Featured
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Article |
Asia’s glaciers are a regionally important buffer against drought
Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia provide a uniquely drought-resilient source of water, supplying summer meltwater sufficient for the basic needs of 136 million people.
- Hamish D. Pritchard
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Letter |
High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes
A freely available dataset produced from three million Landsat satellite images reveals substantial changes in the distribution of global surface water over the past 32 years and their causes, from climate change to human actions.
- Jean-François Pekel
- , Andrew Cottam
- & Alan S. Belward
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Letter |
Fluvial sediment supply to a mega-delta reduced by shifting tropical-cyclone activity
About a third of the sediment delivery of the Mekong River is shown to be associated with rainfall generated by tropical cyclones, suggesting that future delta stability will be strongly moderated by changes to tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and track.
- Stephen E. Darby
- , Christopher R. Hackney
- & Rolf Aalto
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Letter
| Open AccessIon-induced nucleation of pure biogenic particles
Aerosol particles can form in the atmosphere by nucleation of highly oxidized biogenic vapours in the absence of sulfuric acid, with ions from Galactic cosmic rays increasing the nucleation rate by one to two orders of magnitude compared with neutral nucleation.
- Jasper Kirkby
- , Jonathan Duplissy
- & Joachim Curtius
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Letter |
Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States
Population-weighted analysis of US weather conditions shows that the nation’s weather has generally become more pleasant since 1974, possibly explaining the lack of broad public support for action on climate change; projections of future US weather indicate that conditions will probably worsen.
- Patrick J. Egan
- & Megan Mullin
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Letter |
Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation
Reconstruction of the activity of ice streams operating during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet reveals that the number of ice streams and their total discharge decreased as the total volume of the ice sheet decreased, suggesting that ice stream activity did not accelerate the collapse of the ice sheet.
- C. R. Stokes
- , M. Margold
- & L. Tarasov
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Perspective |
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries.
- Sonia I. Seneviratne
- , Markus G. Donat
- & Robert L. Wilby
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Letter |
Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production
Analyses of the effects of extreme weather disasters on global crop production over the past five decades show that drought and extreme heat reduced national cereal production by 9–10%, whereas no discernible effect at the national level was seen for floods and extreme cold; droughts affect yields and the harvested area, whereas extreme heat mainly affects yields.
- Corey Lesk
- , Pedram Rowhani
- & Navin Ramankutty
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Letter |
Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations
Recent work has suggested that sections of the West Antarctic ice sheet are already rapidly retreating, raising concerns about increased sea-level rise; now, an ice-sheet model is used to simulate the mass loss from the entire Antarctic ice sheet to 2200, suggesting that it could contribute up to 30 cm of sea-level rise by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200, but is unlikely to contribute more.
- Catherine Ritz
- , Tamsin L. Edwards
- & Richard C. A. Hindmarsh
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Letter |
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
Economic productivity is shown to peak at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and decline at high temperatures, indicating that climate change is expected to lower global incomes more than 20% by 2100.
- Marshall Burke
- , Solomon M. Hsiang
- & Edward Miguel
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Letter |
Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends
This study identifies statistically significant trends in mid-atmospheric circulation patterns that partially explain observed changes in extreme temperature occurrence over Eurasia and North America; although the underlying cause of circulation pattern trends remains uncertain, most extreme temperature trends are shown to be consistent with thermodynamic warming.
- Daniel E. Horton
- , Nathaniel C. Johnson
- & Noah S. Diffenbaugh
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Review Article |
Pacific western boundary currents and their roles in climate
A review of western boundary currents in the Pacific Ocean explores their far-reaching influence on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Indonesian Throughflow, Asian monsoons, and ocean circulation in the South China Sea, and concludes that major conceptual and technical progress will be needed to close the regional mass budget and provide robust projections of Pacific western boundary currents in a changing climate.
- Dunxin Hu
- , Lixin Wu
- & William S. Kessler
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Letter |
Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations
The circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, interpreted via the sea level gradient along the US coast, is found to respond to atmospheric drivers from the North Atlantic Oscillation, and in turn influences the oceanic temperature changes characterized by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; in this way, ocean circulation acts as the intermediary between atmospheric and ocean oscillations.
- Gerard D. McCarthy
- , Ivan D. Haigh
- & David A. Smeed
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Letter |
Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change
An ensemble of climate models shows that by the end of the twenty-first century the coastal upwelling season near the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans will start earlier, end later and become more intense at high latitudes, thus becoming more homogeneous; these changes may affect the geographical distribution of marine biodiversity.
- Daiwei Wang
- , Tarik C. Gouhier
- & Auroop R. Ganguly
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Letter |
Recharge of a subglacial lake by surface meltwater in northeast Greenland
Observations of rapid, persistent elevation gains that occur on the ice surface above a subglacial lake as the lake is refilled with surface meltwater during the summer melt period in Greenland show that surface meltwater may be trapped and stored at the bed of an ice sheet, affecting ice dynamics downstream.
- Michael J. Willis
- , Bradley G. Herried
- & Robin E. Bell
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Brief Communications Arising |
Mora et al. reply
- Camilo Mora
- , Abby G. Frazier
- & Thomas W. Giambelluca
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Brief Communications Arising |
Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates
- Ed Hawkins
- , Bruce Anderson
- & Gabriel Vecchi
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Letter |
Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming
Extreme positive-Indian-Ocean-dipole events cause devastating floods in eastern tropical Africa and severe droughts in Asia; increasing greenhouse gas emissions will make these dipole events about three times more frequent in the twenty-first century.
- Wenju Cai
- , Agus Santoso
- & Toshio Yamagata
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Letter |
The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity
Analysis of global historical data in the Northern and Southern hemispheres reveals a statistically significant, poleward migration of 1° per decade in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years.
- James P. Kossin
- , Kerry A. Emanuel
- & Gabriel A. Vecchi
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Letter |
Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition
The largest assemblage so far of published data shows that C3 crops have decreased zinc and iron levels under CO2 conditions predicted for the middle of this century, with worldwide nutritional implications.
- Samuel S. Myers
- , Antonella Zanobetti
- & Yasuhiro Usui
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Letter |
Widespread decline of Congo rainforest greenness in the past decade
The long-term drying trend in central African rainforests might help to explain satellite-detected large-scale vegetation browning in the Congolese forests.
- Liming Zhou
- , Yuhong Tian
- & Taehee Hwang
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Letter |
Decoupling of soil nutrient cycles as a function of aridity in global drylands
Soil samples collected from 224 dryland sites around the world show that aridity affects the concentration of organic carbon and total nitrogen differently from the concentration of inorganic phosphorus, suggesting that any predicted increase in aridity with climate change could uncouple the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in drylands and negatively affect the services provided by these ecosystems.
- Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo
- , Fernando T. Maestre
- & Eli Zaady
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Letter |
Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise
Present-day forests use water more efficiently, probably owing to the effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on leaf stomata, which partially close to maintain a near-constant level of carbon dioxide inside the leaves despite increasing atmospheric levels.
- Trevor F. Keenan
- , David Y. Hollinger
- & Andrew D. Richardson
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Review Article |
Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change
A review of the past six years of research on ice-sheet mass-balance change shows that accelerated loss from Greenland is a robust finding, but that loss from Antarctica is probably far lower than previously thought.
- Edward Hanna
- , Francisco J. Navarro
- & H. Jay Zwally
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Letter |
Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability
A linear relationship between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 to tropical temperature anomalies provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change.
- Peter M. Cox
- , David Pearson
- & Catherine M. Luke
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Letter |
Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions
The resilience of a global sample of ecosystems to an increase in drought conditions is assessed, comparing data from the early twenty-first with the late twentieth century; results indicate a cross-ecosystem capacity for tolerating low precipitation and responding to high precipitation during recent warm drought and yet suggest a threshold to resilience with prolonged warm drought.
- Guillermo E. Ponce-Campos
- , M. Susan Moran
- & Patrick J. Starks
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News Explainer |
Hurricane Sandy spins up climate discussion
Destructive power of US east-coast storm stems from factors that include — but are not limited to — global warming.
- Jeff Tollefson
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News |
Mammoths didn't go out with a bang
Study suggests Beringia’s shaggy behemoths went extinct after a slow and gradual decline.
- Brian Switek
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News |
Humans implicated in Africa's deforestation
Climate change alone cannot explain abrupt loss of rainforest 3,000 years ago, study suggests.
- Katherine Rowland
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News |
Citizen scientists' climate-impact survey wraps up
Forest-monitoring project has measured 150,000 trees and provided researchers with reams of data.
- Priya Shetty
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News |
Global warming wilts malaria
Transmission of infectious parasites slows with rising temperatures, researchers find.
- Zoë Corbyn
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Comment |
High risk of permafrost thaw
Northern soils will release huge amounts of carbon in a warmer world, say Edward A. G. Schuur, Benjamin Abbott and the Permafrost Carbon Network.
- Edward A. G. Schuur
- & Benjamin Abbott
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News |
Climate panel says prepare for weird weather
Despite uncertainties, the IPCC warns that climate change will bring more extreme weather.
- Quirin Schiermeier
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Research Highlights |
Mediterranean drying
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News & Views |
Man-made cyclones
A recent surge in the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea has brought unprecedented damage and loss of life. Anthropogenic air pollution might be increasing the destructiveness of these storms. See Letter p.94
- Ryan L. Sriver
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Comment |
The next dust bowl
Drought is the most pressing problem caused by climate change. It receives too little attention, says Joseph Romm.
- Joseph Romm
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News |
Climate change ignites wildfire fears for Yellowstone
Increased temperatures could bring large blazes every year from the middle of this century.
- Sid Perkins
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News |
Funding to help save plant diversity secured
Scientists warn of the dangers of diminishing crop genetic reserves.
- Natasha Gilbert
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Books & Arts |
Books in brief
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Research Highlights |
More sneezing in a warmer world
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News |
Mega-drought threat to US Southwest
Global warming could tip region towards repeat of Pleistocene events.
- Quirin Schiermeier
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News & Views |
Human influence on rainfall
Rising concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may already be influencing the intensity of rainfall and increasing the risk of substantial damage from the associated flooding. See Letters p.378 & p.382
- Richard P. Allan
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News |
Increased flood risk linked to global warming
Likelihood of extreme rainfall may have been doubled by rising greenhouse-gas levels.
- Quirin Schiermeier
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News |
Climate change threatens Europe's living standards
Southern Europe could face tens of billions in losses, but northern Europe may benefit.
- Nicola Jones
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News |
Polar bears could survive on persisting ice
But Arctic ice must be protected from oil and pollution.
- Nicola Jones
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News |
Plants flowering later on the Tibetan Plateau
Shorter growing season linked to warmer winters on 'the roof of the world'.
- Hannah Hoag
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News |
Coral bleaching goes from bad to worse
Raised ocean temperatures result in severe damage to reefs in the Caribbean.
- Melissa Gaskill