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| Open AccessMisconceptions about weather and seasonality must not misguide COVID-19 response
Weather may marginally affect COVID-19 dynamics, but misconceptions about the way that climate and weather drive exposure and transmission have adversely shaped risk perceptions for both policymakers and citizens. Future scientific work on this politically-fraught topic needs a more careful approach.
- Colin J. Carlson
- , Ana C. R. Gomez
- & Sadie J. Ryan
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| Open AccessPredicting the global mammalian viral sharing network using phylogeography
Prior studies have investigated macroecological patterns of host sharing among viruses, although certain mammal clades have not been represented in these analyses, and the findings have not been used to predict the true network. Here the authors model the species level traits that predict viral sharing across all mammal clades and validate their predictions using an independent dataset.
- Gregory F. Albery
- , Evan A. Eskew
- & Kevin J. Olival
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| Open AccessGlobal consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk
Because many primary commodities cause deforestation and deforestation can increase malaria transmission, international trade can thus indirectly influence malaria risk. Here the authors use trade databases for commodites associated with deforestation to demonstrate that consumption of such commodities in developed nations could increase malaria risk in developing nations.
- Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves
- , Jacob Fry
- & Manfred Lenzen
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| Open AccessEvolutionary selection of biofilm-mediated extended phenotypes in Yersinia pestis in response to a fluctuating environment
Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, can change its biofilm production to influence the dynamics of flea-borne transmission. Here, the authors sequence Y. pestis isolates sampled over 40 years in China and show evidence for climate-associated selection on rpoZ to increase biofilm production.
- Yujun Cui
- , Boris V. Schmid
- & Ruifu Yang
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| Open AccessImpacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission
Dengue and Zika virus are related flaviviruses, and introduction of Zika in the Americas may have impacted dengue epidemiology. Here, Borchering et al. show that dengue incidence was unusually low in 2017 in Brazil and Colombia, and simulations incorporating immune-mediated interactions predict reductions in dengue following Zika outbreaks with subsequent rebounds.
- Rebecca K. Borchering
- , Angkana T. Huang
- & Derek A. T. Cummings
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| Open AccessEpidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates
Climate affects dynamics of infectious diseases, but the impact on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemiology isn’t well understood. Here, Baker et al. model the influence of temperature, humidity and rainfall on RSV epidemiology in the USA and Mexico and predict impact of climate change on RSV dynamics.
- Rachel E. Baker
- , Ayesha S. Mahmud
- & Bryan T. Grenfell
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| Open AccessMeasuring the shape of the biodiversity-disease relationship across systems reveals new findings and key gaps
Understanding the relationship between biodiversity and infectious disease is important for predicting the effects of biodiversity loss. Here, the authors analyze 205 published biodiversity–disease relationships and show that these tend to be nonlinear and might depend on spatial scale.
- Fletcher W. Halliday
- & Jason R. Rohr
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| Open AccessDisease transmission and introgression can explain the long-lasting contact zone of modern humans and Neanderthals
Modern humans and Neanderthals coexisted in the Levant for tens of thousands of years before modern humans spread and replaced Neanderthals. Here, Greenbaum et al. develop a model showing that transmission of disease and genes can explain the maintenance and then collapse of this contact zone.
- Gili Greenbaum
- , Wayne M. Getz
- & Oren Kolodny
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| Open AccessImpacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa
The capacity to predict zoonotic disease outbreaks is hampered by data availability and complex relationships between humans, wildlife, and the environment. Here the authors present a modelling framework that identifies potential high-risk locations for Ebola outbreaks under various climatic, demographic, and land use scenarios.
- David W. Redding
- , Peter M. Atkinson
- & Kate E. Jones
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Article
| Open AccessAgricultural land-uses consistently exacerbate infectious disease risks in Southeast Asia
Here, Shah et al. perform a meta-analysis and show that people who live or work in agricultural land in Southeast Asia are on average 1.7 times more likely to be infected with a pathogen than controls, suggesting that agricultural land-use increases infectious disease risk.
- Hiral A. Shah
- , Paul Huxley
- & Kris A. Murray
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| Open AccessMeiotic sex in Chagas disease parasite Trypanosoma cruzi
Here, Llewellyn and colleagues present evidence of meiotic sex in Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease. These findings have implications for the epidemiology of the disease in endemic regions and challenge existing ideas that the parasites are strictly clonal.
- Philipp Schwabl
- , Hideo Imamura
- & Martin S. Llewellyn
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| Open AccessInter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
Directly measuring the size of the susceptible population is usually unfeasible before dengue outbreaks. Here, the authors show that the stability of low-incidence periods provides a proxy measure, which can be estimated from incidence data, and show its utility for forecasting outbreaks.
- Martin Rypdal
- & George Sugihara
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| Open AccessGlobal monitoring of antimicrobial resistance based on metagenomics analyses of urban sewage
Obtaining data on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from healthy human populations is difficult. Here, Hendriksen et al. use metagenomic analysis to obtain AMR data from untreated sewage from 79 sites in 60 countries, finding correlations with socio-economic, health and environmental factors.
- Rene S. Hendriksen
- , Patrick Munk
- & Frank M. Aarestrup
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| Open AccessPredicting wildlife reservoirs and global vulnerability to zoonotic Flaviviruses
Flaviviruses have emerged or re-emerged in several regions, but factors underlying emergence are incompletely understood. Here, Pandit et al. identify potential sylvatic reservoirs of flaviviruses and, in combination with vector distribution data, predict regions of global vulnerability.
- Pranav S. Pandit
- , Megan M. Doyle
- & Christine K. Johnson
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| Open AccessSocial environment mediates cancer progression in Drosophila
There is some evidence that social context can mediate the progression of cancers. Here, the authors show that Drosophila flies housed in social isolation experienced faster cancer tumor progression than flies in groups, and that flies select for social environments that minimize cancer risk.
- Erika H. Dawson
- , Tiphaine P. M. Bailly
- & Frederic Mery
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| Open AccessAbrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis
The disease dynamics of bovine tuberculosis have been of interest given the pathogen’s effect on wild animal and livestock health. Here, the authors show that a brief cessation of testing for bovine tuberculosis in 2001 altered the population synchrony of the disease dynamics across regions of Great Britain.
- Aristides Moustakas
- , Matthew R. Evans
- & Yannis Markonis
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| Open AccessNetworks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum
Plasmodium has evolved high genetic diversity in var genes, which encode for the major blood-stage antigen. Here, He et al. show how immune selection shapes the var gene repertoire in both simulated systems and a population in Ghana, by using neutral models and genetic similarity networks.
- Qixin He
- , Shai Pilosof
- & Mercedes Pascual
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| Open AccessVariation in Wolbachia effects on Aedes mosquitoes as a determinant of invasiveness and vectorial capacity
Wolbachia infection in mosquitoes reduces dengue virus spread under specific lab conditions, prompting its use in disease control. Here, King et al. show that Wolbachia increases mean and variance in mosquito susceptibility and explain how this affects Wolbachia invasion and dengue transmission.
- Jessica G. King
- , Caetano Souto-Maior
- & M. Gabriela M. Gomes
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| Open AccessRole of monkeys in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in Senegal
The authors examine the role of monkey populations in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in the Kédougou region, Senegal. The authors show that monkeys are amplification hosts, as opposed to reservoir hosts for infection. These findings expand our knowledge of the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus in this region of Senegal.
- Benjamin M. Althouse
- , Mathilde Guerbois
- & Kathryn A. Hanley
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| Open AccessAgrochemicals increase risk of human schistosomiasis by supporting higher densities of intermediate hosts
Agrochemicals can affect the life cycle of human parasites in unexpected ways. Here, Halstead et al. show in mesocosm experiments that agrochemicals increase the density of snails hosting schistosome parasites, and modeling analysis suggests this could lead to increased risk of human schistosomiasis.
- Neal T. Halstead
- , Christopher M. Hoover
- & Jason R. Rohr
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| Open AccessAmphibian chytridiomycosis outbreak dynamics are linked with host skin bacterial community structure
Amphibian skin microbe communities have been putatively associated with the severity of chytrid fungal disease. Here, the authors show that different types of disease dynamics (enzootic versus epizootic) are associated with different microbiota in the host populations.
- Kieran A. Bates
- , Frances C. Clare
- & Xavier A. Harrison
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| Open AccessMultinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics
Fine scale mobile phone data is improving capacity to understand seasonal patterns in human movement. Here, the authors use multi-year movement data across three nations, as well as a model of pathogen spread, to understand the consequences of seasonal travel for disease dynamics.
- Amy Wesolowski
- , Elisabeth zu Erbach-Schoenberg
- & C. J. E. Metcalf
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| Open AccessWild bonobos host geographically restricted malaria parasites including a putative new Laverania species
Unlike chimpanzees and gorillas, bonobos have not been found infected by malaria parasites in the wild. Here, Liu et al. report more thorough survey and sequencing results showing that bonobos host malaria parasites, including a yet-unknown species, but only in the eastern-most part of their range.
- Weimin Liu
- , Scott Sherrill-Mix
- & Beatrice H. Hahn
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| Open AccessDistinct Campylobacter fetus lineages adapted as livestock pathogens and human pathobionts in the intestinal microbiota
Human infections with Campylobacter fetus are often assumed to be derived from livestock. Here, Iraola et al. provide evidence that healthy humans may act as carriers and dispersers, and C. fetus may have originated in humans as an intestinal pathobiont and then adapted as a livestock pathogen.
- Gregorio Iraola
- , Samuel C. Forster
- & Trevor D. Lawley
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| Open AccessCitizen science provides a reliable and scalable tool to track disease-carrying mosquitoes
Monitoring of the spread of invasive mosquitos is important both for preventing and for understanding disease outbreaks. Here the author report that a scalable citizen science system can provide accurate early warning of the invasion process of the Asian tiger mosquito in Spain, with far more scalable coverage than that of traditional surveillance methods.
- John R. B. Palmer
- , Aitana Oltra
- & Frederic Bartumeus
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| Open AccessGlobal hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases
The risk of epidemics originating from wild animals demands close monitoring of emerging infectious disease (EID) events and their predictors. Here, the authors update a global database of EID events, analyze their environmental and biological correlates, and present a new global hotspot map of zoonotic EID risk.
- Toph Allen
- , Kris A. Murray
- & Peter Daszak
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| Open AccessChytrid fungus infection in zebrafish demonstrates that the pathogen can parasitize non-amphibian vertebrate hosts
New infections of the amphibian chytrid fungus could arise from other animal reservoirs in the environment. Here, Liewet al. demonstrate that zebrafish can be infected by chytrid similarly to amphibians, expanding our understanding of how this pathogen can parasitize its hosts.
- Nicole Liew
- , Maria J. Mazon Moya
- & Serge Mostowy
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| Open AccessEnsemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates
Since its introduction to the US in 1999, the West Nile virus (WNV) has become endemic in the Americas. Here, the authors develop a model of WNV transmission dynamics between birds, mosquitoes and humans, which they integrate in conjunction with data assimilation methods, mosquito infection data and reported human cases in a New York county to show its utility for forecasting infection rates.
- Nicholas B. DeFelice
- , Eliza Little
- & Jeffrey Shaman
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| Open AccessAnthropogenic impacts on mosquito populations in North America over the past century
Insect populations have fluctuated enormously over the past century, with many changes being attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Rochlinet al. show that the pesticide DDT and increasing urbanization are more strongly associated with changes in the number and diversity of mosquitoes on both coasts of North America.
- Ilia Rochlin
- , Ary Faraji
- & A. Marm Kilpatrick
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| Open AccessContrasting emergence of Lyme disease across ecosystems
Environmental change is thought to have driven the recent emergence of Lyme disease in Europe. Using a decade of human disease incidence data across a large area in Norway, Mysterud et al.show that incidence correlates with deer population, but that deer population plays a limited role in recent disease emergence.
- Atle Mysterud
- , William Ryan Easterday
- & Hildegunn Viljugrein
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| Open AccessWolbachia infections in natural Anopheles populations affect egg laying and negatively correlate with Plasmodium development
Wolbachia bacteria infect insects and could potentially be used to control populations of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes. Here, the authors provide evidence that natural Wolbachia infections affect the rate of egg laying and are associated with reduced presence of malaria parasites in Anophelesmosquitoes.
- W. Robert Shaw
- , Perrine Marcenac
- & Flaminia Catteruccia
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| Open AccessCo-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease
Co-infection of plants with multiple pathogen strains is predicted to alter disease dynamics. Here, Susi et al.use experimental and natural population data to show that co-infected host plants spread more disease and cause more devastating epidemics than singly infected hosts.
- Hanna Susi
- , Benoit Barrès
- & Anna-Liisa Laine