stefan Thurner

  • Article
    | Open Access

    People have different latencies in processing amount and time attributes when making intertemporal choices. Here, the authors test the causal effect of these latencies on choice by altering the onset of amount and time information, which alters people’s patience.

    • Fadong Chen
    • , Jiehui Zheng
    •  & Ian Krajbich

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A personalized letter from the Medical Examiner-Coroner in Los Angeles County has proven effective at reducing opioid and benzodiazepine prescribing. Here the authors show that the introduction of if/when-then planning prompts in to the letter further reduced opioid prescribing by 12.85% and benzodiazepine prescribing by 8.32%; they were most effective for clinicians with multiple patient deaths due to accidental opioid-related overdose.

    • Jason N. Doctor
    • , Marcella A. Kelley
    •  & Emily P. Stewart

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Using historical data across the U.S., the authors find that population declines are associated with flood exposure. Projecting this relationship to 2053, the authors find that flood risk may result in 7% lower growth than otherwise expected.

    • Evelyn G. Shu
    • , Jeremy R. Porter
    •  & Edward Kearns

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Here the authors find economic damage from El Niño far greater than benefits from La Niña on the global economy, leading to an increased economic loss as ENSO variability intensifies under greenhouse warming.

    • Yi Liu
    • , Wenju Cai
    •  & Ying Zhang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The 21st Century has witnessed a series of global food crises, though little is known about how rising food prices affect child nutrition. The authors show that increases in the real price of food elevate the risk of a child being wasted, which in turn poses a serious risk for their survival.

    • Derek Headey
    •  & Marie Ruel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Understanding the causal impact that risk factors have on healthcare cost is critical to evaluate healthcare interventions. Here, authors show that waist circumference, body mass index, and blood pressure have robust causal impact on healthcare cost.

    • Jiwoo Lee
    • , Sakari Jukarainen
    •  & Andrea Ganna

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Open science practices are becoming more common in the social sciences, but there is limited data on their popularity and prevalence. Here, using survey data, the authors provide evidence that levels of adoption are relatively high and underestimated by many in the field.

    • Joel Ferguson
    • , Rebecca Littman
    •  & John-Henry Pezzuto

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Measurement error in polygenic indices attenuates their power to predict complex traits. Here, the authors compare two approaches addressing this attenuation bias and provide guidance on which approach to apply in various scenarios.

    • Hans van Kippersluis
    • , Pietro Biroli
    •  & Cornelius A. Rietveld

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A more equitable global distribution of vaccines can benefit the world, while a multilateral benefit-sharing instrument needs to be developed to remove some of the disincentives for early equitable vaccines distribution globally.

    • Daoping Wang
    • , Ottar N. Bjørnstad
    •  & Nils C. Stenseth

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors show that accurate information about descriptive norms can increase intentions to accept a vaccine for COVID-19. They show that these effects are largely consistent in the 23 included countries and are concentrated among people who were otherwise uncertain about accepting a vaccine.

    • Alex Moehring
    • , Avinash Collis
    •  & Dean Eckles

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Systemic risk and bank bailout approaches have been the source of discussions on scientific, financial and governmental forums. An artificial intelligence technique is proposed to inform equitable bailout decisions that minimise taxpayers’ losses.

    • Daniele Petrone
    • , Neofytos Rodosthenous
    •  & Vito Latora

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Early forecasts give people in a storm’s path time to prepare, but less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, the authors examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes.

    • Jacob Hochard
    • , Yuanhao Li
    •  & Nino Abashidze

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Little is known about the dynamics of human cooperation in groups with changing compositions. Using data from a large-scale and long-term online public goods game, this study shows how group changes are associated with temporarily lower cooperation.

    • Kasper Otten
    • , Ulrich J. Frey
    •  & Naomi Ellemers

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This research quantifies the role of zero deforestation policies and potential leakages in Brazilian soybean production, the third major driver of deforestation globally. Here the authors provide the first estimates of net global avoided soy-driven deforestation from zero-deforestation import restrictions and find that such restrictions could help avoid ~40% of deforestation for soy cultivation in Brazil and ~2% of global deforestation.

    • Nelson Villoria
    • , Rachael Garrett
    •  & Kimberly Carlson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Selecting economic policies to achieve sustainable development is challenging due to the many sectors involved and the trade-offs implied. Artificial intelligence combined with economy-wide computer simulations can help.

    • Mohammed Basheer
    • , Victor Nechifor
    •  & Julien J. Harou

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many countries introduced COVID certificates that were required to access public venues. Here, the authors analyse data from France, Germany, and Italy, and estimate that these policies led to increased vaccine uptake of 6-13 percentage points with subsequent beneficial impacts on health and economic outcomes.

    • Miquel Oliu-Barton
    • , Bary S. R. Pradelski
    •  & Guntram B. Wolff

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The integration of risk analysis and spatial CGE modeling frameworks allowed for measuring the direct and indirect consequences of extreme events via novel probabilistic risk indicators which incorporate elements of uncertainty and systemic effects

    • J. A. León
    • , M. Ordaz
    •  & I. F. Araújo

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    Economic evaluations of public health interventions to prevent malaria should consider the adoption of wider perspectives and the inclusion of non-health impacts, particularly economic development outcomes, such as education. This is especially relevant in malaria elimination settings and in the context of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

    • Elisa Sicuri
    • , Francesco Ramponi
    •  & Francisco Saúte

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Economic shocks may lead to food insecurity and therefore acute child malnutrition (wasting). Here, the authors use data from Demographic Health Surveys to estimate impacts of past economic shocks on wasting and project possible effects of shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    • Derek D. Headey
    •  & Marie T. Ruel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Uncertainty is a factor in most decisions. Here the authors quantify tolerance for two forms of economic uncertainty—risk and ambiguity—and show that greater lifetime stressor exposure (as assessed by a comprehensive lifetime stressor exposure inventory) was associated with higher aversion to decisions involving ambiguity, but not risk.

    • Candace M. Raio
    • , Benjamin B. Lu
    •  & Paul Glimcher

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis has been targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. Here, the authors assess the cost-effectiveness of elimination strategies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and find that those which lead to elimination of transmission might also be considered cost-effective by conventional thresholds.

    • Marina Antillon
    • , Ching-I Huang
    •  & Fabrizio Tediosi

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine has shown 50% efficacy in preventing pulmonary TB disease in infected 18–50 year olds. Here, the authors demonstrate that, in most scenarios modelled, vaccination of adolescents would also be cost effective in two high incidence settings, South Africa and India.

    • Rebecca C. Harris
    • , Matthew Quaife
    •  & Richard G. White

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dynamical development process of various social network platforms shows emergence and transformation of user communities. The authors model social network formation processes considering the meritocratic perspective, where users make their decisions based on the user-generated content.

    • Nicolò Pagan
    • , Wenjun Mei
    •  & Florian Dörfler

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Parents’ investments in their children are a critical input in the production of early skills, yet those investments differ across socioeconomic backgrounds. Here the authors show that variations in parental beliefs about the impact of such investments can be one of the sources of investment disparities, and report interventions that can potentially shift those beliefs.

    • John A. List
    • , Julie Pernaudet
    •  & Dana L. Suskind

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Integrating river system and economy-wide models in a dynamic, iterative, bidirectional fashion allows assessing some economic impacts of interventions in river systems. Here the authors use this framework to compare water resources management strategies for the Nile in a quest for efficient use of the river’s limited and stressed water resources.

    • Mohammed Basheer
    • , Victor Nechifor
    •  & Julien J. Harou

  • Article
    | Open Access

    India’s national school feeding program is the largest of its kind in the world, but the long-term program benefits on nutrition are unknown. Here, the authors show intergenerational program benefits, in that women who received free meals in primary school have children with improved linear growth.

    • Suman Chakrabarti
    • , Samuel P. Scott
    •  & Daniel O. Gilligan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate change is likely to damage economies worldwide. Here the authors show that this strongly reduces incentives to invest causing additional losses, whereas if investors include climate-change mitigation in their action portfolio they can avoid damages for themselves and the global economy.

    • Sven N. Willner
    • , Nicole Glanemann
    •  & Anders Levermann

  • Article
    | Open Access

    China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.

    • Xiaofan Xing
    • , Rong Wang
    •  & Siqing Xu

  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is expected that tropical deforestation and related increases in heat exposure have negative impacts on labour productivity, but the size of the effect is not well known. Here, the authors show that deforestation reduces productivity by 8.22% in rural Indonesia and causes behavioural adaptation responses like more work breaks.

    • Yuta J. Masuda
    • , Teevrat Garg
    •  & June T. Spector

  • Article
    | Open Access

    As countries experience economic growth, diversification of economic activities may occur. Here, the authors develop a probabilistic model to examine the diversification of economic activities and how countries may move from small ecosystem products to advanced product clusters over time.

    • Neave O’Clery
    • , Muhammed Ali Yıldırım
    •  & Ricardo Hausmann

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Not much is known about the joint relationships between social network structure, urban geography, and inequality. Here, the authors analyze an online social network and find that the fragmentation of social networks is significantly higher in towns in which residential neighborhoods are divided by physical barriers such as rivers and railroads.

    • Gergő Tóth
    • , Johannes Wachs
    •  & Balázs Lengyel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions not only amplify the global climate crisis, but cause damage currently unaccounted for by food prices. Here the authors show the calculation of prices with internalized climate costs for food categories and production systems, revealing strong market distortions.

    • Maximilian Pieper
    • , Amelie Michalke
    •  & Tobias Gaugler

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Current inequality and market consumption modelling appears to be subjective. Here the authors combined all three axes of poverty modelling - Engel-Krishnakumar’s microeconomics, Aoki-Chattopadhyay’s mathematical precept and found that multivariate construction is a key component of economic data analysis, implying all modes of income and expenditure need to be considered to arrive at a proper weighted prediction of poverty.

    • Amit K. Chattopadhyay
    • , T. Krishna Kumar
    •  & Iain Rice

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Previous research on the importance of prosociality is based on observations from WEIRD societies, questioning the generalizability of these findings. Here the authors present a global investigation of the relation between prosociality and labor market success and generalize the positive relation to a wide geographical context.

    • Fabian Kosse
    •  & Michela M. Tincani

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Cooperation among humans is threatened by the free-rider problem. Here the authors identify another challenge to human cooperation: self-reliance, the ability to solve shared problems individually. The experiment reveals that self-reliance crowds out cooperation and increases wealth inequality.

    • Jörg Gross
    • , Sonja Veistola
    •  & Eric Van Dijk

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dynamic pricing schemes are increasingly employed in on-demand mobility. Here the authors show that ride-hailing services across the globe exhibit anomalous price surges induced by collective action of drivers, uncovered from price time-series at 137 locations, and explain under which conditions they emerge.

    • Malte Schröder
    • , David-Maximilian Storch
    •  & Marc Timme

  • Review Article
    | Open Access

    Accounting guidelines exist for carbon flows in terrestrial and coastal ecosystems, but not shelf sea sediments. In this Review, the authors explore whether effective management of carbon stocks accumulating in shelf seas could contribute to a nation’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

    • Tiziana Luisetti
    • , Silvia Ferrini
    •  & Emmanouil Tyllianakis

  • Perspective
    | Open Access

    Current environmental impact mitigation neglects over-consumption from affluent citizens as a primary driver. The authors highlight the role of bottom-up movements to overcome structural economic growth imperatives spurring consumption by changing structures and culture towards safe and just systems.

    • Thomas Wiedmann
    • , Manfred Lenzen
    •  & Julia K. Steinberger

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