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| Open AccessAligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks
Aligning the IPCC-assessed mitigation pathways with the national greenhouse gas inventories shows that key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve, requiring achieving earlier net-zero and lower cumulative emissions.
- Matthew J. Gidden
- , Thomas Gasser
- & Keywan Riahi
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Article
| Open AccessNatural short-lived halogens exert an indirect cooling effect on climate
Short-lived halogens have a substantial indirect cooling effect on climate and this cooling effect has increased since pre-industrial times owing to anthropogenic amplification of natural halogen emissions.
- Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
- , Rafael P. Fernandez
- & Jean-François Lamarque
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Article
| Open AccessSafe and just Earth system boundaries
We find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.
- Johan Rockström
- , Joyeeta Gupta
- & Xin Zhang
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Matters Arising |
On the evidence of a trend in the CO2 airborne fraction
- Mikkel Bennedsen
- , Eric Hillebrand
- & Siem Jan Koopman
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Article
| Open AccessLunar eclipses illuminate timing and climate impact of medieval volcanism
Analysis of contemporary reports of total lunar eclipses, combined with aerosol model simulations and tree-ring-based climate proxies, allowed greater precision in dating of the occurrence of stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the High Medieval Period.
- Sébastien Guillet
- , Christophe Corona
- & Markus Stoffel
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Review Article |
Revisiting the Holocene global temperature conundrum
Examination of available evidence on whether anthropogenic global warming was preceded by a long-term warming trend or by global cooling provides support for a relatively mild millennial-scale global thermal maximum during the mid-Holocene.
- Darrell S. Kaufman
- & Ellie Broadman
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Article
| Open AccessStrong cloud–circulation coupling explains weak trade cumulus feedback
Analysis of new observations from the EUREC4A field campaign shows that lower-tropospheric mixing does not desiccate the base of trade cumulus clouds, refuting the mixing-desiccation hypothesis and explaining the weak trade cumulus feedback.
- Raphaela Vogel
- , Anna Lea Albright
- & Sandrine Bony
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: The risks of overstating the climate benefits of ecosystem restoration
- Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
- , Alvaro Iribarrem
- & Piero Visconti
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Article |
Integrated ozone depletion as a metric for ozone recovery
An integrated ozone depletion metric indicates the impact of any new emission and provides a useful complementary metric of the impact of specific emissions of an ozone depleting substance for both the scientific and policy communities.
- John A. Pyle
- , James Keeble
- & Paul T. Griffiths
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: Concerns of assuming linearity in the reconstruction of thermal maxima
- Samantha Bova
- , Yair Rosenthal
- & Weipeng Zheng
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Article |
RETRACTED ARTICLE: New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO2 airborne fraction
By generating a land use and land cover change emissions dataset using visibility data from two key deforestation regions, analysis of the data suggests a decrease in the CO2 airborne fraction since 1959.
- Margreet J. E. van Marle
- , Dave van Wees
- & Guido. R. van der Werf
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Article |
Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
Model simulations show that the historical relationship between global temperature and precipitation under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario lowers the projected high end of future precipitation change.
- Hideo Shiogama
- , Masahiro Watanabe
- & Nagio Hirota
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Article |
Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970
A study uses a temperature-percentile water mass framework to analyse warm-to-cold poleward transport of freshwater in the Earth system, and establishes a constraint to help address biases in climate models.
- Taimoor Sohail
- , Jan D. Zika
- & John A. Church
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: Non-trivial role of internal climate feedback on interglacial temperature evolution
- Samantha Bova
- , Yair Rosenthal
- & Cheng Zeng
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Article |
Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum
Paleoclimate datasets are integrated with a climate model to reconstruct global surface temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum, showing sustained warming until the mid-Holocene.
- Matthew B. Osman
- , Jessica E. Tierney
- & Christopher J. Poulsen
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Article |
Episodic deluges in simulated hothouse climates
Through an idealized set of simulations, with a model that incorporates key physics, research reveals dramatic swings between massive rainfall events and extended dry periods in hothouse climates.
- Jacob T. Seeley
- & Robin D. Wordsworth
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Article |
Direct radiative effects of airborne microplastics
Preliminary modelling of airborne microplastics suggests that they may be exerting a minor cooling influence on the present-day atmosphere, and continued production could have increasing effects on the climate system in future.
- Laura E. Revell
- , Peter Kuma
- & Sally Gaw
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Article |
The contribution of insects to global forest deadwood decomposition
Multi-year field experiments across six continents suggest that insects have an important contribution to decomposition and carbon release from forest deadwood.
- Sebastian Seibold
- , Werner Rammer
- & Jörg Müller
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Article |
The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink
Modelling suggests that the Montreal Protocol may be mitigating climate change by protecting the land carbon sink, as well as by protecting the ozone layer and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Paul J. Young
- , Anna B. Harper
- & Rolando R. Garcia
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Article |
Precise date for the Laacher See eruption synchronizes the Younger Dryas
A revised date for the Laacher See eruption using measurements of subfossil trees shifts the chronology of European varved lakes relative to the Greenland ice core record, synchronizing the onset of the Younger Dryas across the North Atlantic–European sector.
- Frederick Reinig
- , Lukas Wacker
- & Ulf Büntgen
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Article |
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica
An observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model suggests that global warming of 3 °C will trigger rapid Antarctic ice loss, contributing about 0.5 cm per year of sea-level rise by 2100.
- Robert M. DeConto
- , David Pollard
- & Andrea Dutton
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Article |
Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
Efficient statistical emulation of melting land ice under various climate scenarios to 2100 indicates a contribution from melting land ice to sea level increase of at least 13 centimetres sea level equivalent.
- Tamsin L. Edwards
- , Sophie Nowicki
- & Thomas Zwinger
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Review Article |
Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate
Ongoing global warming is likely to cause tipping point thresholds to be passed, but an abrupt system change can still be avoided if the warming is reversed quickly relative to the timescale of the tipping element.
- Paul D. L. Ritchie
- , Joseph J. Clarke
- & Chris Huntingford
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Article
| Open AccessSoil moisture–atmosphere feedback dominates land carbon uptake variability
Factorial climate model simulations show that 90% of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake is driven by soil moisture and its atmospheric feedback on temperature and air humidity.
- Vincent Humphrey
- , Alexis Berg
- & Christian Frankenberg
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Article |
Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial
Reanalysis of Holocene sea surface temperature records affirms the role of retreating ice and rising greenhouse gases in driving a steady increase in global temperatures over the past 12,000 years.
- Samantha Bova
- , Yair Rosenthal
- & Mi Yan
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Article |
Antarctic ice dynamics amplified by Northern Hemisphere sea-level forcing
Changes in Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet size during ice-age cycles enhance the advance and retreat of the grounding line of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, owing to interhemispheric sea-level forcing.
- Natalya Gomez
- , Michael E. Weber
- & Holly K. Han
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Article |
High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea surface temperature
The response of tropical precipitation to variation in sea surface temperature is stronger than in most climate models, with cool and warm ocean regions linked by strong shallow atmospheric circulations.
- Peter Good
- , Robin Chadwick
- & Stephanie S. Rushley
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Article |
Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming
Modelling experiments show that the El Niño response to global warming is self-modulating and depends on its historical variability; if current variability is high, future variability will be low.
- Wenju Cai
- , Benjamin Ng
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article |
Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited
A compilation of proxy data are used with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to constrain cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum, producing estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity that agree well with the current consensus range.
- Jessica E. Tierney
- , Jiang Zhu
- & Christopher J. Poulsen
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Article |
North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply
Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.
- D. M. Smith
- , A. A. Scaife
- & L. Zhang
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Article |
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.
- Jens Terhaar
- , Lester Kwiatkowski
- & Laurent Bopp
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Article |
Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth
Multi-proxy core data and model simulations support the presence of temperate rainforests near the South Pole during mid-Cretaceous warmth, indicating very high CO2 levels and the absence of Antarctic ice.
- Johann P. Klages
- , Ulrich Salzmann
- & M. Scheinert
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Article |
Human origins in a southern African palaeo-wetland and first migrations
Analyses of mitochondrial genomes from populations in southern Africa provide evidence of a southern African origin of anatomically modern humans and a sustained occupation of the homeland before the first migrations of people appear to be driven by regional climate shifts.
- Eva K. F. Chan
- , Axel Timmermann
- & Vanessa M. Hayes
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Letter |
A large source of cloud condensation nuclei from new particle formation in the tropics
Widespread formation of new particles from condensable vapours observed in the tropical upper troposphere is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere, affecting cloud properties.
- Christina J. Williamson
- , Agnieszka Kupc
- & Charles A. Brock
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Letter |
Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels
Scenarios that model a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels find no substantial near-term increase in the rate of warming, and suggest benefits for climate change mitigation and air quality at essentially all timescales.
- Drew Shindell
- & Christopher J. Smith
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Letter |
Rapid expansion of Greenland’s low-permeability ice slabs
Observations and regional climate models show that the increasing coverage of ice slabs on the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a global sea-level rise of up to 74 millimetres by 2100.
- M. MacFerrin
- , H. Machguth
- & W. Abdalati
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Article |
A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
Fundamental value judgments about acceptable maximum levels of climate change and future reliance on controversial technologies can be made explicitly in climate scenarios, thereby addressing the intergenerational bias present in the scenario literature.
- Joeri Rogelj
- , Daniel Huppmann
- & Malte Meinshausen
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Article |
Antarctic offshore polynyas linked to Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies
Measurements collected during recent polynya events in the Southern Ocean reveal that these sea ice openings formed as a result of weakened stratification and severe storms and were sustained by deep overturning.
- Ethan C. Campbell
- , Earle A. Wilson
- & Lynne D. Talley
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Article |
Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as at the beginning of the twentieth century.
- Kate Marvel
- , Benjamin I. Cook
- & A. Park Williams
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Article |
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
Increased meltwater from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will slow the Atlantic overturning circulation and warm the subsurface ocean around Antarctica, further increasing Antarctic ice loss.
- Nicholas R. Golledge
- , Elizabeth D. Keller
- & Tamsin L. Edwards
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Article |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated.
- Tamsin L. Edwards
- , Mark A. Brandon
- & Andreas Wernecke
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Letter |
Twentieth-century contribution to sea-level rise from uncharted glaciers
From 1901 to 2015, missing and disappeared glaciers produced a rise in sea level that may enable the historical budget for global-mean sea-level rise to be closed without recourse to an undiscovered physical process.
- David Parkes
- & Ben Marzeion
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Article |
Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater
Accounting for meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet in simulations of global climate leads to substantial changes in future climate projections and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.
- Ben Bronselaer
- , Michael Winton
- & Joellen L. Russell
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Article |
Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events
Climate model simulations reveal that recent destructive tropical cyclones would have been equally intense in terms of wind speed but would have produced less rainfall if these events had occurred in pre-industrial climates, and in future climates they would have greater wind speeds and rainfall.
- Christina M. Patricola
- & Michael F. Wehner
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Brief Communications Arising |
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity
- Martin Rypdal
- , Hege-Beate Fredriksen
- & Rebekka J. Steene
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Brief Communications Arising |
Climate constraint reflects forced signal
- Stephen Po-Chedley
- , Cristian Proistosescu
- & Benjamin D. Santer
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Brief Communications Arising |
Cox et al. reply
- Peter M. Cox
- , Mark S. Williamson
- & Chris Huntingford
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Brief Communications Arising |
Assumptions for emergent constraints
- Patrick T. Brown
- , Martin B. Stolpe
- & Ken Caldeira
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Letter |
Hydraulic diversity of forests regulates ecosystem resilience during drought
The diversity in the hydraulic traits of trees mediates ecosystem resilience to drought and will probably have an important role in future ecosystem–atmosphere feedback effects.
- William R. L. Anderegg
- , Alexandra G. Konings
- & Nicole Zenes