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| Open AccessSeasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Accurate seasonal forecasts of sea ice are highly valuable, particularly in the context of sea ice loss due to global warming. A new machine learning tool for sea ice forecasting offers a substantial increase in accuracy over current physics-based dynamical model predictions.
- Tom R. Andersson
- , J. Scott Hosking
- & Emily Shuckburgh
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Article
| Open AccessThermohaline structure and circulation beneath the Langhovde Glacier ice shelf in East Antarctica
Basal melting of ice shelves is the principal driver of recent ice mass loss in Antarctica. The study reports comprehensive structures of temperature, salinity and current under an ice shelf in East Antarctica obtained by borehole measurements.
- Masahiro Minowa
- , Shin Sugiyama
- & Shigeru Aoki
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Article
| Open AccessHigh Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s
Multi-platform satellite observations document six decades of glacier mass balance variability across High Mountain Asia (HMA). Heterogeneous rates of ice loss reflect regional climatic differences, but ice loss is now pervasive across HMA even in regions formerly exhibiting slight mass gains.
- Atanu Bhattacharya
- , Tobias Bolch
- & Tandong Yao
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Article
| Open AccessHydraulic transmissivity inferred from ice-sheet relaxation following Greenland supraglacial lake drainages
Hydraulic transmissivity under the 1km-thick Greenland Ice Sheet was inferred by ice-sheet uplift relaxation after rapid lake drainage events. A two-order-of-magnitude increase in hydraulic transmissivity was found throughout the melt season.
- Ching-Yao Lai
- , Laura A. Stevens
- & Howard A. Stone
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| Open AccessOcean-bottom and surface seismometers reveal continuous glacial tremor and slip
Anomalously slow earthquakes play a critical role in the earthquake cycle and fault sliding. Here, the authors detect continuous seismic radiation from a glacier sliding over its bed and show persistent coastal shaking to represent an addition to the family of slow earthquakes.
- Evgeny A. Podolskiy
- , Yoshio Murai
- & Shin Sugiyama
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| Open AccessTiming of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting events in the subtropical North Atlantic
Sediment core analyses and numerical iceberg modeling suggest icebergs from the North American ice sheets were entrained in large glacial meltwater currents and drifted as far south as the Florida Keys several times during the past ~40,000 years.
- Alan Condron
- & Jenna C. Hill
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Article
| Open AccessA first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet
Melting at the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet is often disregarded as a source of quantifiable mass loss. In this study, the authors find the basal mass loss is equivalent to 8% of the ice sheet’s present imbalance, and that the loss of mass from basal melt is likely to increase in the future.
- Nanna B. Karlsson
- , Anne M. Solgaard
- & Robert S. Fausto
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| Open AccessObserved interannual changes beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation
New data from five hot-water drilled boreholes show how atmospheric anomalies affect the circulation beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf on multi-year time scales. The apparent link of the dense water formation to remote teleconnections is an important step for better predicting contributions to future sea level rise from this sector of Antarctica.
- Tore Hattermann
- , Keith W. Nicholls
- & Torsten Kanzow
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Article
| Open AccessThe poleward enhanced Arctic Ocean cooling machine in a warming climate
The Arctic Ocean cooling machine, currently the Barents Sea, plays a crucial role in both regulating the climate and determining the deep ocean circulation. Here the authors show that the efficiency of the cooling machine is poleward enhanced in a warming climate, which pushes Arctic Atlantification poleward.
- Qi Shu
- , Qiang Wang
- & Fangli Qiao
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Article
| Open AccessHealth and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia
Glaciers in High Mountain Asia are a key water resource. The authors use remote sensing data and a regional implementation of the continuity equation to quantify glacier ablation and accumulation rates for 2000–2016, and establish current climatic-geometric imbalances that imply strong reductions in ice volume by 2100.
- Evan Miles
- , Michael McCarthy
- & Francesca Pellicciotti
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Article
| Open AccessMarine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization
Ice-cliff failure that leads to marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat. Here, the authors use 3D glacier models to investigate ice-cliff failure, derive a retreat rate relationship, and quantify mélange back force necessary to suppress ice-cliff failure.
- Anna J. Crawford
- , Douglas I. Benn
- & Thomas Zwinger
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Article
| Open AccessTimescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios
In this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.
- Philipp de Vrese
- & Victor Brovkin
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Article
| Open AccessExtreme melt season ice layers reduce firn permeability across Greenland
The long-term impact of extreme surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet is poorly constrained. Here the authors use airborne radar to characterize a subsurface refrozen melt layer that formed following extreme melt in 2012, showing that it likely reduced drainage pathways for subsequent melt.
- Riley Culberg
- , Dustin M. Schroeder
- & Winnie Chu
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Article
| Open AccessMarginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill
Climate models struggle to track the response of Arctic sea ice to warming, leading to efforts to improve sea-ice models. Here the author shows standard model metrics are poor judges of the impact of model improvements, but a new one, marginal ice zone fraction, is optimally suited to this task.
- Christopher Horvat
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Article
| Open AccessThe anatomy of past abrupt warmings recorded in Greenland ice
Palaeodata resolution and dating limit the study of the sequence of changes across Earth during past abrupt warmings. Here, the authors show tight decadal-scale coupling between Greenland climate, North Atlantic sea ice and atmospheric circulation during these past events using two highly resolved ice-core records.
- E. Capron
- , S. O. Rasmussen
- & J. W. C. White
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Article
| Open AccessA reconciled solution of Meltwater Pulse 1A sources using sea-level fingerprinting
Meltwater Pulse 1A was the most rapid global sea-level rise event during the last deglaciation, but the source of the freshwater causing this rise is debated. Here, the authors use a data-driven inversion approach to show that the North American and Eurasian Ice Sheets were the dominant contributors.
- Yucheng Lin
- , Fiona D. Hibbert
- & Sarah L. Bradley
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Article
| Open AccessTwo-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change
New simulations find that one of Antarctica’s largest ice shelves, the Filchner–Ronne, may be less vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Melting of the ice shelf initially decreases for many decades, and only increases when global warming exceeds approximately 7 °C.
- Kaitlin A. Naughten
- , Jan De Rydt
- & Jeff K. Ridley
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased autumn and winter precipitation during the Last Glacial Maximum in the European Alps
What controlled changes of glaciers in the European Alps at the time of their largest extent, about 25,000 years ago, is not well known. Here, the authors use cryogenic carbonates in caves to show that heavy snowfall during autumn and early winter was the main source of glacier growth.
- C. Spötl
- , G. Koltai
- & H. Cheng
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Article
| Open AccessA new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years
The configuration of past ice sheets, and therefore sea level, is highly uncertain. Here, the authors provide a global reconstruction of ice sheets for the past 80,000 years that allows to test proxy based sea level reconstructions and helps to reconcile disagreements with sea level changes inferred from models.
- Evan J. Gowan
- , Xu Zhang
- & Gerrit Lohmann
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Article
| Open AccessWidespread increase in dynamic imbalance in the Getz region of Antarctica from 1994 to 2018
The Getz region of West Antarctica is losing ice at an increasing rate; however, the forcing mechanisms remain unclear. Here we show for the first time that since 1994, widespread speedup has occurred on the majority of glaciers in the Getz drainage basin, with some glaciers speeding up by over 44 %.
- Heather L. Selley
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Tae-Wan Kim
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| Open AccessObserved Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity
Climate models typically fail to capture the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion during recent decades. Here, the authors show that the observed expansion is reproduced in a climate model after removing biases in the sea ice drift velocity.
- Shantong Sun
- & Ian Eisenman
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Article
| Open AccessActive methanogenesis during the melting of Marinoan snowball Earth
The deglaciation of Marinoan snowball Earth (~635 Myr ago) has been associated with potentially extensive CH4 emissions in relation to transient marine euxinia. Here, the authors find that active methanogenesis occurred during the termination of Marinoan snowball Earth, fueled by methyl sulfide production in sulfidic seawater.
- Zhouqiao Zhao
- , Bing Shen
- & Haoran Ma
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Article
| Open AccessJarosite formation in deep Antarctic ice provides a window into acidic, water-limited weathering on Mars
The authors report in-situ formation of jarosite witin the Talos Dome ice core (East Antarctica) and show that this ferric-potassium sulfate mineral is present in ice deeper than 1000 meters and progressively increases with depth. This has implications for the presence and formation mechanisms of jarosite observed on Mars.
- Giovanni Baccolo
- , Barbara Delmonte
- & Massimo Frezzotti
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Article
| Open AccessAnomalous collapses of Nares Strait ice arches leads to enhanced export of Arctic sea ice
Ice arches that form along Nares Strait, which separates Greenland and Ellesmere Island, act to reduce the export of thick multi-year ice out of the Arctic. Here, we show that there has been a recent trend towards shorter duration arch formation that has resulted in enhanced transport of ice along the strait.
- G. W. K. Moore
- , S. E. L. Howell
- & K. McNeil
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| Open AccessGreater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
The potential contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level rise in the future is known to be substantial. Here, the authors undertake new modelling showing that the Greenland Ice Sheet sea level rise contribution is 7.9 cm more using the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario compared to CMIP5 using multiple RCP8.5 simulations.
- Stefan Hofer
- , Charlotte Lang
- & Xavier Fettweis
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Article
| Open AccessIceberg melting substantially modifies oceanic heat flux towards a major Greenlandic tidewater glacier
Iceberg melting releases large volumes of freshwater in fjords, yet the impact on oceanic heat delivery to tidewater glaciers is unknown. Here the authors show that iceberg melting invigorates fjord circulation in a large, iceberg-congested fjord, thereby increasing oceanic heat delivery to its tidewater glaciers.
- B. J. Davison
- , T. R. Cowton
- & A. J. Sole
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Article
| Open AccessCentennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise and understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improved projections. Here the authors show Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers will likely exceed current worst-case scenario
- Shfaqat A. Khan
- , Anders A. Bjørk
- & Toni Schenk
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Article
| Open AccessAlaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments
Warming in the high latitudes is expected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition which leads to enhanced carbon emissions. Here, the authors show that short-term experiments do not capture the complexity of vegetation dynamics in the Arctic and might thus not provide a full picture of long term processes.
- Nicholas J. Bouskill
- , William J. Riley
- & Robert F. Grant
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43°C.
- Nico Wunderling
- , Matteo Willeit
- & Ricarda Winkelmann
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Article
| Open AccessInterglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland
This study presents a new definition of interglacials during the Quaternary. The authors find the appearance of interglacials is in general following the 41-kyr cycle of obliquity with various exceptions, suggesting a more complex physical mechanism triggering glacial terminations.
- Peter Köhler
- & Roderik S. W. van de Wal
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Article
| Open AccessLocal-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics
Carbon stored in the Arctic is threatened by climate change, but models do not capture the local-scale heterogeneity that influences carbon dynamics. Here the authors refine tundra models to account for heterogeneity, finding improved projections and decreased uncertainty in assessing the fate of carbon.
- M. J. Lara
- , A. D. McGuire
- & S. D. Wullschleger
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Article
| Open AccessLow elevation of Svalbard glaciers drives high mass loss variability
Svalbard glaciers are among the lowest ice masses in the Arctic, with a peak in glacier area below 450 m elevation. Using a high-resolution climate model, here the authors show that a modest warming in the mid-1980s propagated meltwater runoff above the glacier area peak, amplifying Svalbard mass loss from all elevations.
- Brice Noël
- , C. L. Jakobs
- & M. R. van den Broeke
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Article
| Open AccessCanadian permafrost stores large pools of ammonium and optically distinct dissolved organic matter
Arctic warming leads to permafrost thaw and release of previously frozen organic matter and nutrients, but characterization of these pools is lacking. Here the authors use soil cores across Northern Canada to investigate dissolved organic matter and nitrogen stored in permafrost soils.
- J. Fouché
- , C. T. Christiansen
- & S. F. Lamoureux
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Article
| Open AccessStrong ice-ocean interaction beneath Shirase Glacier Tongue in East Antarctica
East Antarctic ice shelves typically have cold ice cavities with low basal melt rates. Here the authors direct observational evidence of high basal melt rates beneath Shirase Glacier Tongue in East Antarctica, driven by inflowing warm water guided by a deep continuous trough extending to the continental slope.
- Daisuke Hirano
- , Takeshi Tamura
- & Shigeru Aoki
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Article
| Open AccessImpact heat driven volatile redistribution at Occator crater on Ceres as a comparative planetary process
Dawn mission’s second extended phase provided high resolution observations of Occator crater of the dwarf planet Ceres. Here, the authors show stereo imaging and topographic maps of this crater revealing the influence of crustal composition on impact related melt and hydrothermal processes, and compare features to those on Mars, Earth and the Moon.
- P. Schenk
- , J. Scully
- & C. Raymond
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Article
| Open AccessRapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century
Glaciers in the European Alps are strongly affected by global warming, yet there is no methodologically consistent alpine-wide analysis on glacier changes. Here the authors show significant glacier retreat and an ice mass loss of 1.3 ± 0.2 Gt a−1, derived from contemporaneous measurements of glacier areas and elevations.
- Christian Sommer
- , Philipp Malz
- & Matthias H. Braun
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: “Impact of marine processes on flow dynamics of northern Antarctic Peninsula outlet glaciers” by Rott et al.
- Peter A. Tuckett
- , Jeremy C. Ely
- & J. Melchior van Wessem
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessImpact of marine processes on flow dynamics of northern Antarctic Peninsula outlet glaciers
- Helmut Rott
- , Jan Wuite
- & Wolfgang Rack
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Article
| Open AccessRemote sensing reveals Antarctic green snow algae as important terrestrial carbon sink
Snow algae bloom along the coast of Antarctica and are likely to be biogeochemically important. Here, the authors produced the first map of such blooms, show that they are driven by warmer temperatures and proximity to birds and mammals, and are likely to increase given projected climate changes.
- Andrew Gray
- , Monika Krolikowski
- & Matthew P. Davey
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Article
| Open AccessMitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Rising temperatures in the Arctic can lead to the release of vast amounts of carbon stored in permafrost soils. Here the authors show that stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering can help to avoid about 14 gigatons of carbon release and US$8.4 trillion in economic losses by 2070 compared to RCP4.5 emissions.
- Yating Chen
- , Aobo Liu
- & John C. Moore
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Article
| Open AccessDistributed acoustic sensing of microseismic sources and wave propagation in glaciated terrain
In this study, Walter and colleagues deploy a 1 km long fiber optics cable on a glacier surface. Via the use of distributed acoustic sensing, the authors are capable of monitoring glacier dynamics and Alpine mass movements.
- F. Walter
- , D. Gräff
- & A. Fichtner
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Article
| Open AccessFast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate
Siberian Arctic permafrost contains vast stores of carbon, the fate of which is dependent on the climate. Here the authors use models of future scenarios to show that under the direst climate changes up to 2/3 of the stored organic carbon could thaw.
- Jan Nitzbon
- , Sebastian Westermann
- & Julia Boike
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Article
| Open AccessSediment controls dynamic behavior of a Cordilleran Ice Stream at the Last Glacial Maximum
Tidewater glaciers in fjords can advance/retreat independent of climate due to stabilization by sediments at their termini. We show that an Alaskan paleo-ice stream behaved similarly on an open shelf, suggesting that increased sediment flux may delay catastrophic retreat of outlet glaciers in a warming world.
- Ellen A. Cowan
- , Sarah D. Zellers
- & Stewart J. Fallon
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Article
| Open AccessEast Siberian Arctic inland waters emit mostly contemporary carbon
The release of ancient carbon from thawing permafrost is thought to have an important impact on global biogeochemistry through positive feedbacks. Here Dean and colleagues show that in Siberian permafrost, warming could liberate more contemporary carbon relative to aged counterparts.
- Joshua F. Dean
- , Ove H. Meisel
- & A. Johannes Dolman
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Comment
| Open AccessNASA’s Europa Clipper—a mission to a potentially habitable ocean world
Jupiter’s satellite Europa almost certainly hides a global saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Chemistry at the ice surface and ocean-rock interface might provide the building blocks for life, and NASA’s Europa Clipper mission will assess Europa’s habitability.
- Samuel M. Howell
- & Robert T. Pappalardo
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Article
| Open AccessThe empirical basis for modelling glacial erosion rates
Glaciers have profoundly shaped Earth’s surface, but glacial erosion models lack a strong empirical basis. Cook et al. have compiled a dataset that illustrates how the speed at which glaciers move controls the rate at which they erode, and that climate is crucial in modulating glacier sliding speed and erosion rates.
- Simon J. Cook
- , Darrel A. Swift
- & Richard I. Waller
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss
The freshwater content of the Beaufort Gyre in the Western Arctic Ocean has increased in response to almost two decades of persistent anti-cyclonic winds. Here, the authors found that dramatic loss of sea ice and acceleration of surface currents after 2007 led to a net annual wind energy input to the Beaufort Gyre, and anticipate that continued sea ice decline will lead to an increasingly energetic Beaufort Gyre.
- Thomas W. K. Armitage
- , Georgy E. Manucharyan
- & Andrew F. Thompson
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Article
| Open AccessMidwinter Arctic leads form and dissipate low clouds
Cracks in Arctic sea ice (leads) are becoming more prevalent and widespread, yet studies regarding their impacts on clouds are limited. Here, contrary to the present understanding, diverse observations and modelling simulations show that higher leads concentrations do not necessarily result in more low clouds.
- Xia Li
- , Steven K. Krueger
- & Sally Benson
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Article
| Open AccessSeawater softening of suture zones inhibits fracture propagation in Antarctic ice shelves
Suture zones are abundant on Antarctic ice shelves and widely observed to impede fracture propagation. Here we show that fracture detainment is principally controlled by the zones’ enhanced seawater contents, reducing fracture-driving stresses by orders of magnitude and therefore greatly enhancing stability.
- Bernd Kulessa
- , Adam D. Booth
- & Bryn Hubbard